Worth noting that the implied volatility extracted here is largely a function of how far OTM the strike is relative to current spot, not some market-specific view on $100. If NVDA were trading at $250 today, the options chain would reprice and you'd extract similar vol for whatever strike was ~45% below. The analysis answers "what's the probability of a near-halving from here" more than "what's special about $100." Still useful for the prediction contest, but the framing makes it sound like the market is specifically opining on that price level.

"Predictably" prediction markets have opened up space in the void left by journalism for tea-leaf reading with the fig leaf of mathy jargon.

I’m more curious how these “future” contract will work out. Supposedly, a bunch of RAM is paid and allocated for that isn’t even made yet. If the bubble ever pops, the collateral is going to be on the order of 2007 subprime mortgage crisis

I mean common sense reasoning tells me that if OpenAI has decided to turn into an ad business, the actual return expected from investing into compute isn't going to be nearly as great as advertised.

Since there's such an interdependence between nvidia and the other companies involed in AI to the point that if one fails they all fail, shouldn't the analysis focus on the weakest link in the AI circle jerk?

People don't actually believe this type of analysis... do they?

Nvidia PE ratio: 44

I do hope they crash so that I can buy as much as possible at a discount.

Click bait for teaching options analysis

It's easy to predict that a bubble will pop, but there's a variance in the timing of approximately half a human lifetime, and if you don't guess that correctly, you throw away yours.

Everything that can't go on forever will eventually stop. But when?