The thing is, in this gold rush, Nvidia is the one selling shovels.

The simple answer to the question:

Nvidia stock crash will happen when the vendor financing bubble bursts.

They are engaged in a dangerous game of circular financing. So it is case of when, not if the chickens come home to roost.

It is simply not sustainable.

The real question is what else will this cause to fall when it does happen.

It's forward looking P/E is 24-26. That doesn't seem like a huge crash is coming. It could come down a bit but they print money. They also have potential car market and robots coming in.

was expecting some actual reasons presented as to why this would happen. instead got some math.

I'm calling it - this is a submarine article to prove that Haskell is used in the real world to solve actual problems

Worth noting that the implied volatility extracted here is largely a function of how far OTM the strike is relative to current spot, not some market-specific view on $100. If NVDA were trading at $250 today, the options chain would reprice and you'd extract similar vol for whatever strike was ~45% below. The analysis answers "what's the probability of a near-halving from here" more than "what's special about $100." Still useful for the prediction contest, but the framing makes it sound like the market is specifically opining on that price level.

"Predictably" prediction markets have opened up space in the void left by journalism for tea-leaf reading with the fig leaf of mathy jargon.