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Posted by nkrisc 12 hours ago

US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid(www.cnn.com)
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/us-soldier-charged-usin...
256 points | 297 comments
looksjjhg 4 hours ago|
That’s hilarious … so he’s arrested and put on trial and all the senate and congress are doing the exact same and free? lol
Frieren 3 hours ago||
Only aristocrats can play that game. The soldier is being punished for doing something not allowed for his class status.

This is how a caste system works. People is not judged based on their actions but their relationship to power.

samsari 1 hour ago|||
You're almost right, but "class" and "caste" are not synonyms and cannot be used interchangeably.
rob74 26 minutes ago||
Well, as social mobility between classes becomes increasingly difficult, they become more and more like castes...
21asdffdsa12 4 minutes ago|||
You can already hear the pseudo-theories, justifying the differences for eternity. Blue blooded, of lazy blood, etc. Apply yourselfs and you will win.. adding insult to injury, when you can not win, you must in addition be lazy with only yourself to blame.
baxtr 21 minutes ago|||
OP is right. Status games take many shapes, distinct castes is one special shape.
burnt-resistor 27 minutes ago||||
Not so much class or caste, but a dual-state where an elite have a normative or lawless state, and specific or arbitrary others suffer a parallel prerogative or punitive state. This is the essence of corrupt authoritarianism.

Most Americans share a delusion of perpetual glory days like a former star high school football quarterback with the refusal to accept factual reality that their country isn't uniformly excellent and is terrible in many ways including being extremely superficial, corrupt, dangerous, unhealthy, unhappy, paranoid, over-reacting, immature, selfish, unfair, disinformed, and unequal.

spwa4 2 hours ago|||
> This is how a caste system works.

Not at all. In a caste system a lower caste person will get attacked if he (or especially she) has any success at all. Whether or not what they did was legal or not does not factor into the equation. First priority is that the highest up dalit is lower than the worst drunkard brahmin, even if they have to kill them.

Fricken 2 hours ago||
Tulsa once had what was known as Black Wall Street. There were too many successful black men, so 1921 in the whites massacred everybody. They even brought in planes and dropped bombs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsa_race_massacre

spwa4 17 minutes ago|||
Are we now not at all allowed to reference problems in other societies? We can complain about western society, and complaints from 100 years ago, when even my grandfather wasn't born yet, are valid criticism of America/Europe/... but things that happen today in India, Pakistan, Turkey are off limits?
b112 2 hours ago||||
There were too many successful black men

That's absolutely not what Wikipedia says. There was indeed a horrible massacre, but why do you feel the need to falsify the reasons?

rectang 1 hour ago|||
The broader theme of antagonism to Black success motivating the thoroughness of the destruction is a common observation about Tulsa.
b112 1 hour ago||
An observation? I think you mean "presumption, with no evidence". What are the facts? Wikipedia doesn't say this is the reason.

See my other reply.

Note: if the original poster had simply said what you said, providing context, I would have zero need to respond. Without the context of "the presumption is...", the statement and the context it is replying to, makes it appear as if the event was pre-mediated for years.

As opposed to a series of horrible, in the moment escalations and responses.

Again -- this event was bad enough. There is no need for presumption to be stated as fact, it can weaken such information.

notahacker 8 minutes ago|||
Here's a contemporary opinion, from the state attorney general at the time, the highest ranking person in a judicial apparatus that didn't prosecute anyone for participating in it. Looks like the fact that "the Negro" was so rich he didn't "accept the white man as his benefactor" was a pretty big deal...

The cause of this riot was not Tulsa. It might have happened anywhere for the Negro is not the same man he was thirty years ago when he was content to plod along his own road accepting the white man as his benefactor. But the years have passed and the Negro has been educated and the race papers have spread the thought of race equality.

shakna 21 minutes ago|||
Nice to see sealioning is alive and well on HN.
Fricken 2 hours ago|||
>Mobs of white residents, some of whom had been armed and appointed as deputies by city government officials, attacked black residents and their homes and businesses. The attackers burned and destroyed more than 35 square blocks of the neighborhood—at the time, one of the wealthiest black communities in the United States, colloquially known as "Black Wall Street.

What part of this paragpraph are you having a hard time with?

lukan 1 hour ago|||
Well, I am also having trouble with stating it as a fact, that the reason was they were too wealthy. Might have played a role later, but that is not clear to me from what is stated on wiki:

"The massacre began during Memorial Day weekend after 19-year-old Dick Rowland, a black shoeshiner, was accused of assaulting Sarah Page, a white 21-year-old elevator operator in the nearby Drexel Building.[25] He was arrested and rumors spread that he was to be lynched. Several hundred white residents assembled outside the courthouse, appearing to have the makings of a lynch mob. A group of approximately 50–60 black men, armed with rifles and shotguns, arrived at the jail to support the sheriff and his deputies in defending Rowland from the mob. Having seen the armed black men, some of the whites who had been at the courthouse went home for their own guns. There are conflicting reports about the exact time and nature of the incident, or incidents, that immediately precipitated the massacre.

According to the 2001 Commission, "As the black men were leaving, a white man attempted to disarm a tall, African American World War I veteran. A struggle ensued, and a shot rang out." Then, according to the sheriff, "all hell broke loose."[26] The two groups shot at each other until midnight when the group of black men was greatly outnumbered and forced to retreat to Greenwood."

b112 1 hour ago|||
Interesting. I stated zero complaints with the Wikipedia article.

I already specified:

There were too many successful black men

As my concern, because you made up this reason. How does your paste show this as the reason? Why are you ignoring the reasons in the Wikipedia article, which are clearly listed, including a timeline, and just making a reason up?

The sad part is, there is no need to embellish or make up things here. The event was series of excessive, horrible escalations, nothing Wikipedia says indicates it was planned, or that your made up reason was why. There is no need to falsify reasons.

Why are you presenting your imagined reasons as fact?

EDIT: I just don't think people get it.

Stating a presumption as fact, turns in-the-moment into premeditation. It also means something else, which needs to be considered.

By trying to tie this event to "wealthy black men", it seems as if simple, general racism wasn't the cause alone. That somehow, black people had to be wealthy to receive this sort of treatment. Here's another parallel:

"A woman entered a bar and was raped"

vs

"A woman in a short skirt entered a rough bar and was raped"

It adds a layer of "victim blaming". These black men weren't slaughtered because they were black, no, that could never happen! It was instead because they were wealthy, that's why!

By trying to tie this to the fact they were wealthy, you diminish the case over overall racism as a motivator for these sorts of act.

the_gipsy 57 minutes ago|||
It's... pretty simple.
b112 39 minutes ago||
Yes, precisely. The facts, the escalation, what happened, the report, it's all very simple and laid out at wikipedia. So why the need for fabricated reasons?

It is very simple.

uoaei 15 minutes ago||
Your refusal to interact with subtext has me guffawing. I wonder if you even recognize what you're doing.

In the history of revolution, there is never (except in elementary school) all that much weight put on the singular act which instigated the final result. The conditions in place (Jim Crow laws, Southern pride, etc.) lead up to a final moment which our monkey brains like to point to as the cause but in reality there is a simmering cultural froth which could boil over in any number of ways: it just happens that one of the ways is what's described in the Wikipedia article, but it could have started many other ways. All of our understanding about the experience of being Black in the US during that time helps to contextualize the extreme and disproportionate outburst of violence by the White population as racially motivated, serving under an ideology best described as ur-"Great Replacement Theory".

In simpler words, the destruction of Black Wall Street is not without precedent, indeed this was merely one of the more famous and complete examples of destroying the wealth that Black people enjoyed, if only briefly due to the hate of those visiting violence upon them.

cauch 21 minutes ago||||
But you are doing the same as what you are complaining about.

Racism is a complex phenomenon not limited to the simplistic view "they don't like black people". This representation is doing a disservice when some truly racist people are then justifying their actions and beliefs by saying "I cannot be racist, I'm friend with the garbage man who is black: he is a good black man, is polite to me and stay at his place. So, if I'm not racist, what I'm doing is just legitimate".

In the context of Tulsa, it is difficult to believe that the frustration of racist people seeing black people more successful than them has not contributed to the situation. It seems very natural and logical (and that's even the core of "white supremacy": it clearly states that white people deserve a better position in the social hierarchy than black people: white supremacy framing is all about how some classes are reserved to white people and not black people), and if you are claiming that it is not the case, you are the one with the burden of the proof.

While you have a point on raising that racism should not be reduced to only a class issue, you should have raised that as a precision around the discussion instead of presenting it as if racism has absolutely nothing to do with class and class sentiment.

To take back your parallel, what you do can be seen as: "A person entered a bar and was raped" (what you say) vs "A woman entered a bar and was raped". While nobody here claims that men cannot be raped, there is social phenomenon that create a gender imbalance, and it is important to not reduce the situation to "it has nothing to do with gender and the social norms around it".

In the rest of your comment, you, yourself, are doing a lot of interpretations. The fact that someone noticed that a class factor may have had an impact does not mean that they or all readers will conclude that it is the only way racism can happen (that is a huge stretch: if they know what happened at Tulsa, they very probably know a lot of other cases where the "only due to class" theory does not hold up). Same for "victim blaming": the fact that they were successful were obviously not used to excuse the massacre or pretend that somehow it was the black people's fault, the context is clearly to condemn the white racist people (and the success of the black people seems to be presented as an obvious additional factor on the racists, as it is obviously unfair to pretend that some people don't have the right to be successful).

I think the first comment was not totally perfect and would have been 100% fine if they would have simply added "class was one of the factor". But I think your reaction has way more problems and does a bigger disservice by reducing racism to a framework that can easily be instrumentalised by real racist people.

gadders 1 hour ago|||
That's the urban myth, yes.
wraptile 4 hours ago|||
At this point insider trading issue has run away so hard I don't see how it can be tamed without revolutionary frameworks. If we look at crypto then I'm not sure we want to live in a world where insider trading is normalized either so we ought to start working on these new frameworks as soon as possible but nobody seems to care.
PunchyHamster 20 minutes ago|||
Just ban gambling. That solves good part of it.

Then ENFORCE EXISTING LAWS. That solves good part of it.

Talking about any other solutions will have to wait for govt that's not crooked. It doesn't need revolution, it needs to not have criminals at helm

nandomrumber 4 hours ago||||
> without revolutionary frameworks

I’d argue that the level of corruption we’re seeing, not just in the USA but all over the Western world, hasn’t risen to a level that warrants revolutionary action.

> nobody seems to care

And it would seem that the masses tend to agree.

We are much much better off tolerating this level of corruption than we would be attempting a revolution.

Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how fat the fat cats are so long as the general population’s standard of living doesn't go backwards too far too fast.

psychoslave 1 hour ago|||
>We are much much better off tolerating this level of corruption than we would be attempting a revolution.

There is no we to prevent any revolution occurring once corruption or "mere" wealth distribution unsustainable discrepancy are passing some thresholds, after which it simply will feedbackloop exponentially.

Pauperization that allows some party to have chip exploitable labour too frightened to have strong collective claims is also building the social structure of bloody revolution as masses feel like rushing into brutality is the only viable left option.

hfhc6s 20 minutes ago||
Thresholds by themselves dont auto trigger some state change because the state is aware of them too.

The police and intelligence are well paid to keep an eye on all kinds of signals. Unless the situation reaches a point they cant pay the cops any voilence will be shut down fast, because over time they have become quite good at it. Just like we have become good at running gigantic boilers without them exploding. Even poor states are good at it. Because anyone running a farm, factory, depending on banks, telcos, ports, power grid etc are all very dependent on the state to keep the lights on. More efficent they get the more dependent they are on external structures staying in tact to stay afloat.

The world today is a much more complicated place, full of interdependcies(as covid showed us), than what it was when revolutions were seen as the solution to anything.

So Organizing and Voting still remains the easier way to cause change as tempratures rise. Thats the control and feedback mech.

ashtonshears 3 hours ago||||
Sad that you have given up
Pay08 1 hour ago|||
Sad that you want a return to the Reign of Terror.
vasco 3 hours ago|||
[flagged]
goreeStef 3 hours ago||
[flagged]
andrepd 57 minutes ago||||
> Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how fat the fat cats are so long as the general population’s standard of living doesn't go backwards too far too fast.

Worker's compensation in real terms has been almost flat for the last 50 years, 50 years which have seen the largest increase in productivity in recorded history by far. I'm surprised this is still not enough to you.

eptcyka 3 hours ago||||
So a slow decline is OK?

Nah, life would be better if a cleptocrat couldn’t find his way into power.

rjzzleep 1 hour ago|||
It was slow for 30 years, the last couple of years have been insane.

I'd say that either way the population will not rebel. If the government is smart they'll just pay for the populations Netflix, burgers and beer. It's enough to keep people passive.

lazide 2 hours ago|||
Slow?
cucumber3732842 7 minutes ago||||
>Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how fat the fat cats are so long as the general population’s standard of living doesn't go backwards too far too fast.

Exactly.

I would happily let Elon Musk get 5 richer if it means I got 1 richer.

What I don't want is a bunch of doctors and lawyers and FAANG PMs getting 2 richer while I get -.5 richer while simultaneously trying to shape society such that I have to expend resources in a way that makes my -.5 feels more like a -3. And this latter example is pretty much how the people on the shitty side of the K graph view the people on the good side of it.

close04 51 minutes ago||||
> We are much much better off tolerating this level of corruption than we would be attempting a revolution.

We, today, are better not attempting revolution because revolutions are painful. But we are also on a downward slope which will eventually reach below a threshold where 2 things happen: their* life will be much worse off than any revolution, but also they will no longer be able to mount a revolution.

I've lived through a violent revolution. Not knowing what's happening, not knowing what tomorrow brings, while getting shot at are all terrifying. I can genuinely say that most of what came after was better. A few paid a high price for the several generations that came after to mostly have it better.

I am not advocating revolution, just doing what it takes to change course. Even voting appropriately could do it.

*I say they because it might not happen in our lifetime. But we are selling our kids' futures for our current comfort. They'll be the ones really paying our debt.

fzeroracer 3 hours ago||||
> Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how fat the fat cats are so long as the general population’s standard of living doesn't go backwards too far too fast.

Well, given that people are behaving more and more violently towards said fat cats I think it's clear we're starting to reach a breaking point and people are caring. It wasn't too long ago that I saw people cheering on LinkedIn when that healthcare CEO got got, so if people are willing to put their professional profiles at risk you have to imagine it's far worse behind closed doors.

Personally I really dislike living in interesting times and greatly prefer advocating against corruption rather than letting things slide until they get a lot worse.

chaostheory 3 hours ago||||
That’s until food and energy price increases become unbearable for the masses. While the first test is already here with gas prices, we’ll have the second test soon in the form of 50% price increases on food in developed Western countries.
nandomrumber 3 hours ago||
Where is the evidence that petrol prices are unbearable, by the metric you’re proposing.
kdheiwns 1 hour ago||
In some places, like the Philippines, gas/fuel prices are up 70-100% since the start of the Special Four Day Operation in Iran. It's easy to say "who cares doesn't affect me", which sounds nice. But the Philippines is a major manufacturing hub of stuff that keeps life artificially cheap in the west. The rest of SE Asia is undergoing similar rapid price increases. Thailand, Malaysia, etc make lots of electronic components which will be facing a huge squeeze very soon.

The reason for those price increases is those countries don't have massive fuel stockpiles. The west does have big stockpiles, and they're artificially suppressing the price of fuel by releasing those stockpiles and hoping the special operation is over before their stockpiles run out. Because if prices shoot up now, people will realize just how truly disastrous it all is and actual consequences for various governments may be had, so the only option is to kick the can down the road and hope it somehow resolves itself.

Asia is in a particularly bad situation, because even for countries that do have stockpiles, they get basically all of their oil from Iran, the UAE, east coast of Saudi Arabia, etc. Now they have no oil. America can pretend it's a 4D chess move and now those countries will buy American oil and make their economy great again. But the thing is America isn't selling any additional oil to Asia. But America is 100% dependent on cheap things made in Asia, things that are built with plastic made from middle eastern oil and powered by electricity generated from middle eastern oil and shipped on boats running on middle eastern oil. All these things take months to show any effects to Americans and Europeans, so until then, it's just a game of burying heads in the sand until the situation suddenly explodes.

bonesss 1 hour ago||
For a lot of us this perturbation hurts portfolios, tightens the belt, and hurts business investments… But oil and food production are tied together in numerous ways.

We’re looking at fuel shocks, downstream the agricultural, fertilizer, and food shocks are gonna cost untold anguish and many lives. Farmer suicides and famines, as the start of a destabilizing wave.

1) for the second time in my adult life I have to ask aloud how shit Dick Cheney was saying on 60 minutes ca 1993 escaped the notice of the entire US military and its commander in chief

2) the obvious lack of a post-strike plan and confusion about how mountains and waterways work make it hard to pin down how elementary and remedial the eff-ups here really are, so incompetent and indifferent

lava_pidgeon 3 hours ago|||
How is inside training outside of US s thing? Please give dpurces
jorvi 1 hour ago||||
Interestingly enough, trading and gambling are things that a blockchain is a pretty good fit for. There is a public ledger and trace of ownership for the trades / lays. And depending on how it is set up, payout is autonomous, as long as no one party controls the network.
grey-area 1 hour ago||||
It can be solved by enforcing the laws already on the books. Insider trading is illegal.

If the laws are not enforced or selectively enforced you live in a nascent fascist state, not a democracy, what you need is a return to the rule of law, not the abolition of it.

ImHereToVote 4 hours ago||||
Speculation has historically been solved by a workers vanguard party.
sixsevenrot 2 hours ago|||
You're wrong.

It's just that the problem is not the trading or betting side, the problem is the information producing side.

E.g. imagine he placed a bet that Maduro would get shot in is left eye and die.

Same goes for the congress. Them making money is by far a smaller issue compared to the havoc they can cause trying to make a few bucks on their crazy bets.

baobabKoodaa 9 minutes ago|||
Which specific senate and congress members made Polymarket bets on the Maduro raid? Oh, none of them? So it's not "the exact same", then, is it?
dan-robertson 1 hour ago|||
I actually don’t know the details of the specific crimes. Eg if you’re a soldier and you post on Facebook that you’re about to go on a raid to depose a head of state, that’s presumably a secrecy violation you would be punished severely for. The insider trading can be like this too in that you’re improperly using the information you are privy to due to your being an insider. If you’re a congressperson and you tweet that the government is about to do such a raid, I don’t know what the legality of that is – perhaps you have some kind of privilege to reveal these things and any censure must happen politically (eg impeachment, losing elections, etc) rather than legally. I don’t know what the rules for insider trading would then be – legislators are not insiders in the way that soldiers are.

Ignoring the moral argument, it isn’t all that clear to me that this would actually be a crime for a legislator under US securities law. It may be that new laws would be required to be able to punish legislators for this kind of behaviour.

a_victorp 26 minutes ago||
He was charged with "unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of non-public government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.". Supposedly, unlawful use of government confidential information could also be applied to legislative and other people in the government
pbkompasz 2 hours ago|||
I like how when people talk about corruption they think about Nancy Pelosi or some other congressman/senator making couple million $ on the stock market over their entire careers due to insider trading. Just last week Trump made a bet of around $1B on the price of oil going down before doing a fake announcement.
markus_zhang 1 hour ago|||
I think corruption happens long ago before Trump. I’m thinking more on the inequality of wealth and how a smaller percentage of people takes a bigger share of the wealth since I don’t know when. Trump is in fact the symptom of that corruption and part of the reason people elected him. But he definitely makes it worse especially in his second presidency.

Nowadays super riches run the show and even the illusion of democracy is gone.

Another thought: many political elites are probably waiting and pushing for Trump to fail to take over. It is us who are going to suffer.

andrepd 53 minutes ago||||
I too wonder why "Nancy Pelosi" has become basically synonymous with Congress insider trading when she's not even close to the top of the list among congresspeople.
xienze 1 hour ago||||
> I like how when people talk about corruption they think about Nancy Pelosi or some other congressman/senator making couple million $ on the stock market over their entire careers due to insider trading

So, two things. First, she's made quite a bit more than a few million dollars. Second, she's been an example of being a "suspiciously good trader" for years and years and years. Has anything happened to her? Republicans talk about her and do nothing about it. Democrats say it's a conspiracy theory. The behavior has quite clearly been normalized.

lazide 2 hours ago|||
Nancy pelosi’s net worth is around a quarter billion dollars, most of it attributable to insider trading.
triage8004 4 hours ago|||
It's not legal for him, but it is for them.
nandomrumber 4 hours ago||
That’s not it.

It’s that there isn’t an Attorney General who would dare attempt raise a case against the hand that feeds them.

pjio 2 hours ago||
In theory the separation of powers should prevent this.
pjc50 2 hours ago||
What does separation of powers mean when both houses, the president, and the Supreme Court are controlled by the same party?

At the moment the US is just Big Poland (PiS era).

vagab0nd 3 hours ago|||
Think about it. He's stealing from the US military. The politicians are stealing from you. Who's laughing now?
cpncrunch 1 hour ago|||
Any evidence of that?
chii 4 hours ago|||
Palpatine: I am the senate!
Lionga 2 hours ago|||
Its a big club and you ain't in it.
breppp 33 minutes ago|||
Some, and probably very few.

When the people feel everyone is corrupt without any evidence then the next step is getting actual corrupt leaders like Trump's government and soldiers like this that feel corruption is standard behavior

ekjhgkejhgk 57 minutes ago||
Yes. This is Trump signaling that insider trading is for actual insiders only.
sigmar 10 hours ago|||
Since this is relevant to many HN comments, copy-pasted the charges from the pdf indictment in the linked page:

Count 1 - Unlawful Use of Confidential Government Information for Personal Gain

Count 2 - Theft of Nonpublic Government Information

Count 3 - Commodities Fraud

Count 4 - Wire Fraud

Count 5 - Engaging in a Monetary Transaction in Property Derived from Specified Unlawful Activity

jcgrillo 9 hours ago|
It's interesting they don't think they can get him for leaking classified information. To me that seems like the biggest issue--I mean sure, it's bad he made money on it, but it would have been really bad if he'd gotten someone killed by blabbing to the internet.
enoint 8 hours ago||
If that happened, could they retroactively classify it?
int32_64 9 hours ago|||
It seems like it would be highly demoralizing to US soldiers that they are prosecuted for betting on the outcomes of the battles they are risking their lives for but those insider trading commanding them aren't.
herewulf 9 hours ago||
Imagine doing an easy tour in your air conditioned Kuwaiti logistics office and then getting blown to bits by a ballistic missile because no one bothered to tell you about the war that was being initiated which would cause such missiles in retaliation. Yeah, that's demoralizing too.
int32_64 8 hours ago|||
There will be derivative contracts of prediction markets to predict if an insider is indicted for betting on a specific prediction.

And those prediction markets will have derivative markets to predict if an insider in the prosecutor's office bet on that contract.

And those prediction markets will have derivative markets to predict if a special prosecutor will prosecute the other prosecutor.

And those prediction markets will have derivative markets to predict if an insider in the special prosecutor's office bet on the other contract.

(additional derivative markets will exist up to the divine wrath of god).

SparkyMcUnicorn 9 hours ago|||
They should have kept an eye on the prediction markets.
enoint 8 hours ago||
Or, your brigade’s master sergeant needs the invasion to hit on the 28th rather than Mar 1st.
zeptonix 2 hours ago||
This looks like the wallet lol - https://polyintel.io/trader/0x31a56e9e690c621ed21de08cb559e9...
pavlov 3 hours ago||
What’s the point of prediction markets?

They are just ordinary gambling unless you allow insider trading and manipulation, because that’s the only way the market can acquire and represent novel useful information.

But if you allow those things, you run into a host of well-documented problems which are the reason why those things are forbidden in other markets.

As it stands, prediction markets seem like a tech-aligned rebranding of age-old rigged gambling products.

energy123 1 hour ago||
> They are just ordinary gambling unless you allow insider trading and manipulation, because that’s the only way the market can acquire and represent novel useful information.

Representing only public information without agenda is useful in itself. Words are cheap, and which words you get to see and which words you don't get to see is according to some non-truth incentive. Prediction markets say "you get to make money if you know what the truth actually is". Media says "you get to make money if you entertain people".

It's unfortunate there's also significant negative side effects to financialized prediction markets. I'm more favorable to non-financial prediction markets like Manifold, which say "you get to have social status if you know what the truth is". Seems as though that's the right balance, although you could see how such non-financial prediction markets can be more easily defeated by dedicated non-truth actors if it became prominent in the public conversation.

haritha-j 2 hours ago|||
In theory no, because it provides financial incentive to perform a comprehensive analysis of available data or conduct thorough investigations. In practice, yep.
d--b 2 hours ago||
The original point is to use crowd wisdom. Crowds seem better than single individuals to predict outcomes of certain types of events.

I think this is visible in sports betting markets. Unless all games are rigged, games outcomes are fairly random events, and betting markets are pretty good at assessing the probabilities of a team winning. Same thing happens in finance. Option markets are really good at assessing the probabilities of asset movements.

The thing though is that these markets are only good in predicting recurring events like game results or financial asset movements. They are good _overall_, as in, if you take 100,000 sport games, the bettings odds are going to be overall in line with what actually happens.

Hence some people deduced that crowds with skin in the game were wise in predicting random stuff. And what happened then is that some of them thought this kind of predictive power could apply to any kind of event, and then predictive markets were created, with the idea that crowds could magically come up with odds for anything, and that would be fairly correct. But what works for recurring events don't hold for single events like Maduro's capture or the end of the Iran war. So the odds in these market is only the result of influence and insider information.

The result is that the odds are generally completely off, unless there is insider information. That's kind of what happened in the 2008 financial crisis. The bets there were on loans defaulting. These events are rare enough that it's impossible to assess their probability easily. And so banks relied on rating agencies (influence), to price the odds of these events happening. Rating agencies were wrong on a lot of these bets, meaning all the bets were placed at very very wrong prices, resulting in the crisis we saw.

The weird outcome of it all, is that those prediction markets have become insider information detectors. That's how they caught the guy. Whoever is winning big on these markets is necessarily cheating.

But I guess the main takeaway for me is that society is in such a state that a lot of people actually bet big on these things. Probably a combination of being fed dreams of fortune since childhood and the american dream not delivering. It's all very sad.

mrtksn 10 hours ago|||
Are prediction markets regulated? Is this about breaking the laws regarding prediction markets or is this about leaking classified information? I skimmed but not sure still.

Someone more cynical can say that this is about protecting Thiel’s investment(if people think it’s rigged may stop playing) or making sure that only big G makes money with classified information.

akudha 9 hours ago||
These two videos might be of some help

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A654vzQTGbQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZN4njIQcSR4

garciasn 10 hours ago||
From the article:

unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.

mrtksn 10 hours ago||
So what law is broken exactly? Will an engineer with classified information on F-35 use that for fixing his car be also prosecuted? I guess no, so is this about leaking the Maduro operation?

Insider trading and outcome manipulation seems to be the norm on unregulated markets anyway. Whats the crime?

mlazos 9 hours ago||
By the letter of the law the guy fixing his car should be prosecuted, but like nobody is going to know and it’s not going to happen. In this case it’s pretty obvious the law was broken.
Luker88 1 hour ago||
Solving insider trading is fundamentally impossible due to the burden of proof.

However I am convinced that forcing people to keep their shares for even just one week would stabilize the markets enough to make insider trading much more obvious (and easier to prosecute). It would also force a shift on perspectives more on the long run, instead of focusing on immediate speculation.

This was a prediction market, not a proper market trade, and I am glad I live in a country where that is outlawed. This is untaxed, unregulated gambling.

JonChesterfield 1 hour ago|
It would do nothing. You'd get an increase in derivatives volume with the same underlying effect.
chaboud 3 hours ago||
I was under the impression that insider influence was the point of these systems? Want something to happen? Bet a lot of money that it won't, pulling the market forces towards the action you want.

It goes from "taking out a hit" to "betting that someone will live to next Thursday". It's such an obvious outcome of these systems that I was operating on the assumption that it was the actual point.

So maybe the thing this guy did wrong was to be so face-palmingly pants-on-head obvious about it that they had to shut it down?

shusaku 44 minutes ago|
“Super markets trade money for food. An obvious outcome is that someone without money will shoot the employees to steal food. Therefore the purpose of supermarkets is to facilitate murder”
k310 11 hours ago|||
Nabbing the little guy for show, very much like Henry Hill taking one for Paulie and the gang. The same gang that robbed the Lufthansa vault at JFK Airport, stealing six million dollars in cash and jewelry.

When the history of this administration is written, provided that history itself has not been completely rewritten a la "1984," Goodfellas will be required reading/watching.

And the highly profitable daily mood-induced oil price bets will just be forgotten.

Wilhoit's Law:

Wilhoit's law.

“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”

https://pylimitics.net/wilhoits-law/

jandrewrogers 9 hours ago||
> nabbing the little guy

Politics aside, he isn't a "little guy". He apparently holds the rank of master sergeant. That's a senior battalion-level role and somewhat political.

This isn't some random E-4 getting dragged.

herewulf 9 hours ago|||
This might burst some bubbles but this is absolutely a little guy because anything below a field grade officer (or the CSM sidekick below brigade) is a little guy and a battalion is actually quite low on the food chain.

Yes, there are some hard working NCOs and junior Os out there that make shit happen, but they are not the decision makers and make for great fall guys when shit hits the fan.

9x39 9 hours ago||||
Compared to a member of US Congress, or the senior executive branch, or the CEO class, they’re still nobody and the “little guy”.

Not that it’s defensible behavior.

dmschulman 9 hours ago||||
I read this as "why are they going after a soldier who made $30k when they could be going after guys who made seven figures off of expertly timed trades on going to war with Iran"
Aurornis 9 hours ago||
He profited $400K.

Pursuing this case doesn’t mean they’re excluding other cases. If you read the article this case was very clear because he made amateur moves and didn’t conceal his identity at all.

This was an easy nab. All leaks should be pursued regardless of who did it.

jghn 9 hours ago|||
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that Trump's insiders own't be investigated
Forgeties79 9 hours ago|||
There is zero chance this escalates further off this guy.
spydum 8 hours ago|||
You could place a prediction bet probably.
defrost 9 hours ago|||
Careful, you'll have Ka$hPatel wondering who to throw under a bus just for the giggles, the p0wn, and the extra $100 for his stripper lounge charity.
DASD 8 hours ago||||
If he was "behind the fence", at most he would be a team sergeant or maybe even assistant team sergeant. Talking 4-6 members max.
Forgeties79 9 hours ago|||
A master sergeant is not remotely significant in the world of politics.
janalsncm 9 hours ago|||
One soldier being arrested does not prevent others from being arrested. If anything, it sets a precedent.

Yesterday, people could justifiably say that betting on polymarket had essentially no consequences.

Today, we learned there can be consequences.

If in a year’s time this is the only person to ever be charged, that’s a different story.

nickburns 10 hours ago|||
They don't call 'em cannon fodder for nothin'!
gabagool 10 hours ago|||
Per Goodfellas, "Paulie and the gang" ended up in jail while Henry Hill received witness protection. So, it wasn't just for show
Aurornis 9 hours ago|||
As other comments said, this wasn’t exactly a “little guy” in rank.

He also made it all very obvious and traceable for them through the email addresses he used. From the report it doesn’t appear that he made any effort to conceal his identity or hide his tracks until afterward, by which time it was too late.

ElProlactin 9 hours ago||
Well, if people in Congress, the Supreme Court, the administration, etc. don't have to conceal their "activities", why should this guy?

He wasn't a "little guy" but apparently his only mistake was not being high enough.

Aurornis 9 hours ago|||
I don’t know why people are trying to defend this guy. We should be upset when anyone tries to use confidential information for personal gain. It’s also a security risk if anyone is incentivized to place bets based on confidential info.

I know you’re trying to make a separate point about Congress, but it’s silly to try to turn this into a class warfare thing. Congress didn’t even have this information at the time.

ElProlactin 8 hours ago|||
Nobody is defending this person.

> ...but it’s silly to try to turn this into a class warfare thing.

You can ignore the class warfare but the class warfare isn't ignoring you/your country.

jrumbut 8 hours ago|||
I haven't seen anyone defend his conduct, but it is natural to discuss his political clout because of this line on TFA:

> Today’s announcement makes clear no one is above the law

What others are saying, IIUC, is that no reasonable person believes an enlisted soldier (even a senior one) is above the law and that in fact there is a history of them being used as fall guys or scapegoats for people who do enjoy protection on the basis of their social class or government position.

Without this specific statement from the FBI director, then it would be "soldier gets caught doing bad thing" and the other part would be off topic. But the article itself introduces the idea of class and impunity.

janalsncm 9 hours ago|||
Because the path to Rule of Law is not deleting/refusing to enforce all laws.

Rule of Law means no one is above the law. In practice this is an aspiration (in the U.S. and everywhere else) but giving up on that isn’t going to make the world better.

bluegatty 9 hours ago|||
Everything about this statement is completely wrong.

False, conspiratorial, dogmatic, juvenile.

The arrest and indictment of someone for betting on Polymarket - which has not yet been tested in court - is going to give huge attention and precedence to the likely illegal activities of some of Polymarket shenanigans coming out of the white house.

Edit: if this was political, it would be pushed in the other direction. This is the NY DOJ doing their jobs.

NikolaNovak 9 hours ago|||
...

I don't think this is going to be Hacker News fascinating discourse, but the current USA administration is so openly, brazenly, continuously, gleefully corrupt; continuously fire people with ethics and competence and bring in the in-group of equally corrupt ; and have continuously been rewarded for that behaviour; that I feel the OP is merely observationally factual.

bluegatty 9 hours ago|||
The current Executive is 'brazenly criminal', yes, but there is nothing much 'factual; about the OP's comment.

None of this remotely has to do with 'Conservatism', it's certainly not ideological, and it's likely not political either.

This indictment is going to cause a massive headache for White House as they have likely been involved in 'insider trading'.

This is actually regular Justice, finally seeing some movement, to cynically characterize it as otherwise, totally against common sense (aka it's bad for the WH) is just unsound. I think it demonstrates the kind of bubble a lot of people live in, which is maybe understandable in the current climate, where horrible behaviours have gone unpunished. But still. This is the story of a state doj doing their job.

behringer 9 hours ago|||
What? Military trials are not necessarily public.
bluegatty 9 hours ago|||
It's by the Southern District of NY and the case will get national attention.

This is a hugely negative thing for the Administration, as District Attorneys, SEC staff, etc. are going to be actively seeking how this could parlay into investigations and indictments of the people in the White House making Polymarket and other speculative bets just before government actions.

There are 100's lawyers reading that right now getting inspired on how they can take action to turn their investigative powers onto whoever those actors are aka family members or associates of those in the White House / Cabinet.

An investigation could be done at the State Level, away from the control of the DoJ, and, if it yields evidence, it wouldn't have to even make it's way through the courts in order to be political destructive.

The suggestion by the OP this has anything to do with ideology or the ruling power throwing one under the bus is ridiculous. Note that the ruling regime isn't above such a thing, but that's not what is happening here because it definitely does not serve their interests - it's the total opposite.

This could turn into a political nightmare that crashes the party.

Edit: if we want to be 'hopefully cynical' - recognize that this could absolutely be the vector that takes the man down, or even many of them. Imagine how many WH, Cabinet Members, family members could get investigated for this and under purvue of state investigators where the investigation can't get shut down.

bonsai_spool 9 hours ago|||
This was charged by DOJ not under a military tribunal
akudha 9 hours ago|||
When the history of this administration is written

I often think about how much we can trust history 20-30 years from now. It is hard to trust history from hundreds of years ago, either because it was written by victors or because there just isn't enough material in the first place. I suppose we have the opposite problem now (and in the future) - too much noise and junk, whole bunch of it generated by AI slop - where does one even start?

JohnTHaller 9 hours ago|||
For everyone saying this isn't some little guy... compared to the administration which is engaging in the same thing, it's a little guy designed to be a distraction.
busterarm 10 hours ago|||
Authority-wise, a MSG in the army isn't exactly a little guy either. That's quite a senior role. In their battalion they likely head either operations, intelligence or supply.

This isn't joe schlub making side bets here. This is a senior late-career enlisted in an extremely sensitive position violating all of their trust and authority to cash out big.

herewulf 9 hours ago||
That MSG works for a Captain or a Lieutenant. If said MSG is good, there might be a future of advising a commanding officer on uniforms and length of grass at increasingly higher echelons. The rank is not newsworthy.
RhysU 10 hours ago|||
Wilholt's essay is a nice one. But it amounts to defining the opposition in a way that's easy to tear apart followed by tearing it apart. It's a cute trick but isn't much of a basis for serious discussion.

Watch: Wilholt's essay consists of exactly and only one indefensible, rhetorical sleight of hand. Consequently, no one can honestly defend it. Attempts to do so are undeserving of serious scrutiny.

After tearing down a strawman, he claims high ground:

> The law cannot protect anyone unless it binds everyone; and it cannot bind anyone unless it protects everyone.

But you'll get a fair bit of support for Wilholt's so-called anti-conservative principle from a fair number of prominent conservative thinkers.

zaptheimpaler 10 hours ago||
The modern US conservative party really does seem to believe only in that one principle and nothing else. They will pardon actual sex traffickers like Andrew Tate and worse as long as they're on their side. They will defend any action at all by Trump, no matter how vile or illegal or stupid or wrong. It's not a sleight of hand if its true.
RhysU 10 hours ago||
Go read a few months worth of the National Review.

Many prominent conservative thinkers are not particularly big fans of Trump. They like portions of his initiatives and policies but not him as a standard bearer, because he does dumb, ill-principled stuff at odds with conservatism.

Peggy Noonan of the WSJ can't write two sentences without letting you know how much she disdains Trump, e.g.

zaptheimpaler 10 hours ago||
I guess I should clarify it to the modern US conservative party. I know there are a few dissenters even there, but 95% of them vote the way he wants and of course we could have impeached Trump and many cabinet officials long ago if they voted that way. They unquestionably enable this administration. I think its fair to say they represent the conservatives broadly, certainly they are the people the nations conservative citizens elected and continue to support.
paulpauper 10 hours ago|||
I made a similar argument and was downvoted. Yeah, the well-connected pay a fine when caught. This guy's mistake was not knowing he did not belong to that club. He amounted to no more than a fall guy.
jongjong 9 hours ago|||
There seems to be a pattern that if someone who was not pre-selected by some elites ends up making their own money (I.e. real 'self-made') they are swiftly attacked by the system. On the other hand, look at Nancy Pelosi; she didn't get into any trouble.

Are people allowed to be self-made anymore?

For me personally, after years of planning and hard work, I once managed to secure myself about $40k of passive income from a blockchain in crypto; this lasted a few years but eventually the founders suspiciously abandoned the entire tech stack (for no reason) and switched to Ethereum; this destroyed the opportunity for me; literally lost that stream entirely. Now, recently, I was able to re-establish a passive income stream of about $10k per year from a non-crypto source; this is from an opportunity I took over 10 years ago... I'm worried about that being taken away somehow.

george916a 8 hours ago||
Oh, and let’s not forget the politicians like Pelosi, the Clintons and many other top Democratic Party politicians, repeatedly engaged in insider trading of stocks, often times using classified information, for multi million dollars profits. Almost never investigated. Practically never convicted.
markus_zhang 8 hours ago|
We all know there were suspicious large bets on the stock and oil markets during the war.

If small potatoes are getting sued while the sharks swim freely. I don’t know what’s going to happen to the moral.

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