Hundreds of billions in future liabilities.
IPO valuation above $1 trillion.
The lunatics are running the asylum.
Reporting an increase in the value of the company as a loss is weird, but they have to do it. this is a case where adjusted earnings give a better idea of how the business is going.
So their loss is actually small compared to revenue.
Old-school fundamentals are laughed at or handwaved away. FOMO rules the day. "If Anthropic is the first to AGI, it'll take over every industry and go to the moon!"
Yet to be seen if it tarnishes.
Meanwhile the hyper advanced software company's shitty electron app still flickers so bad on a high refresh monitor that it should require an epilepsy warning. I'll never understand the love for Anthropic, they legitimately have the worst software I have used outside of Microsoft.
Deepseek and other Chinese models are close enough for most typical use cases.
This could seriously wreck our entire economy, so much of the stock market is propped up by AI hype.
Anyway, expect a massive government bailout for Anthropic and Open AI when the Chinese models prove to be more cost efficient.
Might not be next year, or even this decade, but it’s coming.
PS: A fear mongering campaign is already underway, Deepseek is going to give you communist code completion!
Then in a corporate environment, were most tokens will be spend, you have security concerns, you also might want to go with one company over the other due to partnerships etc.
If USA is blocking chinese companies/models (which they already partially did), big companies will just not bother and use US AMerican models.
Also running it yourself is often not relevant. You don't want to know how much money my company spends on software products which could easily be replicated internally.
But running models yourself might be something you don't have expertise with, you need GPU ready DC, hardware, a new/diffferent team, quality assurances etc.
And Chinese models are known to leverage frontiermodels for post-training results.
Don't get me wrong, I don't want to say chinese models can't disrupt the market massivly absolut possible, but its not given just because they are cheaper.
Absolutely nothing stops Microsoft/Amazon/Open Router( with partners) from hosting the Chinese models. As far as I can tell this is already the case.
This establishes a defacto price cap on what Anthropic and Open AI can charge. If you’re a heavy user blowing past 400$ a month self hosting becomes economical. A Mac Studio with 128GB of ram is about 6k.
Every day local tools are getting better, the OSX ecosystem here is exceptional.
You do have a point with frontier models, but most of the time you don’t need frontier models.
If I knew for sure I’d short Anthropic and retire early.
So what's the best primer we can share for getting started with local llms?
But is there a solution to this though?
How does one stop 'enshittification' of everything exactly?
I'm not talking just about Anthropic.
Do well enough that you don't need outside investors, or if you take on outside investors select them carefully and ensure they don't expect an IPO.
Strong privacy laws
Tech unionization
Mandated data portability.
Intellectual property, at it's simplest, is a government mandated monopoly granted to allow for progress in the sciences and "useful arts" (think trades really, not arts and crafts). All monopolies are bad, but it was only to be granted for a limited time so it was fine.
Corrupt politicians ruined the entire trade off though, and now it seems that copyrights and patents last for 100 years plus the life of the universe. During which time no one can really compete fairly.
If we want rapid progress in science, we want short patents. Instead we opted for long patents and a higher stock price. R&D budgets have been shrinking ever since.
Which places has this been successful?
So what are you going to do about this?
Why not try them?
I don't know what you are on about but we want solutions not complaining about 'corporate lobbyists' and other conspiracy theories.
Luckily switching is super easy so I'm now back to codex (and hopefully carbon soon)
After having that ambition thwarted for over 26 years and working like a slave counting other people's money {a career I hate every day} your collective despair gives my schadenfreude a delicious unending orgasmic thrill. You need literally no idea.
Just remember: no dreams never work out and work by definition is something you hate every day until you die.