Posted by saigrandhi 12/10/2025
That doesn't mean there will be a crash, though. Not all bubbles pop.
We know for certain it was a bubble as non-bubbles have sustainable growth. As all the software developers now struggling to find work will be happy to tell you, the growth wasn't sustainable. The proof is in the pudding.
Stock prices are at all time high and continuously growing.
By looking at the software development market. How else would you do it? Salaries rose sharply from 2020-2023, but then plateaued and are now starting to decline. Slowly, however. It did not crash. It ticks the boxes: Rapid price appreciation, speculation, a disconnect from fundamentals, widespread media attention, and an eventual correction.
> Stock prices are at all time high and continuously growing.
If we're sharing random facts: Global average temperature is also at an all time high and continuously increasing.
2. definition of bubble is that the market cap must precipitously reduce, which it hasn't.
How can the very market we're talking about not indicate whether there is a bubble in that market or not? Do you think we should be looking at the price of soybeans instead?
> definition of bubble is that the market cap must precipitously reduce, which it hasn't.
Incorrect. It has, just not by very much. Which isn't surprising as we already established that there wasn't a crash.
- Rapid price appreciation
- Speculation
- A disconnect from fundamentals
- Widespread media attention
- An eventual correction
If market cap, how do you explain housing bubbles? Market cap is not applicable to housing.
that didn't happen for tech stocks. you are making your own definitions of bubble - the sufficient thing to happen is for the market cap to go down precipetously which it didnt.
Traditionally, market cap only refers to companies. I accept your pet definition that includes any kind of market, but then we can apply it to the software development market just the same. Individual software developers have fallen in price. There was not a significant drop, but a slow decline.
> that didn't happen for tech stocks.
Nor gold. But what does that have to do with the software development market? Are you under the impression that stock certificates write code?
Anyone who has lived through the dotcom bubble knows that this AI mania is a obvious bubble and the whole point is you have to prepare before it eventually pops, not after someone tells you that it is too late when it pops.
Just as those who live in earthquake-prone areas build earthquake-resistant buildings.
Has to be done before the eventual collapse of the bubble and still proves my whole point:
>> the whole point is you have to prepare before it eventually pops.
Yes.
...it is a bubble and we all know it.
(I know you have RSUs / shares / golden handcuffs waiting to be vested in the next 1 - 4 years which is why you want the bubble to continue to get bigger.)
But one certainty is the crash will be spectacular.
I would love to see your portfolio, if you wouldn't mind showing the class. Let us see what your allocation reveals about what you really think...
Off--topic: how many get overpaid for absolute bullshit?