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Posted by randycupertino 5 hours ago

OpenAI resets spending expectations, from $1.4T to $600B(www.cnbc.com)
166 points | 140 commentspage 2
adverbly 3 hours ago|
What do we think? Is this possible without AGI level breakthroughs?

If we see a continuation or even a slowdown of the current trend, the technology overhang, lagging productization, and catch up from the slow adoption of AI by businesses probably gets them part of the way there, but I don't know about 1000% growth at this point... Seems kinda like they're banking on another breakthrough no? And if they don't get the breakthrough, the downside risks such as a competitor of some sort destroying their margin can't exactly be ignored...

jjkaczor 4 hours ago||
So are all the RAM, GPU and HD manufacturers going to honour their purchasing commitments?
snowhale 3 hours ago|
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basilgohar 2 hours ago|||
Maybe we'll get cheap HBM DIMMs in a year or two due to this oversupply. We gotta think positive!
time2buybitcoin 3 hours ago|||
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oxag3n 4 hours ago||
We are at the end of the exponential!

90% chance in 6-12 months spending expectations drop to $0.

iSloth 4 hours ago|
Based on what? Each model so far has been noticeably better than the last, so I don’t see why the next wouldn’t be too?
janalsncm 3 hours ago|||
Even if that were true, it wouldn’t make the growth exponential. There are many other trajectories out there.
iSloth 3 hours ago||
Even if it’s not exponential, I still can’t see logic in it going to zero.
oxag3n 4 hours ago|||
"Can’t you just draw an exponential line on the curve?" - Dario Amodei, February 13th 2026.

But this time draw it for spending expectations.

quesera 3 hours ago||
Are you predicting that OpenAI is out of business in 6-12 months?

I'm not an AI booster, and I don't see "sustainable" in the current markets, but I'd take the other side of that bet!

throw_rust 2 hours ago||
They sure are humble for people who say they are building God.
anizan 3 hours ago||
OpenAI doesnt have a single model in top 10 models being used on openrouter.ai

Thats a weekly metric on https://openrouter.ai/rankings flagship chatgpt 5.2 model is at #16

PMF is now evolving when competitor models are either smarter or cheaper.

mrkeen 3 hours ago||
I hadn't heard of openrouter.ai. I have heard of OpenAI.

Is this like Windows and MacOS not being in the top 10 of distrowatch.com?

sadeshmukh 3 hours ago||
OpenRouter is the leading place to go to to get general purpose models of all sorts. It's fairly popular, and processes tens of trillions of tokens a year.
MeetingsBrowser 3 hours ago|||
The number of tokens seen per model on OpenRouter is not a good measure of quality.

There are so many plausible explanations for why a particular model is or is not ranked in the top 10 by this metric.

Maybe people using OpenAI models are so happy that they don't care about other models and have no need for OpenRouter. Maybe OpenAI models produce fewer tokens, or are more expensive per token.

Your conclusion might be correct, but citing the number of tokens seen by OpenRouter is not very strong evidence.

anizan 1 hour ago||
If ChatGPT 5.2 were actually superior, developers wouldn't be overwhelmingly routing traffic to Gemini 3.1 Pro just 6 days after release.

I use openrouter.ai as the benchmark because it's the foundational API layer for innovator apps that are always the quickest to adopt new tech.

MeetingsBrowser 1 hour ago||
ChatGPT has 100x more interest on google trends than Gemini and OpenRouter combined, which in the context of this article is a much more relevant "popularity score".

But I don't think either are very meaningful when there are actual benchmarks to measure the quality of models on specific tasks.

btown 3 hours ago|||
OpenAI, frankly, benefits from the "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" phenomenon.

And there's a reason that OpenRouter has an OpenAI compatible layer highlighted not deep in docs, but on their Quickstart page: https://openrouter.ai/docs/quickstart#using-the-openai-sdk

The number of projects accessing OpenAI directly, who might only reach for OpenRouter once an alternative is desired, is unknowable (since OpenAI doesn't share usage statistics), but likely meaningful.

Garlef 3 hours ago||
Could also just be a bias in the audience
lumost 4 hours ago||
Didn't oracle take out real loans and spend real dollars based on this commitment?
Yizahi 3 hours ago||
The bankruptcy couldn't happen to nicer company.
dragonwriter 4 hours ago||
Wasn't it always an expectation, not a commitment?

If they didn't appropriately account for risk that the expectation would not pan out, well, that's on them.

lupire 3 hours ago||
How do you account for the risk of something that has ever happened before?
quesera 3 hours ago|||
In the standard risk assessment and mitigation manner: imperfectly, but with the best information available at the time.
dragonwriter 2 hours ago|||
I dunno, but if someone is saying they expect to spend a vast, unprecedented sum of money acquiring an interdependent set of resources that current production could not come anywhere close to accommodating in multiple dimensions, and which money they don’t have and aren’t making in their current operations so that it would also require unprecedented fundraising on top of the other issues, you’d probably want to do some work to verify the plausibility before putting your own resources at risk for the chance of profiting from that spending spree.

Extraordinary claims and all.

gehsty 4 hours ago||
It is insane that they have this little of a handle on their buildout. It makes the $600B feel even more empheral.
louiereederson 4 hours ago||
This article is bad. It is mixing up capex and opex. OpenAI is projecting more spending on compute through their income statement now than they were 6 months ago.
cmiles8 4 hours ago||
This is more complicated than just hand wavy spending expectation resets. Other companies were taking these “commitments” and gearing up for capital investments to meet all that demand which is now vaporizing. That creates a big mess as the hype AI hype machine starts to unravel.

This looks very much like a careful move to deflate the bubble without popping it, but we’ve likely passed that point.

vfclists 3 hours ago|
Does this mean RAM is going to get cheaper?
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