They're enjoying a massive demand for GPUs due to AI blowing up, at a time when there isn't much competition, yet the technology is already pleateauing, with similar offerings from AMD, not to mention proven training & inference chips from Google & AWS, plus the Chinese national strategy of prioritizing domestic chips

The only way the stock could remain at its current price or grow (which is why you'd hold it) is if demand would just keep going up (with the same lifecycle as current GPUs) and that there would be no competition, which the latter to me us just never going to be a thing.

Investors are convinced that Nvidia can maintain its lead because they have the "software" side, I.e. CUDA, which to me is so ridiculous, as if with the kind of capital that's being deployed into these datacenters, you couldn't fit your models into other software stacks by hiring people....

checks calendar Ah, NVIDIA earnings call is close - prepare for the inevitable doomer articles.

New competition is an issue. It wasn’t as lucrative to compete with nvidia in the past

This is more of a derivative pricing article and has nothing to do with nvidia really

That's smoke and mirrors. You can't logically predict the market. It never worked.

Who said that monads don't have any application?

The thing is, in this gold rush, Nvidia is the one selling shovels.

The simple answer to the question:

Nvidia stock crash will happen when the vendor financing bubble bursts.

They are engaged in a dangerous game of circular financing. So it is case of when, not if the chickens come home to roost.

It is simply not sustainable.

How much of their turnover is financed directly or indirectly by themselves, then leveraged further by their 'customers' to collaterize further investments?

Are they already "too big to fail"? For better or worse, they are 'all in' on AI.