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Posted by chmaynard 10/13/2025

No science, no startups: The innovation engine we're switching off(steveblank.com)
724 points | 498 commentspage 3
lutusp 10/14/2025|
> But few people have asked what, exactly, is science? How does it work?

The author asks the question, but then never answers it. That isn't surprising -- nearly no one outside science understands how it works.

* Science rejects authority and doubts expertise. The greatest amount of scientific eminence is trumped by the smallest amount of scientific evidence.

* The basic scientific posture is that a theory is assumed to be false until proven true.

* Contrast this outlook with pseudoscience, where a theory is assumed to be true until proven false.

* A conscientious scientist lists all the reasons his theory might be wrong. In other fields, this task is left to critics.

This summary may seem to be at odds with modern scientific practice, but that's because much of modern scientific publishing is not science, it's marketing.

In a now-famous science story, during an astronomy conference a researcher stood up and confessed that he had made a mistake -- his detection of an exoplanet actually resulted from a failure to subtract Earth's own annual motion from his data.

The audience came to its feet and gave the researcher a standing ovation.

That is science.

cadamsdotcom 10/13/2025||
It feels like in the past 20-ish years, maybe longer, game-changing innovations have become rarer, making science lower ROI.

If that’s true (maybe it’s not? all I have is vibes!), if it is indeed true, and science is becoming less able to convert into invention- it stands to reason that at some point it becomes rational for a country to direct resources elsewhere. Political will becomes strained, and politicians decide it’ll be popular to defund and discourage science.

And maybe that is how the US got here.

Nasrudith 10/14/2025||
It depends upon the field you are talking about for diminished return and less innovations. Returns have been thoroughly diminished when it comes to raw power in weaponry for instance. With anti-ship missiles already it is rather 'you get hit and you die'. Railguns haven't really been working out well for instance, and even if they did succeed all they would do is create 'stable magazines' while adding 'unstable' additional power production. Precision is the area where real work is being done, lumping in drones as an example of precision compared to say missiles or bombs which just explode at a destination, or mines which just explode when anything triggers it.

There are some major advancements in biotech for instance that are nothing to sneeze at, and even more in the pipeline (which admittedly may not pan out). Organs may not qualify as an invention technically, but being able to manufacture them certainly does. Not to mention how environmental tech is needed now more than ever.

Science being less convertible to inventions could have counterintuitive effects if it were true. Like smaller nations being in a 'don't even bother' situation while superpowers gain a literal monopoly on invention due to the rareness raising the barrier to entry to get anything meaningful out of it.

Politicians defunding and discouraging science is based more around memes and suppressing dissent than anything concrete. The reason not to create such 'stability' is generally that when the rest of the world passes by it will not be kind to you. But even if science somehow became literally useless tomorrow (an impossibility, of course), I highly doubt that politicians would not be such rigorous cost-oriented stewards that they would consider it worth the political capital to uproot the entrenched bureaucracies which no longer serve a purpose. Even if they knew it for certain was useless they might consider the spending a worthy price to pay for false hope. Crowds get real ugly when you tell them that things will never get better.

foobarian 10/14/2025|||
Used to be you could throw a handful of metal scrap into a vacuum chamber, hook it up to high voltage and get a handful of patents right off the bat. That ship has long sailed
bamboozled 10/14/2025||
Maybe but the successful part of the US got there through science and tech. So I think more science and tech is a better prospect long term.
wosined 10/14/2025||
So is gender research or feminist queer dance theory studies a part of basic or applied science?
dxdm 10/14/2025||
> So is gender research or feminist queer dance theory studies a part of basic or applied science?

People's ideas about how humans should live together can be beneficial for the wealth and well-being of whole societies and its members. Was Rousseau part of basic or applied science?

We can wonder about how useful certain efforts are, of course, especially in all their extent; but I don't know how wise it is to dismiss things _wholesale_, just because their application is not immediately apparent and the rejection fits into the political current. The unnecessary snark is just sad to see here.

ryandv 10/14/2025||
> Was Rousseau part of basic or applied science?

This one is easy - neither. The term "science" has gone through semantic dilution in a manner similar to how everyone is now an engineer - software engineer, prompt engineer, sanitation engineer.

Falsifiability is one of the key distinguishing characteristics of a proper science, as famously propounded by Karl Popper.

"Gender identities" not only can not be falsified, they should not be falsified, because that would amount to transphobia; denying the existence of someone's felt and lived gender identity is the definition of transphobia.

Since they cannot be falsified, nor even directly observed, measured, nor quantified, they are not scientific notions.

The closest most well-studied analogue to the "gender identity" is the legacy religious notion of "the soul," to which you will see you can ascribe most, if not all, of the same attributes as ascribed to the "gender identity."

ziply 10/14/2025|||
Depends on the circumstance, surely? If someone is claiming a "felt and lived" identity to justify an action that infringes on the rights of others, is that not reason enough to deny it?
ryandv 10/14/2025||
Obviously not [0].

[0] https://news.sky.com/story/fresh-trans-prisoner-row-as-girls...

gizzlon 10/14/2025|||
> feminist queer dance theory studies

I dunno, but how many % of research in terms of money and effort do you think is spent on that? 0,0001 % ?

BobaFloutist 10/14/2025|||
> gender research

It depends, this could be medicine or it could be sociology or it could be psychology, there's a few different places it pops up.

> feminist queer dance theory studies

This is very obviously performing arts or maybe something in English or Social Studies if the "dance" part is the specialization rather than the core. I doubt even the most died-in-the-wool woke-fessor or whatever would call it "science," which makes it pretty irrelevant to the current conversation, though just because something isn't STEM doesn't mean it's not important (though it might be significantly less lucrative).

Vektorceraptor 10/14/2025||
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mindscrawler 10/14/2025||
The race for quick profits is eating away our future innovations.
DarkNova6 10/14/2025|
*The race for quick profits is eating away our future.
jldugger 10/13/2025||
This seems quite adjacent to today's Nobel Prize announcement that sustained growth comes from understanding why an innovation works, so we can apply it in new domains.
Peteragain 10/14/2025||
I do feel this is a case of Americans believing their own propaganda. What the US does well is efficiency. The problem is, capitalism has pushed the time to ROI (return on investment) to get shorter. 5 years is what venture capitalists were working on. At one point there was status for a corporation to have a research lab of quality - in the same way as corporations had glorious architecture for their headquarters, Bell labs was about status. These research labs provided a safe space for curiosity driven scientists. In the interests of efficiency (and because it no longer had kudos) the labs were abandoned and - in a classic US way - it was decided the State should do the science. The trouble now is that the Universities are thinking about their ROI. Curiosity driven science has no home at the moment.
runako 10/14/2025||
Great post. I would love to see someone connect the long-term increase in Americans' wealth with our ability to develop and harness new technologies. And conversely, how much poorer we can expect Americans to become if that cycle is slowed/stopped.

I've seen similar articles about trade & the UK (and now the US). I'm sure someone has done or is working on similar analysis for science & engineering.

rob_c 10/13/2025||
I thought this was going somewhere rather than aiming to be a dictionary with pictures or am I missing a key paragraph?
Vektorceraptor 10/14/2025|
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lgleason 10/14/2025||
What almost nobody in SV wants to talk about it the gutting of STEM in the early 90's when real wages for STEM began it's decline in the US via labor arbitrage. Of course Blank and most of Silicon Valley benefited from this, because it allowed them to get cheap, compliant labor. Eric Weinstein did a great paper on this years ago https://users.nber.org/~sewp/references/archive/weinsteinhow... . Looking at the current unemployment in STEM, which is higher than the national average, this arbitrage has just hit a point where it has killed the goose that laid his golden egg.
MichaelAO 10/15/2025|
Reading The Economics Laws of Scientific Laws rocked my world on this topic. Tldr is that the basic to applied science pipeline proposed by Francis Bacon and now assumed as physical law is a fiction that legitimizes the state, wastes taxpayer money, and retards science.

More science will happen with less government funding (see crowding out effect). This is why it's important to look not just at the intention of a policy, but at the actual outcome.

This author has the tail wagging the dog. I'd rephrase it... more startups, more science.

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