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Posted by drewr 2 days ago

US Defense Department will stop providing satellite weather data(text.npr.org)
295 points | 152 comments
accurrent 2 days ago|
As a non-American who's life has been previously saved by knowing that a typhoon would strike my home this has me wondering how we will be affected. A lot of smaller countries don't have the infrastructure/man power to maintain a space program. To what extent is the rest of the world reliant on this data and what does this mean for us? Will we still have predictions? How does international collaboration on meteorology generally work? Do Europeans/Chinese/Indians/Russians also share data about weather?
rooftopzen 2 days ago||
Also historically happens during wartimes: https://niemanreports.org/press-access-to-satellite-images-i...
Buttons840 2 days ago||
I see 3 possibilities: They're cutting it off to limit bad news about climate change, for political reasons. Or they're trying to set up some private company to sell the same data.

Or (tinfoil hat on) they're going to do something the raw microwave data might expose and so they're trying to keep the microwave data secret.

ars 2 days ago||
There's a 4th possibility: This program was cancelled in 2015 and it finally ended.

The replacement is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Polar_Satellite_System

recury 2 days ago||
The JPSS is complementary. The replacement for the DMSP satellites are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_System_Follow-on_Micro...
CharlesW 2 days ago||
There's no mystery, this is the execution of Project 2025. https://envirodatagov.org/project-2025-annotation/
sieabahlpark 1 day ago||
[dead]
ars 2 days ago||
Such hyperbolic comments!

The DMSP program was discontinued in 2015 by a vote in congress[1]. Virtually every working stallelite in this program has failed. As best as I can tell there's just a single working one specifically NOAA-19[2].

Instead the program has switched to JPSS[3] which is part of GEOSS[4].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Meteorological_Satelli... (scroll up slightly)

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOAA-19

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Polar_Satellite_System

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Earth_Observation_Syste...

WarOnPrivacy 2 days ago||
Here is what will be denied to NOAA, now and going forward

    Defense Department data also allow hurricane forecasters to see
    hurricanes as they form, and monitor them in real-time.

    For example, hurricane experts can see where the center of a 
    newly formed storm is, which allows them to figure out as 
    early as possible what direction it is likely to go, and whether
    the storm might hit land. That's important for people in harm's way,
    who need as much time as possible to decide whether to evacuate,
    and to prepare their homes for wind and water.
The public paid for this data. Deliberately siloing the data to insure it can't save American lives wouldn't just be theft, it would be an act indistinguishable from evil.
whycombagator 2 days ago||
> NOAA, which oversees the National Hurricane Center, says the loss of the Defense Department data will not lead to less-accurate hurricane forecasts this year. In a statement, NOAA communications director Kim Doster said, "NOAA's data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve."
tw04 2 days ago|||
Kim Doster is a Trump appointee who worked on Musk’s super pac. Her previous position was as a climate change denial specialist. Pardon my skepticism that we can believe anything she has to say. The Trump administration is a big fan of hiring Iraqi information minister wannabes as their spokespeople.
jackvalentine 2 days ago|||
> Iraqi information minister wannabes

I’ve been thinking about that guy once a week since this administration started.

fredfish 2 days ago|||
> Her previous position was as a climate change denial specialist.

Predictions won't be less accurate because weather is beyond the comprehension of all people and no amount of data could change that.

lurkshark 2 days ago|||
I wouldn’t really expect a Trump administration spokesperson to put out a statement critical of the Trump administration’s decision.
whoopdedo 2 days ago|||
>The public paid for this data.

Someone should file weekly FOIA requests.

bix6 2 days ago||
Didn’t they axe everyone who handles FOIA?
aprilthird2021 2 days ago|||
Wow, they'll literally kill American citizens and American citizens will still overwhelmingly vote for them...
jfengel 2 days ago||
The margin wasn't overwhelming. But if you include the number of people who could have done something about it but failed to, yeah, an overwhelming number allowed it to happen. And, as far as I can tell, will continue to.
renegade-otter 2 days ago|||
Generally the outcome of voting for criminals, thieves, and conmen/women.

And then people wonder why they are erecting spikes around the White House and the Treasury. The pillaging has begun.

Frost1x 2 days ago|||
[flagged]
mistrial9 2 days ago||
> it would be ...

lots of ways to fill in that part. iterating the words seems worth the effort. Thinking out loud, there are readers with frame of reference, and movements or politics-in-practice that have frames of reference, in the messaging .. So making a 2x2 square and filling it in.. you can write for the readers and refine, you can align with movements or their spokespersons and refine, all combined with you yourself representing what you are about.

So to complete the exercise.. how many readers of YNews would respond to "that is evil" wording.. how many movements or politics-in-practice would say "that is evil" as part of their outfacing communications.. and how strongly to you, the writer, want to associate the concepts of "that is evil" with respect to other things that you say or think are important.

I write this pedantic screed because this is so, so critical to communicate right now. The narrow rocky valley pass in which to lay an ambush, is completely in place.. the budget strings. Everyone knows that this is raw executive power in action.. it is to be, because I say so, implemented via the purse. I am not sure how much to include those backdrop statements in any impactful messaging though, because "there is no bad news in sales" and popularity or adaption is part of the task.

mistrial9 2 days ago||
oh this is great "Weather: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver"
idiotsecant 2 days ago||
This is example number 7748492 of how the decline of America will be practically irreversible once a political machine with any kind of rational worldview is in charge again. It took a century to build some of the things that are being destroyed in days or weeks. We're looking at the fall of rome. The only question now is whether a dark age follows or whether someone else takes over.
righthand 2 days ago||
This is part of Project 2025 to destroy the NOAA. [0]

> Break up the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

> "fully commercialize" the National Weather Service's forecasting operations.[1]

[0] https://www.project2025.observer/?search=NOAA

[1] https://www.project2025.observer/?search=Weather

mtmail 2 days ago||
One of arguments seems to be based on climate change denial

"Together, these [six main offices of NOAS] form a colossal operation that has become one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future U.S. prosperity. This industry’s mission emphasis on prediction and management seems designed around the fatal conceit of planning for the unplannable"

"Scientific agencies like NOAA are vulnerable to obstructionism of an Administration’s aims if political appointees are not wholly in sync with Administration policy. Particular attention must be paid to appointments in this area."

sorcerer-mar 2 days ago|||
> "Scientific agencies like NOAA are vulnerable to obstructionism of an Administration’s aims if political appointees are not wholly in sync with Administration policy. Particular attention must be paid to appointments in this area."

Absolutely mind-boggling that someone can put that in writing with a straight face.

const_cast 16 hours ago|||
> climate change alarm industry

Ah yes, that very infamous industry of selling... alarm... for climate change. As opposed to Small Oil, which we all know is a very tiny industry that doesn't influence anything.

conradev 2 days ago|||
A lot of very specific things in the original source: https://static.heritage.org/project2025/2025_MandateForLeade...

I found this one funny:

  Overlap exists between the National Marine Fisheries Service and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Overly simplified, the NMFS handles saltwater species while the Fish and Wildlife Service focuses on fresh water. The goals of these two agencies should be streamlined.
Right next to

  Scientific agencies like NOAA are vulnerable to obstructionism of an Administration’s aims if political appointees are not wholly in sync with Administration policy. Particular attention must be paid to appointments in this area.
Yikes.
ivape 2 days ago||
What in the actual fuck. I can’t believe they are actually doing all those little petty things.
nemomarx 2 days ago|||
Genuine - did you think it was exaggerated in the media or that they wouldn't? A lot of people seem to have not taken it seriously around 2023, even though it was a very detailed plan with legal strategies, implementations and bills, etc in there.
righthand 2 days ago|||
A lot of people didn’t take it seriously because the RNC lied about distancing themselves from the Project 2025, which is a meaningless statement that even Democrats believed. It doesn’t really matter if the RNC distances themselves though does it?
ivape 2 days ago|||
They say all cynics used to be idealist. That’s another way of saying the idealist and cynic have the same essence.

The cynic can actually think “oh that project 2025 stuff, that’s just red meat for their base, they went actually do it”, but that’s because neither the cynic nor the idealist can face reality (remember, the cynic and idealist transform between each other).

The horror of reality is the raw hard reality, and there’s no cynicism or idealism that can prepare you for it - both were always a coping mechanism.

TheOtherHobbes 2 days ago||||
They're not just petty, they're wildly impractical.

You can't privatise NOAA and the services it offers. It cannot work at an equivalent level as a private service. Its effectiveness relies on being able to decide what's valuable in purely scientific terms, and those terms don't align with short-term corporate greed.

But if you ask these cranks what NOAA actually does, they'll have no clue. They're not just evil, they're stupid - the smallest, most banal bureaucrats, cosplaying radicals.

kelnos 2 days ago|||
They're not trying to privatize NOAA; they're trying to shut it down.

NWS is what they're trying to privatize.

righthand 2 days ago||
Yes the conflation is my bad because I think this move is relative to NWS privatization, which is what might strike most people. You can’t have the government predicting and tracking major weather events and issues, those are the biggest datasets to sell access too.

For other NOAA fallout effects in the government, a Potus wouldn’t have to rob from the FEMA funds if there’s nothing for FEMA to prepare for, in that FEMA cannot say we need to spend money to help flooding in Texas or hurricane damage in Florida. No cancel that and put that money into the tax break or 1% monetary “business investment” funnel fund. [0] [1]

[0] https://www.project2025.observer/?search=flood

[1] https://www.project2025.observer/?search=Fema&sort=agency-de...

tokai 2 days ago|||
>It cannot work [...] as a private service

But with public contracts it can be a very effective way to line ones pockets with tax payer money.

righthand 2 days ago||||
Yes as warned and ignored.
mptest 2 days ago||
Literally had this report for years and literally heard the current president praise and endorse it on a hot mic. The fact that, presumably, educated people, are still acting surprised (or worse, legitimately are ignorant) when the reic-i mean presidency was explicitly planned out, in a commissioned by the wealthy, public to all, report by the most connected conservative think tank in the country.
Mobius01 2 days ago||
Is this an attempt at controlling the narrative around climate change, in line with the impacts at NOAA and other climate-related government agencies?
mason_mpls 2 days ago||
Don’t look up!
burnt-resistor 2 days ago|||
The timing is just, it's atrocious. Okay, at this very moment, I say we sit tight and assess.
chamomeal 2 days ago|||
^ I’m pretty sure this is a quote from the movie Don’t Look Up, if that’s why y’all are downvoting this comment
TheRealPomax 2 days ago|||
That's what got us here in the first place, maybe stop doing that.
verandaguy 2 days ago|||
"Sit tight and assess" as used above is probably a reference to the movie "Don't Look Up" from a few years ago, which (heavy-handedly) parodied administrations like Trump I (and which unortunately seem much less like parody in the Trump II era).
dzhiurgis 2 days ago|||
To where? Stock market ath and free AI for the masses?
FireBeyond 2 days ago|||
[flagged]
gwerbin 2 days ago|||
Yes. Quoting Projct 225:

> Break Up NOAA ... NOAA consists of six main offices ... Together, these form a colossal operation that has become one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future U.S. prosperity. This industry’s mission emphasis on prediction and management seems designed around the fatal conceit of planning for the unplannable. That is not to say NOAA is useless, but its current organization corrupts its useful functions. It should be broken up and downsized. NOAA today boasts that it is a provider of environmental information services, a provider of environmental stewardship services, and a leader in applied scientific research. Each of these functions could be provided commercially, likely at lower cost and higher quality.

https://envirodatagov.org/project-2025-national-oceanic-and-...

Tldr: shut down NOAA to suppress climate change evidence, research, and preparedness; outsource to private industry the remaining parts that are considered directly useful for commerce.

Is it any wonder that the CEO of Accuweather Barry Myers was a Trump donor who became a NOAA head administrator appointee in Trump's first term? The appointment fortunately failed. Now they're trying again.

matthewdgreen 2 days ago|||
If we survive this, these people will go down in history as monsters.
buttercraft 2 days ago||
What if they're the ones who survive and rewrite history
gwerbin 2 days ago|||
That's what they're betting on. It's why suppressing free public access to knowledge and education is part of the agenda.
actionfromafar 2 days ago||
Yet, many even here on HN will if not outright defend this, then let it slide, because there is one overarching goal which must not be compromised at any cost: to own the libs.
matthewdgreen 2 days ago||||
Then they will do everything in their power to pretend that they didn’t drag us into this.
spwa4 1 day ago||
Given that despite open knowledge nothing was done for >50 years about climate change, there's plenty of blame to go around. Hell, I like to compare the feedback vs the forcing and the feedback has been going down since 2018. Imho that can only mean the tipping point is very close.
LexiMax 2 days ago|||
History isn't written by the victors. It's written by historians.
tumsfestival 1 day ago||
Historians using highly biased sources from the victors.
chamomeal 2 days ago|||
Oh geez that… that is upsetting
ars 2 days ago|||
No, this was cancelled by congress in 2015 and switched to the JPSS program which is running and active.
bamboozled 1 day ago||
Could more than one thing be goin on?
genter 2 days ago||
[flagged]
alwa 2 days ago|||
Accuweather, who also depend on this same USG sensor data for their modeling…

I don’t think anybody wins from this.

See e.g. https://www.accuweather.com/en/press/accuweather-does-not-su...

Frost1x 2 days ago|||
Are there other countries with similar weather satellites? I imagine China or the EU likely have some of their own. I know the US has been pushing this for free so plenty of nations likely piggy back off the free data. But I imagine larger ones might want their own redundant services to some degree to avoid vulnerability.

If so, they might be benefiting, but that’s about it.

tokai 2 days ago|||
"Since its establishment in 2014, the Copernicus program has received consistent investment from ESA, making it the world’s largest and most advanced open data Earth Observation initiative for climate, disaster, and resource management."[0]

Data from the Copernicus program is available for any citizen or organization worldwide. So a lot of free data will still be accessible.

[0] https://newsletter.terrawatchspace.com/global-earth-observat...

yurishimo 2 days ago|||
Definitely. The EU has weather satellites and Asia as well. Luckily, they tend to collect data around the entire world but what we lose here is the on-the-ground infrastructure that is woven together with satellite data to give better information about the facts on the ground.

Funny enough, this came up in the Netherlands a few months ago. The government released their own mobile app based on the data they collect and the private weather apps got all upset that the government was competing. What made it hilarious though, is that the private companies are all using the open source government data to power their apps!

So yea, this data will still be collected in the USA, but then sold to for-profit companies for basically nothing and then they will charge consumers for access to data collected with their collective tax dollars. Pretty messed up imo.

vel0city 2 days ago||||
It not being publicly published or furnished to NOAA doesn't mean AccuWeather or other private entities won't get this data.
mptest 2 days ago||||
>I don't think anybody wins from this...

Take one quick look at any wealth inequality graph over time and "who's winning" will be pretty clear. Someone always wins. This is simply a step at privatizing everything. Straight out of project 2025.

Kagi 2025 noaa. I shouldn't even have to link it. The fact that their entire game was publicly laid out years ago... and still, people act ignorant or are legitimately not paying any attention to politics... We deserve all that this administration will cost us as a collective.

mullingitover 2 days ago||||
Most of the world looks at the collapse of the Soviet Union, particularly the looting of state institutions by the oligarchs in Russia, as a cautionary tale.

The current US regime looks at it as a roadmap.

actionfromafar 2 days ago||||
SpaceX?
defrost 2 days ago||
Business as usual there,

SpaceX scores $81.6 million Space Force contract to launch weather satellite

  The contract for the mission designated USSF-178 was awarded on June 27  ( 2025 ) by the Space Systems Command and represents SpaceX’s third consecutive win under the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 program.

  The mission will carry the Weather System Follow-on – Microwave Space Vehicle 2 (WSF-M2), along with a secondary payload of experimental small satellites called BLAZE-2. 
~ https://spacenews.com/spacex-scores-81-6-million-space-force...

New weather sats going up, just not "free data for taxpayers".

dzhiurgis 2 days ago||
This sounds so cheap that we could have thousands of individuals launch their private constellations.

Do you really need to subsidise this anymore?

If anything brining competition to this space (pun intended) might improve the data quality.

defrost 2 days ago||
A contract to lift a sat to orbit improves data quality as much as a transport contract to deliver furniture improves a chaise lounge.

Satellites are still tricky and time consuming to build and are an entire other ball of wax than a lift to orbit.

dzhiurgis 2 days ago||
Of course I'm not arguing sats are easy or simple or whatever, but overall cost has and still is dominated by launch cost, by at least an order of magnitude.
defrost 2 days ago||

  A typical weather satellite carries a price tag of $290 million; a spy satellite might cost an additional $100 million
~ https://science.howstuffworks.com/satellite10.htm

  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) asked the aerospace and defense giant to build it at least three, and potentially as many as seven, new next-generation Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) sats. If all options are exercised, the total contract value will reach $2.3 billion.

  Bad news for Lockheed Martin: That works out to $324.3 million per satellite.
~ https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/30/lockheed-martin-wi...

It's generally agreed that ~ $90 million for a sat launch is less than a third of a ~$300 million per sat build cost.

dzhiurgis 2 days ago||
And have you got a source thats not a nearly 2 decades old and not for government contract?

Edit: here's one thats $30M https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/05/electron-tropics-lau...

defrost 2 days ago||
> have you got a source thats not a nearly 2 decades old

Such as the Lockheed Martin 2024 contract I linked?

Sure.. try that link, it's from last year and talks about grown up big boy weather sat costs in 2024..

Your $30m SmallSat is not in the same league as a full featured $300m sat .. I'll leave you to work out the differences.

Moreover the launch costs for those $30m sats is under $8m each launch, again refuting an upstream claim about launch costs being higher than sat build costs.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocket_Lab_Electron

   The starting price for delivering payloads to orbit is about US$7.5 million per launch, or US$25,000 per kg, which offers the only dedicated service at this price point.
dzhiurgis 2 days ago||
I had a bit of a chat with chatgpt and I agree the smallsats are not replacement just yet, but in future there's no doubt they are better in most ways - faster iteration, far better resolution and of course lower cost.
potsandpans 2 days ago||||
One decision can have multiple motives.
idiotsecant 2 days ago||||
It's probably not even that sophisticated. It's almost certainly a variant of 'Why are we giving this away for free? We should be making money from this!!!' Not understanding the second-order money losing impacts of it going away is pretty much expected.
9283409232 2 days ago||||
I recommend Ambient Weather instead of Accuweather.

[0] https://ambientweather.net/

kgwxd 2 days ago||
I recommend my tax dollars actually pay for something useful to citizens instead of going directly into some oligarchs off-shore banking account.
9283409232 2 days ago||
I agree but that isn't happening so I would recommend not supporting the products that enrich these oligarchs.
detourdog 2 days ago|||
[flagged]
leereeves 2 days ago||
> "There are cybersecurity concerns. That's what we're being told."

Anyone know what that's about?

WarOnPrivacy 2 days ago||
> "There are cybersecurity concerns. That's what we're being told."

Let's try to make sense of that.

    1) the cybersecurity talent from DoD and USG is so decimated it can't
    field a response to whatever this concern is or

    2) the DoD has the talent to resolve whatever this concern is and they
    are deliberately leaving this concern in place or

    3) the DoD is lying about a cybersecurity issue being the reason
    that they're withholding lifesaving data (from benefiting
    the public that paid for it).
genter 2 days ago||
Fourth option: a cyber company that could potentially sell weather forecast data is loosing it's financial security because NOAA gives it away for free.
sunflowerfly 2 days ago|||
They want to privatize it for private gain and to shut down climate change alarms. It is in Project 2025.
kranke155 2 days ago|||
it's sure great we have a blueprint that explains all of this in detail.
morkalork 2 days ago|||
Okay and then what? There's already huge issues with getting home insurance in places like Florida, what will they do, force companies to offer it against their will and see them go broke? Convince people that insurance is woke? There are real problems that aren't going away, regardless of their beliefs.
420official 2 days ago||
The thinking is they will offer it at a high enough cost that they don't go broke. The problem is a lot of consumers, if not most, would be fine reading street signs or using mapquest.
bigiain 2 days ago||
Blamestorming, fingerpointing, and avoiding saying anything that might make Trump tweet about them in allcaps at 2am.
aswanson 2 days ago|
Good God. The Fall of civilizations episode for the United States will be galactically stupid. The Sumerians: climate change and soil degradation. The Assyrians: external tribes organizing against their brutality. The US: fox news, AM radio, and conspiracy theory uncle Facebook memes.
actionfromafar 1 day ago||
Strikingly succinct.
bamboozled 1 day ago||
Podcasts.
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