Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms?

Posted by nuwandavek 18 hours ago

Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms?(app.artifactbin.dev)

I've heard so much about how prediction markets are the guiding light in this dark world. But when put head to head against polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model, they are really a wash. Especially looking at flipped or close-by-polls races, there is no alpha compared to a traditional poll-based model. Was this obvious to everyone else too? Can we treat them like the entertainment they are and tax them for the terrible ads?

34 points | 20 commentspage 2

unclebucknasty 16 hours ago|

>But when put head to head against polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model, they are really a wash

I'm actually not a fan of prediction markets for reasons.

But, them being "a wash" with fancy-pants models and expensive, not super-efficient polling processes is actually pretty remarkable.

fsckboy 16 hours ago|

what are people suggesting is the "right" way for prediction markets to indicate that they are accurate? what should prediction market prices be if they are predicting accurately?

if you can predict accurately, you will win all your plays. If who you are predicting is the favorite, and the favorite wins, you will earn less money than if you can predict the upsets. That's what the markets do, you do the predicting, the market rewards you.