Posted by randycupertino 5 hours ago
If we see a continuation or even a slowdown of the current trend, the technology overhang, lagging productization, and catch up from the slow adoption of AI by businesses probably gets them part of the way there, but I don't know about 1000% growth at this point... Seems kinda like they're banking on another breakthrough no? And if they don't get the breakthrough, the downside risks such as a competitor of some sort destroying their margin can't exactly be ignored...
90% chance in 6-12 months spending expectations drop to $0.
But this time draw it for spending expectations.
I'm not an AI booster, and I don't see "sustainable" in the current markets, but I'd take the other side of that bet!
Thats a weekly metric on https://openrouter.ai/rankings flagship chatgpt 5.2 model is at #16
PMF is now evolving when competitor models are either smarter or cheaper.
Is this like Windows and MacOS not being in the top 10 of distrowatch.com?
There are so many plausible explanations for why a particular model is or is not ranked in the top 10 by this metric.
Maybe people using OpenAI models are so happy that they don't care about other models and have no need for OpenRouter. Maybe OpenAI models produce fewer tokens, or are more expensive per token.
Your conclusion might be correct, but citing the number of tokens seen by OpenRouter is not very strong evidence.
I use openrouter.ai as the benchmark because it's the foundational API layer for innovator apps that are always the quickest to adopt new tech.
But I don't think either are very meaningful when there are actual benchmarks to measure the quality of models on specific tasks.
And there's a reason that OpenRouter has an OpenAI compatible layer highlighted not deep in docs, but on their Quickstart page: https://openrouter.ai/docs/quickstart#using-the-openai-sdk
The number of projects accessing OpenAI directly, who might only reach for OpenRouter once an alternative is desired, is unknowable (since OpenAI doesn't share usage statistics), but likely meaningful.
If they didn't appropriately account for risk that the expectation would not pan out, well, that's on them.
Extraordinary claims and all.
This looks very much like a careful move to deflate the bubble without popping it, but we’ve likely passed that point.