I don't think it'll crash. The US Federal Government will throw money at anything right now.

was expecting some actual reasons presented as to why this would happen. instead got some math.

That's smoke and mirrors. You can't logically predict the market. It never worked.

The simple answer to the question:

Nvidia stock crash will happen when the vendor financing bubble bursts.

They are engaged in a dangerous game of circular financing. So it is case of when, not if the chickens come home to roost.

It is simply not sustainable.

It's forward looking P/E is 24-26. That doesn't seem like a huge crash is coming. It could come down a bit but they print money. They also have potential car market and robots coming in.

The real question is what else will this cause to fall when it does happen.

People don't actually believe this type of analysis... do they?

This is fun math to play with, but completely misses the point of how and why options are priced the way they are. Think of horse racing - when a horse is 1000 to 1 odds the odds of that horse winning are much, much lower. The odds are non-zero, but the oddsmakers are considering who the other side is and why they are buying that ticket.

Most options are actually used to hedge large positions and are rolled over well before the "due date". YOLOing calls and puts is a Robin Hood phenomenon and the odds of "fair pricing" are heavily affected by these big players, so using that data as some sort of price discovery is flawed from the get go.