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Posted by jart 2 days ago

The Great Unwind(occupywallst.com)
322 points | 343 commentspage 2
thegrim000 2 days ago|
Utter rubbish from an extremely biased source. Every time they say something like "didn't you notice X" or "your portfolio must look like Y" the answer is nope, you're completely wrong. Every time they talk about some major "crash" you can just go look at it and see that it recovered within 48 hours and looked identical to dozens of other events through recent history. The outright calls for violence + intentionally destroying our own economy to "stick it to the man" at the end surely make me believe this is some rational analysis.
aeneas_ory 2 days ago||
It‘s really hard to read this article, it smells of LLM generated slop once you get past the first couple of paragraphs - lots of negative parallelisms and lots of words without adding value to the sentence:

> To validate the thesis that the Yen unwind is the primary driver of volatility, we must examine the sequence of events. The crash did not happen in a vacuum; it followed a precise timeline …

> It wasn't just about rates anymore; it was about the stability of the U.S.-led global order

> The unwinding of a carry trade is not a monolithic event; it is a cascade that ripples outward

It‘s like almost in every paragraph. I don’t understand why this gets to be on the frontpage to be honest. It just reads horrible even if some of the points may be true (or hallucinated, who knows)

potsandpans 1 day ago|
I have a sense that were in a moment of mass hysteria.

You dot even understand what your reading anymore. Cant tell whether you're reading a hallucination or someones thoughts.

"I don't agree / understand this, it must not be real!"

Now, you have to wonder: is my grammar just poor? Or did I intentionally inject spelling and grammar errors into the output or an llm? Is it in my system prompt to do this?

MaxfordAndSons 2 days ago||
Can anyone recommend a good source to ramp up one's understanding of macroeconomics/monetary policy to a point where they can make sense of this? Starting from more or less a layman's understanding. Could be a book or course, but doesn't have to be university quality, a good blog or youtube channel could do.
johnvanommen 2 days ago|
This is such a loaded question.

Because the fundamentals are basic:

Creating money out of thin air generally creates inflation, because theirs is more currency chasing the same amount of assets.

But the Devil is in the details, because there are hundreds of currencies, one currency can be exchanged for another, and interest rates vary all over the world.

Then once that starts to make sense, you open up a box called “derivatives,” and now the complexity just went off the charts.

I only need to understand it in the context of loans on assets, so I can do the math in my head or in excel. Occasionally I’ll vibe code this stuff in Python.

Because I’m not diving into the deep end of complexity, the books I absolutely LOVE are the cautionary tales of when it all blows up.

In that respect, I think “when genius fails” is an all timer.

Nearly everyone knows about the Great Recession, and the depression and the dot com bubble.

But the collapse of Long Term Capital Management was the canary in the coal mine.

LTCM blew up for all of the most predictable reasons, and as the name implies, nearly everyone involved in LTCM were at the top of their game.

Another book that is more folksy is “a man for all markets“, a book about the dude who revolutionized stock options, largely due to a fascination with Blackjack!

(The LTCM guys were big time gamblers too.)

https://www.google.com/search?q=a+man+for+all+markets+by+ed+...

meindnoch 2 days ago||
Sir, just tell me what do I do to make money! Do I buy? Do I sell? And what?
nojvek 1 day ago|
Buy when others are selling. Sell when others are buying.
meindnoch 1 day ago||
Thank you sir!!
IncreasePosts 2 days ago||
Anyone doing any attempt at market analysis should lay out the trades they've made and the time frames they're talking about. So we can come back later and point a finger at them and laugh.

It seems like their conclusion is "hold lots of yen"? We'll see I guess.

jongjong 2 days ago||
Japan is interesting because it has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio of any developed country and most other countries in the world are increasing their debt-to-GDP ratio; in effect, they're all moving towards a Japanese reality due to the fiat system's lack of hard monetary constraints.

If you look at Japan, the aspects of its economy and society which stand out the most are:

- Rigid economic structure and processes.

- Economy dominated by huge corporations, without much room for startups.

- Highly concentrated urban population.

- Population decline. Many young people are not dating and not getting married, can't afford much on their salaries working in the city.

helios_invictus 2 days ago||
I've skimmed this article, but what does this mean for most of the people in the US?
largbae 2 days ago||
The author is implying that BoJ can/might/will cause appreciation of the Yen, which will force folks who are short(borrowing Yen) to buy USD assets to go underwater, forcing liquidation to pay back the Yen, and appreciating the Yen more. It's possible but there is no guarantee it would be a disruptive feedback loop or this year or etc.

If you believe them, then you can hedge buy either shorting TLT(betting treasury yields will rise), or going long Yen (e.g. FXY shares/calls).

I bought some FXY calls but just enough to hedge the Yen prices of my upcoming Tokyo trip in case they're right.

forgetfreeman 2 days ago||
We are profoundly fucked.
alex_young 2 days ago||
We always are. And yet, number go up.
forgetfreeman 2 days ago||
Tell that to Adolf Merckle.
mwt 2 days ago||
Only through the first two paragraphs but a little turned off by the "everybody else is wrong, we are right and it's this one specific thing" attitude when it the topic is understanding something as complex and opaque as the global economy
Trasmatta 2 days ago||
It reads exactly like a WallStreetBets "effort post" where someone has some pet theory that somehow explains the market in a way that nobody else understands, but is almost always either completely wrong, or a vast oversimplification
01100011 2 days ago||
Fintwit is full of this crap. Fortunately it also has a few smart people who put it into context.

Financial doom porn sells well, but it's almost always wrong.

everybodyknows 2 days ago|||
For a better-credentialed opinion on Japan, here's the former Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs:

https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debt-crisis-in-japan

svnt 2 days ago|||
Yeah that part is a bit red string but the analysis further down is more reasonable. I have no idea whether it is an opportunity or someone grabbed the domain and going for a pump-and-dump, either seems plausible.
terminalbraid 2 days ago||
Except the part where they confuse "cryptography" for cryptocurrency. Assuming they knew the difference.
ToucanLoucan 2 days ago|||
Personally I think Microsoft's stock is crashing less about any of this (though it is a hell of a theory IMO) and more to do with the fact that:

* They are investing in AI, both financially and by corporate communication, over and above everything else and pissing off damn near everyone in the process

* The XBox brand is tanking

* Windows is an utter disaster, according to Microsoft themselves, and Valve is so dispirited with it as the future for gaming that they've invested millions into a linux-based framework to run Windows games

GorbachevyChase 2 days ago|||
I’m a little impressed at how a company whose business model is to sell a product they developed in the 1990s over and over again while making inconsequential and non-breaking changes from year to year somehow still manage to screw that up. In my own opinion, they have always been a diabolical company. I’m glad to see them fail.
johnvanommen 2 days ago|||
> I’m a little impressed at how a company whose business model is to sell a product they developed in the 1990s over and over again while making inconsequential and non-breaking changes from year to year somehow still manage to screw that up.

Two words:

*New Coke.*

petethered 2 days ago||
This wasn't nearly as bad as what's going on with Microsoft and Windows.

In retrospect, Coke made mistakes, but at the time their logic was kinda sound. Market was changing, people were changing, product tested really well, etc.

And they owned up to the mistake and reverted in under 90 days. Honestly, they probably came out stronger and re-affirmed the attachment that people have with the brand.

In addition, they haven't made that mistake again and have been much smarter protecting their core while chasing trends. Free-style is a brilliant bit of tech, marketing, and logistics combined.

ToucanLoucan 1 day ago||
> Honestly, they probably came out stronger and re-affirmed the attachment that people have with the brand.

Well, till the shitty AI christmas ads anyway.

kyorochan 2 days ago|||
They have been more focused on cloud stuff (and now AI) for a long time.
wslh 2 days ago|||
Love the last line, what Valve has done on Windows emulation is herculean, I don't know (it would be great to know) other businesses creating/investing in incredible and risky third-party compatible technologies to run their real business on top of it.

I worked in what other calls "Adversarial Interoperability" [1] but the scale of Valve is on another level.

[1] https://www.nektra.com/main/2020/01/12/reflecting-on-16-year...

tomstockmail 2 days ago||
On the hand at one point the emulation layer becomes the target. Hopefully game developers will realise this and start using native Linux technologies before they are tied to a single companies abstraction layer. Again.
johnvanommen 2 days ago|||
The XBox was named after a Microsoft API. Definitely one of the more clever ways to force developers to eat your dogfood.
georgeecollins 2 days ago||
When it was created DirectX was a really useful thing for game makers. It made it easier to write hardware accelerated applications that were also consumer friendly. Contemporary Windows is full of anti-patterns. MSFT just can't seem to resist sticking things into it that make it less pleasant to use in support of MSFT's ecosystem. It's no wonder Valve invests into trying to be independent of that.
foobiekr 2 days ago|||
Wine is more stable as an API to target than any of the native Linux technologies.
floatrock 2 days ago|||
The Yen Carry Trade isn't some big secret... it's caused enough turmoil that it hit the front pages of the WSJ a few times in last few years (Aug 2024 was a big one iirc)

Finance bros will make their way in here soon to give a better peanut gallery, but I think "is there something here" comes down to do you believe the final bit of the articles opening act:

> When correlations between historically uncorrelated assets (e.g. Gold, Bitcoin, Microsoft, and Silver) approach 1.0 during a sell-off, it serves as a distinct indicator that traders are not selling what they want to sell, but rather what they must sell in order to meet margin calls in a funding currency that is rapidly appreciating against their liabilities.

lijok 2 days ago||
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collingreen 2 days ago||
Do you organize a sit in for your ideas at work? This is a wild comparison.
lijok 2 days ago||
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QuiCasseRien 2 days ago||
Seriously, I really appreciate that article, explaining a lot a thing we see that news are able to understand and explain.

God job

ReptileMan 2 days ago|
>Following the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, U.S. markets opened on January 20 to a bloodbath. The S&P 500 fell 2.1%, the Nasdaq composite dropped 2.4%,

Should someone that calls 2.4 percent movement bloodbath be taken seriously?

thegrim000 2 days ago|
And fully recovered in less than 48 hours. What a bloodbath ..
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