Posted by rbanffy 1 day ago
There are far more technologies going for the hours scale storage market than will survive. Sure, explore them. But expect most to fail to compete.
Grid level batteries have another very important metric. The actual possibility of buying a particular types of batteries from friendly nations. Simpler technologies like this CO2 battery have a huge advantage here.
To steelman the point you're making: perhaps the short term storage niche will fracture into smaller niches, in which different technologies could coexist. This also happens in ecology. For example, in one simple experiment with bacteria, it was found two species coexisted, but on closer examination it was found one species persisted in the top of the flasks, the other in the bottom.
For example, for the market niche "getting people from one location to another" there are quite many technologies, like walking, bicycles, scooters, cars, trains, ships, airplanes, helicopters etc., none of them evolved as a clear winner that displaced the others.
You might say, that's a whole market, not just a market niche, but it's also a niche of the larger transportation market.
When we look at something like grid-scale energy storage, how do we know if it's a winner-takes-all niche? Maybe constraints such as availability of space, availability of funding, weather, climate, grid demands etc. create sub-niches with their own winners. Or maybe not, but how can we known?
Actually, having expandable, highly re-usable tech like this is much better when the capacities are in terms of hours.
This storage, combined with say 2.5x solar panel installation, could essentially provide power at 1x day and night.
This system can run for decades.
"LFP chemistry offers a considerably longer cycle life than other lithium-ion chemistries. Under most conditions, it supports more than 3,000 cycles; under optimal conditions, more than 10,000 cycles."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery...
This is the paper that claims 10,000 cycles under optimal conditions.
But if you read it, they measure Equivalent Full Cycles, and it seems that implies 10000 cycles at partial discharge, not full discharge.
The paper calculates everything at nominal discharge upto 80%. Meaning, the installed capacity has to be 25% more than paper value, leading to increased costs.
Add to that, batteries are complex to manufacture, degrade, lose capacity, etc. You need high level of quality control to actually ensure you are getting good batteries. This means, the cost of QA and expertise increases. They are costly to replace, even at an avg of 3000 cycles (roughly 10 years). Bad cells in one batch accelerate degradation and are difficult to trace out. Batteries operate best at low temperatures, so the numbers may vary based on installed location and climatic conditions.
A turbine and co2 compressor system is dead simple to manufacture, control and maintain. A simple PLC system and some automation can make them run quite well. Manufacturing complexity is low, as there are tried and tested tech. Basically piping, valves, turbines and generators. These things can be reliably run for 30 to 40 years. Meaning, the economics and cost efficiency is wildly different.
With such simplicity, they can be deployed across the world, especially in places like Africa, middle east, etc.
On the whole, batteries are not explicitly superior as such. There are pros and cons on both sides.
In evaluating the importance of this, you need to consider not only the time value of money, but also what one might call the "time value of technology". Does it make sense to make the technology long lived when it's improving so quickly? Or do you just replace it in a decade when things are much cheaper? Was "this PC will last 20 years!" ever a selling point?
When evaluating these technologies, you have to look at not just what they cost now, but how rapidly the cost is improving. Batteries are likely improving more quickly than turbines and heat exchangers.
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity - where it is feasible - is the only kind of energy storage close to "months".
Wait a minute...
This is one place where I think by 2030 a clear no of options will be established.
This site finds optimal combinations of solar, wind, batteries, and a long term storage (in this case, hydrogen), using historical weather data, to provide "synthetic baseload". It's a simplified model, but it provides important insights.
Go there, and (for various locations) try it with and without the hydrogen. You'll find that in a place at highish lattitude, like (say) Germany, omitting hydrogen doubles the cost. That's because to either smooth over seasonal variation in solar, or over long period drop out of wind, you need to either greatly overprovision those, or greatly overprovision batteries. Just a little hydrogen reduces the needed overprovisioning of those other things, even with hydrogen's lousy round trip efficiency.
Batteries are still extremely important here, for short duration smoothing. Most stored energy is still going through batteries, so their capex and efficiency is important.
You can also tweak the model to allow a little natural gas, limiting it to some fixed percentage (say, 5%) of total electrical output. This also gets around the problem. But we utimately want to totally get off of natural gas.
I suspect thermal storage will beat out hydrogen, if Standard Thermal's "hot dirt" approach pans out.
Similar discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44685067 (162p/153c)
Do we though? It feels like we're still in the stage where we're just trying to figure out what the best solution is for grid-scale storage, but once we do figure it out, the most efficient solution will win out over all the others. Yes, there may be some regional variation (e.g. TFA mentions how pumped hydro is great but only makes sense where geography supports it), but overall it feels like the world will eventually narrow things down to a very small number of solutions.
If you could reuse the same turbine, one could store excess solar/wind energy in the compressed gas form, and then fire up a natural gas or biomass gasification reactor and then feed the heat into the system to produce more electricity on demand.
...and even dangling heavy objects in the air and dropping them. (The creativity devoted to LDES is impressive.) But geologic constraints, economic viability, efficiency, and scalability have hindered the commercialization of these strategies.
So: 70 meters
I guess it just depends on how much oxygen you really need.