Worth noting that the implied volatility extracted here is largely a function of how far OTM the strike is relative to current spot, not some market-specific view on $100. If NVDA were trading at $250 today, the options chain would reprice and you'd extract similar vol for whatever strike was ~45% below. The analysis answers "what's the probability of a near-halving from here" more than "what's special about $100." Still useful for the prediction contest, but the framing makes it sound like the market is specifically opining on that price level.

Everyone is saying data center build outs are the main thing to look out for. But those data centers with all those gpus will need to replace those gpus right? Nvidia will come up with better, faster, more efficient gpus.

LLM use age won't crash either, it might decline or taper off but it's here to stay.

My concern is better models that won't need a whole of GPU, or China comping up with their own foundry and GPUs that compete. There is also the strategy issue, can Nvidia's leadership think global enough? will they start pursuing data centers in europe, latam, asia? can they make gpus cheap enough to compete in those regions?

The way things are, lots of countries want this tech local, but they can't deny the demand either.

Europe for example might not want anything to do with American AI companies, but they still need GPUs for their own models. But can Nvidia rebrand itself as a not-so-american-but-also-american company? Like Coca Cola for example. i.e.: not just operate in europe but have an HQ in europe that has half their execs working from there, and the rest from california. Or perhaps asia is better (doubt)? either way, they can't live off of US demand forever, or ignore geopolitics.

There is one thing everybody forgets when making such predictions: companies don't stand still. Nvidia and every other tech business is constantly exploring new options, taking over competitors, buying startups with novel technologies etc... Nvidia is no slouch in that regard, and their recent quasi-acquisition of Groq is just one example of this. So, when attempting at making predictions, we're looking at a moving target, not systems set in stone. If the people at the helm are smart (and they are), you can expect lots of action and ups and downs - especially in the AI sphere.

My personal opinion, having witnessed first hand nearly 40 years of tech evolution, is that this AI revolution is different. We're at the very beginning of a true paradigm shift: the commoditization of intelligence. If that's not enough to make people think twice before betting against it, I don't know what is. And it's not just computing that is going to change. Everything is about to change, for better or worse.

Will AI remain like a simple query engine? I think not. AI is already iterative and does so many recalculations at every step and every new piece of data. Large models that know-it-all are being supplemented by more specialized models or models that have special access to private data. Why wouldn't you consult 100 models of a medical opinion or a stock market analysis. The point is, that for the next few years we will likely consume as many "tokens" as are affordably available, depending on the applications need for more computations. NVidia will develop it's other products and will develop edge devices and every type of GPUs, TPUs, etc. Markets climb a wall of worry and investors love greater fools whenever they are available.

The option market is an insurance market.

Most people buy low-strike puts as insurance against catastrophic market events.

Since catastrophic crises are rare, the price of these puts is quite low. But since many people fear a crisis, the price is very inflated over the actual probabilites. Which is why there are lots of people selling those puts as a business. These guys will bite the dust in case of a major crisis, but will make a ton if the market stays afloat.

Realistically, the current US government is so obsessed with its image that it will do everything to avoid a market crash during its term. The president has been pushing for lower rates for a while, and he's likely going to succeed in removing the head of the Fed and do just that. Lowering interest rates is just another way of pumping investment.

NVidia is definitely not going below $100 in 2026.

checks calendar Ah, NVIDIA earnings call is close - prepare for the inevitable doomer articles.

Who said that monads don't have any application?

This is more of a derivative pricing article and has nothing to do with nvidia really

LLM is already an outdated term in terms of frontier models. Continued build out of ever larger data centers will drive the coming wave of robotics with varying forms of world models. People who claim LLMs won’t change the world are stuck in some sort of tunnel vision, IMO. I don’t think Nvidia is at risk of the AI industry falling flat. More like from large companies creating their own chips specific to their needs (ie Tesla). Although there aren’t many companies in the world that are THAT ambitious. I think Nvidia continues its general trend upwards.

This is a market can stay irrational problem. Modern compute infrastructure from phones, 5G, data centers, LLMs have their energy economics exactly backwards which combined with plastic waste is causing a massive global economic distortion that will correct itself bc physics doesn’t care about the white house, Vanguard, TSMC or anyone else. How long we can borrow from the future and put stress on the poor to prop up this insanely wasteful system who can say.