Good post. I guess the transistor has been in play for not even one century, and in any case singularities are everywhere, so who cares? The topic is grandiose and fun to speculate about, but many of the real issues relate to banal media culture and demographic health.

I hope in the afternoon, the plumber is coming in the morning between 7 and 12, and it’s really difficult to pin those guys to a date

Love the title. Yeah, agents need to experiment in the real world to build knowledge beyond what humans have acquired. That will slow the bastards down.

This is a delightful reverse turkey graph (each day before Thanksgiving, the turkey has increasing confidence).

The Singularity as a cultural phenomenon (rather than some future event that may or may not happen or even be possible) is proof that Weber didn't know what he was talking about. Modern (and post-modern) society isn't disenchanted, the window dressing has just changed

> arXiv "emergent" (the count of AI papers about emergence) has a clear, unambiguous R² maximum. The other four are monotonically better fit by a line

The only metric going infinite is the one that measures hype

"Everyone in San Francisco is talking about the singularity" - I'm in SF and not talking about it ;)

> Tuesday, July 18, 2034

4 years early for the Y2K38 bug.

Is it coincidence or Roko's Basilisk who has intervened to start the curve early?

I sincerely hope this is satire. Otherwise it's a crime in statistics: - You wouldn't fit a model where f(t) goes to infinity with finite t. - Most of the parameters suggested are actually a better fit for logistics curves, not even linear fits, but they are lumped together with the magic Arxiv number feature for a hyperbolic fit. - Copilot metric has two degrees and two parameters. dof is zero, so we could've fit literally any other function.

I know we want to talk about singularity, but isn't that just humans freaking out at this point? It will happen on a Tuesday, yeah no joke.

Rosie O'Donnell will expand into "her" ultimate shape on a Tuesday? Wow.