This implies any actual investment took place, which would be an innovative break from the typical scenario with AI firms.

Circular economy money

If you make a billion but only pay $2M for a pardon it might be worth it: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...

> This time, does the $100B actually exist?

Nope. That 100B is in "promises" for over several years in total.

They have $15B out of the $50B from Amazon right now.

> The current administration won't last forever.

This is why OpenAI must IPO and when it does, I won't be surprised that a crash is followed up before 2030.

By then, they will "announce" "AGI" (Which actually means an IPO)

Methodology problems aside, do we have any idea how big OpenRouter is as compared to the big providers?

OpenRouter claims "5M+" users; OpenAI is claiming >900M weekly active users.

I don't really think it's possible to learn anything about the broader market by looking at the OpenRouter model rankings.

1. openrouter is API usage. There is obviously consumer side

2. people often use openrouter for the sole purpose of using a unified chat completions API

3. OpenAI invented chat completions; if you use openrouter for chat completions often you can just switch your endpoint URL to point to the OAI endpoint to avoid the openrouter surcharge!

4. Hence anyone with large enough volume will very likely not use openrouter for OpenAI; there is an active incentive to take the easy route of changing the endpoint URL to OAI’s

This could just be because everyone is using direct OpenAI api keys when using OpenAI.

> The market is saying something about the comparative value of OpenAI.

Is it?

At what point are the models going to all be "good enough", with the differentiating factor being everything else, other than model ranking?

That day will come. Not everyone needs a Ferrari.

Edit: I misread the parent, I think they're saying the same thing.

Or, their customers integrate with them directly.

Sample bias.

> - Amazon's $50B is only $15B, with the rest being "after certain conditions are met", whatever that means (probably an IPO, which isn't happening)

Startup funding is often given in increments depending on milestones being met. Most startups just don’t announce that it’s conditional.

For large funding rounds, nobody gets a check for the full amount at once.

The funding would not be conditional on an IPO because that wouldn’t make any sense. The IPO is the liquidity event for the investors and there’s no reason for a startup to take private investment money that only enters the company after IPO.

This is pretty standard. Usually the conditions are performance benchmarks, but may also include IPO. Typically its done in multiple tranches, e.g. 15B at the start, 5 more if you gain +500m users, 5 more if your profit exceeds X, and the rest for IPO (im over simplifying)

The conditions are either an IPO or achieving AGI. I’d be curious to know how the contract defines AGI. If I recall correctly, the OAI-Microsoft deal just defined it as “AI-shaped tech that can generate $100 billion in annual profits”, which I think is actually close to the correct answer, insofar as we will have AGI when the markets decide we have AGI and not when some set of philosophical criteria seem to be satisfied.

Not to nitpick but to expand, many funding deals (pretty much all above 100M) are structured like that.

You'll never get a billion dollar check from anyone.

I've even seen startups raise like 500k pre-seed with tranches in it, lmao!