Posted by yurivish 3 hours ago
Perhaps scaling to fable for the first time also gave Opus a push (distillation?)
> we would reach extreme superintelligence within a year
What does infinite capabilities mean? How about putting the growth on a log scale and see how that curve might look?
What the hell is extreme superintelligence?
Since the sequence 6+3+1.5+0.75+... never actually reaches 12 (geometric series), within a year they capabilities would have already been 'doubled' infinitely many times.
Obviously this argument relies on a ton of spherical cow assumptions (and the author does acknowledge this), but i think there overall point is correct that this form of growth (where time horizons compress) is _even faster_ than exponential growth.
AIs do not kill people, people kill people.
A simple thought experiment - imagine AI discovers a way to make nuclear bombs capable of destroying the entire world radically more cheaply and accessibly with common items anyone can purchase. AI can help anyone build these nukes trivially. Even if the AI and the nukes don’t kill people on their own, do you want literally every human on earth to have this power in their pocket? Do you think it would be a net positive outcome for us vs a world where that’s not the case?
I dont think super intelligence will be here in a year, I think within a year AI/llms will have a similar sentiment surrounding them that NFTs do know (it already does for most normies). And most people will be recovering from a hype induced mania they lived in for two years straight.
Of course its more useful than NFTs, but when there's no giant bag to farm these hype monsters will inevitably disappear.
The bags are drying up fortunately and tokens/inference seems to be experiencing deflation, and hardware prices will eventually pop and contribute to further deflation, Then all the bag chasers will move back to crypto or whatever gets hot next.
Therefore it cannot avoid taxes the way they did before (using shell companies to route the money through tax havens). It'll be expensive, every government will double the price or more, and you're selling to consumers, and the products will be at the mercy of every government where they try to sell AI and other services.
People don't get how serious this is. If AI doubles revenue but drives silicon valley firms' tax rates from 5% to 10%, it's a loss.
Add to that that it's something silicon valley firms have never done before.
Would you rather make $1,000,000 and pay $50,000 in taxes, or make $2,000,000 and pay $200,000 in taxes?
Unless you’re terrible at math, i feel like i’m missing something ;)