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Posted by Amorymeltzer 5 hours ago

2025 Letter(danwang.co)
162 points | 98 comments
ceuk 1 hour ago|
As a Brit, I struggled to get much interesting out of this considering how many times he mentions "Europe" (in that condescendingly general way that only US folks seem to manage).

He talks about "European" prospects and his trip to Denmark but then cites London as a representative example?

This almost broke my brain it felt so incoherent.

Never mind that (despite my personal wishes) we're not even part of the EU (which I assume is what he means by "Europe"). Surely he knows what an anomaly London is? It's not representative of anything except itself.

Referencing the extreme wage dispersion and severe housing pressure of London in a rant about Europe in general is a completely pointless endeavour.

He did say one thing I agree with. If you like good food, rich culture and great surroundings, "Europe" is indeed a lovely place to be for the most part.

Maybe I'll just keep that as my takeaway. It's too early in the year for doom and gloom anyway

kubb 1 hour ago||
He’s a Chinese guy in the US. He thinks in terms of large monoliths. The nuance of 40 different cultures on a small continent might be lost on him.

That’s OK.

We all have some approximation of reality in our brains which is necessarily shaped by our life experiences.

kankerlijer 1 hour ago||||
There is something very irritating seeing someone dismiss someone else on the internet using condescending therapy speak 'Thats Ok', nevermind the fact that calling him out as some ignorant Chinese guy while China has hundreds of cultures and languages, as if a Chinese person couldn't comprehend... Europe.
kubb 54 minutes ago||
The way to respect isn’t through shaming people into it. It’s through demonstration of value, in this case understanding of nuance.

Instead we get an application of external logic and values which can’t be used to properly reason about the entity they’re applied to.

There’s no need for frustration. We take the stoic approach here. It’s OK. You are a product of your environment. Everything you’ve ever experienced told you this is the way to act.

tshaddox 57 minutes ago|||
> The nuance of 40 different cultures on a small continent might be lost on him.

I don’t know about the author in particular, but Americans are generally aware of the “nuanced” European history of near constant war between rival nations, states, factions, and religions.

kubb 51 minutes ago||
I think they could do a better job communicating that, but I’m glad that Americans are educated and curious about other parts of the world.
npalli 1 hour ago|||
Just like San Francisco and Dallas/Texas (from his article) are very different in the US, we should expect lot of differences in Europe (as others mentioned, he clubs UK with EU). Housing is a general problem for all major cities though, not sure why you think it is unique to London in the whole continent. Stockholm, Paris, Dublin, Lisbon to name a few, are pretty bad for housing in their own unique ways. Certainly shouldn't be "breaking your brain".
verbify 50 minutes ago||
> Just like San Francisco and Dallas/Texas (from his article) are very different in the US, we should expect lot of differences in Europe

Dallas and San Francisco are both English speaking cities with a shared recent history of being part of the same nation. Most cities in Europe are as close as New York and Mexico City - Dallas and San Francisco is probably more analogous to Milan and Naples (different cultures, different histories, but now speak the same language and are part of the same nation).

tshaddox 1 hour ago|||
> Never mind that (despite my personal wishes) we're not even part of the EU (which I assume is what he means by "Europe").

Nah, Americans aren’t particularly interested in which Europeans are offended by being identified as “Europeans” this week. If we say “Europe” without qualification we’re probably just talking about the continent. (And no, we don’t even use the word “continent” as a distinction within Europe, except when referring to hotel breakfasts.)

Americans don’t really have much of a concept of what European identity is, and we don’t really care (other than being grateful for a few decades of relative peace after 1,000 or so years of near constant war).

maxglute 19 minutes ago|||
He's a Canadian in America writing about China. He writes about bloc strategic competition. EU+UK is treated as bloc in this context, individual European countries are generally irrelevant alone.
BrokenCogs 1 hour ago|||
It's pretty clear he meant Europe as the continent, which London is a part of.

It's very similar to "Europeans" broadly generalizing the US as one homogenous country, assuming everyone and everything in Chicago is the same as New York or Dallas.

Source: me, a brit, who has lived and worked in UK and US.

xixixao 1 hour ago|||
He’s writing about China and US. Sure, you can call Europe more diverse, but still it makes sense to draw some generalizations, and I don’t think he’s far from the mark (having myself lived in EU, UK and US).
yunnpp 1 hour ago||
"Africa"
dzonga 2 hours ago||
London has the house prices of California and the income levels of Mississippi.

the UK is seriously broken, I always reflect on the energy generation statistics of the UK per capita

while in the US you see automated car washes, in the uk most car washes are Albanians n other immigrants etc

verbify 34 minutes ago||
I spot checked some of this and from what I can find, the median salary in London is about $12k more than Mississippi, and the median house price in London is about $100k less than California.

Bear in mind that obviously the mean salary in London is going to be far higher than the median (the finance industry will skew it), while I'm not sure that's as extreme as Mississippi. Additionally median salaries reflect a lot of service jobs and similar labour. Dubai has a lower median wage than either London or Mississippi, but people don't think of it as economically broken.

Comparing California (an extremely large state that I presume has cheaper housing outside major urban areas) to a city seems a bit of a poor comparison.

I don't disagree that the UK has high energy costs.

kubb 1 hour ago|||
Nobody will admit that the housing is overpriced, so they would have to be forced to do so.

This is terrible for normal people, and slightly bad for the investors, but only a crisis or organized government action can reset the damage done by decades of investment in already existing buildings.

The former is much more likely to happen.

xixixao 1 hour ago|||
There are differences, but this is oversimplified, and market is “mostly” working. You need more money in California, for transportation, for health care. The standard is bigger houses (bigger everything) in Cali. Life might be richer, in some ways more pleasant, in London (it’s not weather though), including shorter flights to many interesting places.

From my experience the ratio of savings was similar, but the ppp of course favored US for absolute numbers.

bix6 2 hours ago|||
House prices are out of wack anywhere desirable because the local income is irrelevant when non-locals are allowed to scoop up the local supply.
yunnpp 2 hours ago|||
Countries like Indonesia have banned foreigners from owning land altogether. You can apparently still own property through land-lease agreements and other arrangements, but not the land. I think they've cracked down on illegal rentals too.
shimman 1 hour ago|||
House prices are only "out of wack" in areas with poor social housing programs.

Housing in Vienna is still affordable, only due to their very successful public housing programs. Public housing can be both beautiful and highly affordable if you want it to be, it's not like we don't know how to make good quality homes with lovely public amenities. It's mostly developers that want to skim on everything while selling it at the highest cost possible.

Poor system if this is the outcome: unaffordability.

klysm 2 hours ago||
Income and wealth inequality! I don’t see a way out for the UK
turbonaut 2 hours ago|||
Median wealth per adult in the UK is 176k. In the US it is only 124k.

Source: UBS Global Wealth Report 2025

Of course US does has a much higher mean wealth…

specproc 2 hours ago|||
We're a wholly-owned subsidiary of America Inc., Minsk to Washington's Moscow.

The Vampire Squid has its tentacles in all our orifices, and we won't be free till we cut it off, or it dies of an obesity-related illness.

lithocarpus 2 hours ago|||
Not disagreeing but also I wonder how it compares to inequality in Britain before the US was a thing.
specproc 1 hour ago||
The core issue is that most major businesses are ultimately owned directly or indirectly abroad, largely in America, with some tapping by London-based intermediaries.

Supermarkets and shopping centres, national assets (e.g., water) the story is the same. Then there's Amazon et al.

Profit generated in this country is by and large not spent here, and is certainly not taxed adequately.

This causes inequality by short-circuiting redistributive measures, either local economic multipliers or government spending.

What gains are felt are concentrated in service sectors which facilitate global capital, concentrated in London. See OP's thoughts on legalistic societies.

It compares to inequality in England before the US was a thing, in the same way. Small elite benefiting from global plunder, vast inequality internally.

The British Empire didn't actually end. There was a hostile takeover by Washington at the end of WW2.

nradov 2 hours ago||||
The UK is already close to the USA on obesity rates and catching up fast.
01284a7e 2 hours ago||||
Meh. Everywhere has foreign investment. The economic elite of the UK owns the US as well.
cindyllm 2 hours ago|||
[dead]
siavosh 1 hour ago||
I read the whole post. Really revealing - so much analysis but not a single mention of a global system that is reaching a singularity in wealth concentration, and maybe how that might be an important dimension to reflect on. Its like using so many words to deeply analyze the speed differentials in a car race, but not looking up to see that all the drivers are racing towards a brick wall.
kaonwarb 4 hours ago||
I recommend Dan’s book (https://danwang.co/breakneck/) to those wanting to better understand China - and the United States.
libraryofbabel 3 hours ago|
One of the best books I read this year. I think a lot of HN readers will like it. A really balanced take on China that also digs deep into the perennial question of “why can’t we build big infrastructure projects in the US?” that comes up here quite often.
veritascap 19 minutes ago||
We used to build those infrastructure projects.
libraryofbabel 4 minutes ago||
Well of course, and the book digs a little into the history as well, and what changed around the 1960s/70s. There is a long section on Robert Moses, for example. He draws a lot of parallels between modern China and the US in the 19th and early 20th centuries - totally different political systems, but similar “breakneck” ability to build.
RagnarD 1 hour ago||
To my surprise I found myself reading the entire rather long piece. His thoughts on AI, San Francisco, China, and other topics, are well worth the time.
pityJuke 3 hours ago||
As someone unfamiliar with the author, I had a deep amount of cynicism for the length of this piece... but damn, it's good, top to bottom.
nozzlegear 3 hours ago|
I agree. At first I briefly skimmed it and thought it was going to be a puff piece on China's AI efforts (unfair of me), but a couple paragraphs caught me and I read the whole thing. I'm glad I did.
ksec 2 hours ago||
In the thread "Roomba maker goes bankrupt, Chinese owner emerges" [1], I wrote about China'a hardware capability now going far beyond what US can imagine. In Dan's article;

>A rule of thumb is that it takes five years from an American, German, or Japanese automaker to dream up a new car design and launch that model on the roads; in China, it’s closer to 18 months.

Not only is China 3 - 5 times faster in terms of product launches, they would have launch it with a production scale that is at least double the output of other auto marker. If you were to put capacity into the equation as well, China is an order of magnitude faster than any competing countries, at half the cost if not even lower.

Every single year since 2022 China has added more solar power capacity than the entire US solar capacity. And they are still accelerating, with the current roadmap and trend they could install double the entire US solar power capacity in a single year by 2030.

CATL's Sodium Ion Battery is already in production and will be used by EVs and large scale energy storage by end of this year. The cost advantage of these new EV would mean there is partially zero chance EU can compete. And if EU are moaning about it now, they cant even imagine what is coming.

Thanks to AI pushing up memory and NAND price. YMTC and CXMT now have enough breathing room to catch up. If they play this right, I wont be surprised by 2035 30 - 40% of DRAM and NAND will be made by the two Chinese firms. Although judging from their past execution record I highly doubt this will happen, but expect may be 10-15% maximum.

Beyond tech, there are also other part of manufacturing that China has matched or exceeded rest of the world without being noticed by many. Lab Grown Diamond, Cosmetic Production, Agricultural Machinery, Reinforced glass etc. Their 10 years plan on agricultural improvement also come to fruition especially in terms of fruit and veg. I wont be surprised if they no long need US soy bean within 10 years time.

All in all a lot of things in China has passed escape velocity and there is no turning back. China understand US better than US understand themselves, and US doesn't even have any idea about China. I think the quote from the article sums this up pretty well.

"Beijing has been preparing for Cold War without eagerness for waging it, while the US wants to wage a Cold War without preparing for it.".

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46273326

nradov 2 hours ago|
China doesn't particularly need US soybeans but they're going to have to continue importing soybeans from somewhere (like Brazil or Canada) indefinitely. Like any commodity, soybeans are (somewhat) fungible. China doesn't have the right combination of arable land and cheap fertilizer necessary to be self-sufficient in soy at an economically viable cost. Of course, China's population is now declining so ironically that could increase their food security in a few decades.
url00 4 hours ago||
As often the case with Dan's letters, a well balanced take on many issues. I particularly appreciated the thoughts on AI and (what I read) the undertone of infrastructure being the real differentiator between the US effort and China. We'll see how it plays out this year. "May you live in exciting times" etc.
coderatlarge 3 hours ago||
from the piece:

“ the median age of the latest Y Combinator cohort is only 24, down from 30 just three years ago “

does yc publish stats to validate?

bix6 3 hours ago||
Quoted as 24 vs 30 in 2022 from one of the partners here: https://www.businessinsider.com/yc-founders-younger-under-mo...
et1337 3 hours ago||
Didn’t we just have a front page article about the average founder age increasing well beyond 30 this year? Is it a non-normal distribution or what?
bix6 3 hours ago|||
Tunguz shows early 40s as the median

https://tomtunguz.com/founder-age-median-trend/

YC trends younger given what they’re looking for

InitialLastName 3 hours ago|||
Lots of explanations with power here:

- There's a hard edge to the distribution that isn't far from 24 (I'd expect relatively few sub-18-year-old YC founders, but more 31+-year-olds)

- Older founders (with more experience, larger networks and less life flexibility) aren't a good fit for incubators.

152334H 3 hours ago|
> Beijing has been preparing for Cold War without eagerness for waging it, while the US wants to wage a Cold War without preparing for it.

great line

slfreference 3 hours ago||
I don't care who the next hegemon will be; US or China. But please pray, can these people tell what their next strategy is for the rest of the world after the Cold War ends. Will the next regime advance sciences further after whichever side wins the Cold War? Can't that be done without the war? US has been hegemon since last 5 or so decades; has it worked out best even ONLY for the Americans if not for the rest of the world. I will ask a very obvious question taught as a intuition pump by Daniel Dennett, "Then What? Then What? Then What?". Do these blob forces have post-Cold War steps figured out for the best of humanity, if not for whole of humanity but a national subset.

Here is a fun representation I have in my mind:

Galactic Emperor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfQbm8Wk2vU

bigyabai 2 hours ago||
I don't know if it's that hard to figure out, at least in the short-term. China's #1 goal should be to keep the value of their currency stable and push hard on the neoliberal expansionist path. If the United States' financialized economy starts to sag, this is China's opportunity to provide discount stability to the nations that China needs as allies.
apples_oranges 3 hours ago||
It's not clear what the US plan even is. Move all manufacturing back home and compete with China ASAP?
glitchc 2 hours ago|||
The US doesn't have a plan, it has a framework. The framework allows it to be nimble in a way that centralized economies (like China) can never match. My money's on the US out-competing everyone else in the long run.
seanmcdirmid 2 hours ago||
I can’t tell if this is sarcasm or if you are serious. The USA’s framework is to just wish for things to happen and then be surprised when those things don’t happen. There is basically no executing plan beyond grifting money to a few corporations because they supported the president during the election.
shimman 1 hour ago||
Seriously, and we have one of the most centrally planned economies in existence, it's just controlled by the elites rather than through democratic norms as it was during the new deal coalition.
jaapz 3 hours ago||||
With trump at the helm, do you think there is much of a plan?
anon7000 3 hours ago||||
Even if it’s a goal, it’s not a plan. The article talks about it, but Biden’s push for manufacturing wasn’t very aggressive, and Trump has basically stopped it. We’ve seen a loss in manufacturing jobs from tariffs and Trump idiotically deported Korean engineers working in local battery production plants. Simply protecting our existing companies (which are not very efficient, see shipbuilders) is not even close to enough to competing
loudmax 2 hours ago||||
The "US plan," is driven by the executive office. That is to say, the by the US president.

Insofar as there is any plan, the current officeholder's priorities are to project the appearance of personal power on television. If you're wondering what's going on strategically, don't go thinking that there's some grand plan, or even an intention to benefit the United States in the long term. There are some people in the cabinet who are thinking long term, but that's not universal, and that's not what they're selected for. Every action that is taken is to satisfy the president's narcissism and ego in the present moment. You have to understand the "US plan" in this light for anything coming out of the executive office to make sense.

lawn 2 hours ago||||
Plan?

They don't even have a concept of a plan.

dfxm12 2 hours ago|||
The US plan is to enrich oligarchs who are friendly with Trump and to enact white nationalist policies.

Anything beyond that is just like a kid playing an arcade game without putting any quarters in.

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