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Posted by Amorymeltzer 1/1/2026

2025 Letter(danwang.co)
398 points | 323 commentspage 3
stackbutterflow 1/1/2026|
> Narrowness of mind is something that makes me uneasy about the tech world.

> The Bay Area has all sorts of autistic tendencies. Though Silicon Valley values the ability to move fast, the rest of society has paid more attention to instances in which tech wants to break things.

> There’s a general lack of cultural awareness in the Bay Area. It’s easy to hear at these parties that a person’s favorite nonfiction book is Seeing Like a State while their aspirationally favorite novel is Middlemarch.

It's refreshing to read someone addressing this aspect of the Mecca of the tech word.

For the reasons above the tech elites are the ones I trust the less and fear the most when they are involved in national and international politics. And I think the current state of the US is directly caused by the rise of post dot com Silicon Valley.

paulpauper 1/1/2026||
This is such a long letter it would take me probably 3 months to write it. I would have to end my year by September and spend the rest of the year writing the letter.
blurbleblurble 1/1/2026||
All, please keep the discussion civil and free of humor
chr15m 1/3/2026|
lol
OGEnthusiast 1/1/2026||
Spot on by Dan as always, especially about the decline of Europe and the rise of China.
mxschumacher 1/1/2026||
My copy of Breakneck arrived a few days ago and I'm rushing through the book, hard to put down, highly recommended
ryukoposting 1/2/2026||
I've lived in Silicon Valley for exactly 3 days now. Recently moved from the Midwest.

There are two kinds of people in San Jose: locals who are normal folks you'd find anywhere, and techies with the AI brainworm. People who are astonished by the natural beauty of this place, and people who are astonished by an office park because there are Apple and Nvidia logos on it. It's all incredibly weird and I don't like it much.

keiferski 1/2/2026||
It is really quite unfortunate that one of the most naturally beautiful places in the world is full of jobs that require sitting inside in front of a computer all day long.
ryukoposting 1/2/2026||
It is peculiar, isn't it. SV also seems hell-bent on expanding outward rather than upward, which runs against the staggering cost of land here. That approach is also rather anti-urbanist, which is unexpected for a place that's otherwise pretty progressive.

I've known people who are walking contradictions (I'm one of them), but SV is a place of contradictions. I've never seen that before.

saagarjha 1/2/2026||
Some people are both, I assure you
kalkin 1/1/2026||
I have nonspecific positive associations with Dan Wang's name, so I rolled my eyes a bit but kept going when "If the Bay Area once had an impish side, it has gone the way of most hardware tinkerers and hippie communes" was followed up by "People aren’t reminiscing over some lost golden age..."

But I stopped at this:

> “AI will be either the best or the worst thing ever.” It’s a Pascal’s Wager

That's not what Pascal's wager is! Apocalyptic religion dates back more than two thousand years and Blaise Pascal lived in the 17th century! When Rosa Luxemburg said to expect "socialism or barbarism", she was not doing a Pascal's Wager! Pascal's Wager doesn't just involve infinite stakes, but also infinitesimal probabilities!

The phrase has become a thought-terminating cliche for the sort of person who wants to dismiss any claim that stakes around AI are very high, but has too many intellectual aspirations to just stop with "nothing ever happens." It's no wonder that the author finds it "hard to know what to make of" AI 2027 and says that "why they put that year in their title remains beyond me."

It's one thing to notice the commonalities between some AI doom discourse and apocalyptic religion. It's another to make this into such a thoughtless reflex that you also completely muddle your understanding of the Christian apologetics you're referencing. There's a sort of determined refusal to even grasp the arguments that an AI doomer might make, even while writing an extended meditation on AI, for which I've grown increasingly intolerant. It's 2026. Let's advance the discourse.

anthuswilliams 1/2/2026||
I'm not sure I understand your complaint. Is it that he misuses the term Pascal's Wager? Or more generally that he doesn't extend enough credibility to the ideas in AI 2027?
kalkin 1/2/2026|||
More the former. Re the latter, it's not so much that I'm annoyed he doesn't agree with the AI2027 people, it's that (he spends a few paragraphs talking about them while) he doesn't appear to have bothered trying to even understand them.
NooneAtAll3 1/2/2026|||
seems to be yes and yes

Pascal's wager isn't about "all or nothing", it is about "small chance of infinite outcome" which makes narrow-minded strategizing wack

and commenter is much more pro-ai2027 than article author (and I have no idea what it even is)

dworks 1/2/2026||
It's a very Silicon Valley thing to drop things like Pascal's Wager, Jevon's paradox etc into your sentences to appear smart.
almostdeadguy 1/1/2026||
> I believe that Silicon Valley possesses plenty of virtues. To start, it is the most meritocratic part of America. Tech is so open towards immigrants that it has driven populists into a froth of rage. It remains male-heavy and practices plenty of gatekeeping. But San Francisco better embodies an ethos of openness relative to the rest of the country. Industries on the east coast — finance, media, universities, policy — tend to more carefully weigh name and pedigree.

I believe I read that 27% of the founders in the YC Spring 25 class went to an Ivy League school and 40% previously worked at a magnificent 7 company. I'm not saying this is any worse than the east coast, but so much for name and pedigree not mattering.

Northern California is what it always has been: the barrier wall of manifest destiny, where instead of crossing the ocean the pioneers and all subsequent generations stayed to incubate the same incentives, and have been relentlessly in pursuit of the next gold rush. Gold, yellow journalism, semiconductors, personal computing, SaaS, crypto, AI, etc. It's the sink drain attractor of people looking to improve their fortunes in one way or another, but almost always around some kind of bonanza of concentrated opportunity. The concept of it being "meritocratic" is a rephrasing of ideology that's always existed about the region: you too could get rich here. But I don't really see any difference in the networks of power that exist in SV as do the rest of the country.

I grew up in the bay area and am far happier living outside it. I'm happier to be in a place where art and the humanities are valued instead of cast aside as immaterial or silly or a distraction. I'm happier to live in a place where people have varied interests instead of orienting their life around whatever the prevailing Big Thing is.

> So the 20-year-olds who accompanied Mr. Musk into the Department of Government Efficiency did not, I would say, distinguish themselves with their judiciousness. The Bay Area has all sorts of autistic tendencies. Though Silicon Valley values the ability to move fast, the rest of society has paid more attention to instances in which tech wants to break things. It is not surprising that hardcore contingents on both the left and the right have developed hostility to most everything that emerges from Silicon Valley.

I see some positive aspects as to more inclusive definitions of autism and neurodivergence, but I hate that we're at the point where "trying to get rich at all costs" is now perceived as autistic (and let's be clear: using mobile gas turbines that get people sick to generate power for AI is not "autistic"). Greed is not autistic, but of course the ideology of SV is that nobody actually cares about money there. Why else would they have apartments without furniture and piles of pizza boxes. It must be the autism.

> While critics of AI cite the spread of slop and rising power bills, AI’s architects are more focused on its potential to produce surging job losses. Anthropic chief Dario Amodei takes pains to point out that AI could push the unemployment rate to 20 percent by eviscerating white-collar work. I wonder whether this message is helping to endear his product to the public.

The animating concern of developing AI since 2015 has basically been "MAD" applied to the technology. The Bostrom book mentioned later in this article was clearly instrumental in creating this language to think about AI, as you can see many tech CEOs began getting "concerned" about AI around this time, prior to many of the big developments in AI like transformers. One of the seminal emails of OpenAI between Musk and Altman talks about starting a "Manhattan Project for AI". This was a useful concept to graft the development of these companies onto:

1. Firstly, it's a threat to investors. Get in on the ground floor or you will get left behind. We are building tomorrow's winners and losers and there are a lot of losers in the future.

2. Secondly, it leads to a natural source of government support. This is a national security concern. Fund this, guarantee the success of this, or America will lose.

On both counts, this framing seems to be working pretty well.

bix6 1/1/2026||
Dam Wang, good read!
ossa-ma 1/1/2026|
The beginning perfectly embodies the culture in Silicon Valley and touches on a crucial part that I notice when I visit: the complete lack of self expression or as I would put it ZERO drip.

Remove the tech, what does SF contribute to the world wrt culture? Especially when compared to other metropolitan cities: NY, London, LA, Tokyo.

saagarjha 1/2/2026||
I think the tech unfortunately drives out the people who would contribute this
dpark 1/1/2026||
Maybe I’m missing some nuance but are you just saying that folks in Silicon Valley aren’t cool?
decimalenough 1/2/2026|||
How many musicians, artists, fashion designers from the Valley can you name? Even SF seems to be punching below its weight now that gentrification has forced out the producers, and (as noted in the article) the tech elite seems aggressively uninterested in patronizing art of any kind, be it opera or nightclubs.
mjmsmith 1/1/2026|||
The only problem with Silicon Valley is they just have no taste.
dpark 1/1/2026||
I think most people in general have no taste. But taste is also so subjective that it’s hard to meaningfully discuss. Everyone probably thinks they have great taste.

Part of the Silicon Valley ethos (and techie ethos in general) is the rejection of fashion. Comfort over style. Casual over classy.

Even the “stealth wealth” thing that trended for a while seemed to be an expression of this. Casual wear, but really expensive.

mopsi 1/2/2026||
Rejection of fashion has always seemed like a fear of failure to me. Trying to dress well means exposing yourself to evaluation, comparison and the possibility of getting it wrong. The traditions and standards of fashion have accumulated over centuries and are fairly resistant to being redefined (especially by rookies), which makes success depend on external criteria and not on personal rules. Rejecting fashion altogether removes the risk of failure.

I think this is reflected in how techies are drawn to the safety of techwear, where fit and color matter less and clothing can be chosen and justified through objective criteria like weather resistance parameters.

dpark 1/2/2026||
I’m sure that’s also a factor. But I do think it’s one of many. Non-techies often take their fashion cues from people they admire. If we assume techies do the same, then they will likely be looking up to people who have largely rejected fashion.
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