> To validate the thesis that the Yen unwind is the primary driver of volatility, we must examine the sequence of events. The crash did not happen in a vacuum; it followed a precise timeline …
> It wasn't just about rates anymore; it was about the stability of the U.S.-led global order
> The unwinding of a carry trade is not a monolithic event; it is a cascade that ripples outward
It‘s like almost in every paragraph. I don’t understand why this gets to be on the frontpage to be honest. It just reads horrible even if some of the points may be true (or hallucinated, who knows)
You dot even understand what your reading anymore. Cant tell whether you're reading a hallucination or someones thoughts.
"I don't agree / understand this, it must not be real!"
Now, you have to wonder: is my grammar just poor? Or did I intentionally inject spelling and grammar errors into the output or an llm? Is it in my system prompt to do this?
Because the fundamentals are basic:
Creating money out of thin air generally creates inflation, because theirs is more currency chasing the same amount of assets.
But the Devil is in the details, because there are hundreds of currencies, one currency can be exchanged for another, and interest rates vary all over the world.
Then once that starts to make sense, you open up a box called “derivatives,” and now the complexity just went off the charts.
I only need to understand it in the context of loans on assets, so I can do the math in my head or in excel. Occasionally I’ll vibe code this stuff in Python.
Because I’m not diving into the deep end of complexity, the books I absolutely LOVE are the cautionary tales of when it all blows up.
In that respect, I think “when genius fails” is an all timer.
Nearly everyone knows about the Great Recession, and the depression and the dot com bubble.
But the collapse of Long Term Capital Management was the canary in the coal mine.
LTCM blew up for all of the most predictable reasons, and as the name implies, nearly everyone involved in LTCM were at the top of their game.
Another book that is more folksy is “a man for all markets“, a book about the dude who revolutionized stock options, largely due to a fascination with Blackjack!
(The LTCM guys were big time gamblers too.)
https://www.google.com/search?q=a+man+for+all+markets+by+ed+...
It seems like their conclusion is "hold lots of yen"? We'll see I guess.
If you look at Japan, the aspects of its economy and society which stand out the most are:
- Rigid economic structure and processes.
- Economy dominated by huge corporations, without much room for startups.
- Highly concentrated urban population.
- Population decline. Many young people are not dating and not getting married, can't afford much on their salaries working in the city.
If you believe them, then you can hedge buy either shorting TLT(betting treasury yields will rise), or going long Yen (e.g. FXY shares/calls).
I bought some FXY calls but just enough to hedge the Yen prices of my upcoming Tokyo trip in case they're right.
Financial doom porn sells well, but it's almost always wrong.
* They are investing in AI, both financially and by corporate communication, over and above everything else and pissing off damn near everyone in the process
* The XBox brand is tanking
* Windows is an utter disaster, according to Microsoft themselves, and Valve is so dispirited with it as the future for gaming that they've invested millions into a linux-based framework to run Windows games
Two words:
*New Coke.*
In retrospect, Coke made mistakes, but at the time their logic was kinda sound. Market was changing, people were changing, product tested really well, etc.
And they owned up to the mistake and reverted in under 90 days. Honestly, they probably came out stronger and re-affirmed the attachment that people have with the brand.
In addition, they haven't made that mistake again and have been much smarter protecting their core while chasing trends. Free-style is a brilliant bit of tech, marketing, and logistics combined.
Well, till the shitty AI christmas ads anyway.
I worked in what other calls "Adversarial Interoperability" [1] but the scale of Valve is on another level.
[1] https://www.nektra.com/main/2020/01/12/reflecting-on-16-year...
Finance bros will make their way in here soon to give a better peanut gallery, but I think "is there something here" comes down to do you believe the final bit of the articles opening act:
> When correlations between historically uncorrelated assets (e.g. Gold, Bitcoin, Microsoft, and Silver) approach 1.0 during a sell-off, it serves as a distinct indicator that traders are not selling what they want to sell, but rather what they must sell in order to meet margin calls in a funding currency that is rapidly appreciating against their liabilities.
God job
Should someone that calls 2.4 percent movement bloodbath be taken seriously?