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Posted by zdw 2 days ago

Eka’s robotic claw feels like we're approaching a ChatGPT moment(www.wired.com)
https://archive.is/Wro1e
125 points | 161 comments
Animats 7 hours ago|
We'll know this works when it starts replacing Amazon pickers in quantity. Amazon has been trying to automate that for years, with many demos and contests. So far, nothing can quickly and reliably take random products out of one bin and put them in another. Amazon's robotic systems move larger containers and shelves of bins around, but do not yet pick individual items.
dmix 6 hours ago||
There's a lot more money being thrown at this than in previous years. Seems to be growing beyond corporate R&D labs and university research towards startups trying to productize it.

I've seen multiple articles about robotic claws. This one made the rounds previously https://www.firgelli.com/pages/humanoid-robot-actuators

sigmoid10 37 minutes ago||
>A humanoid robot takes roughly 5,000 steps per hour. Each step sends a shock of 2–3× body weight through the leg actuators—forces that would be fine occasionally, but become destructive when repeated thousands of times without pause.

As someone who comes from the world of running and knee problems, I feel this misses the issue. Normal walking should not produce these kinds of shocks unless your gait is really jumpy or otherwise screwed up. You only start to see these forces when running and that's where technique becomes important even for humans if you want to prevent damage to your joints over long distances. But at least for walking I suppose that a fully articulated humanoid with all the degrees of freedom of human gait should be mostly a control problem, not a mechanical engineering one.

p-e-w 6 hours ago||
> We'll know this works when it starts replacing Amazon pickers in quantity.

That doesn’t follow. There are plenty of tasks that can be fully and reliably automated but aren’t, for the simple reason that human labor is dirt cheap compared to advanced robotics.

momojo 44 minutes ago|||
I disagreed, then re-read your post, then re-read the OP, and now I've come full circle to apologize; I think you make a fair point.

I work at a biotech. We spent who knows how much time and money trying to develop a 'lab technician bot' to automate one of our critical assays. Turns out, a 6-figure machine still isn't as economical as my coworker Y, one of the veteran lab-technicians. Sure she takes the occasional sick day but even at our volume (and we do industrial-level, multiple clients batched into a single assay pass) it won't be economical to replace her for a very long time (if we even reach that scale).

somewhatgoated 6 hours ago||||
What is the point of humanoid “general” robots then? We already have pretty reliable ways to make and train humans. Humans are cheaper and better than robots. I could imagine robots for some specialised tasks where you don’t want to use a human for eg security reasons, but you don’t need general purpose robots for that
semi-extrinsic 2 minutes ago|||
Robots are good at things that are "simple" but where human precision is not good enough, or where people would get bored and make mistakes.
nemomarx 4 hours ago||||
If robots ever do get cheaper than humans for it, though?
shermantanktop 3 hours ago||
In natural ecosystems, nobody beats the apex predator directly, and nobody beats the hyperspecialized niche critter at their own game. The new species has some advantage that’s different than what is there.

If a humanoid robot is slower dumber human that is expensive, requires power, can’t get wet, falls over, and doesn’t understand stairs. Is not sleeping and being radiation tolerant enough of an advantage to be worth it?

Dylan16807 2 hours ago|||
The nature comparison doesn't work on a fundamental level because you're only getting a fraction of the human's power based on how much they're happy to sell.
pear01 3 hours ago|||
You forgot a big one in your description of the hypothetical advantages:

No free will

cindyllm 3 hours ago||
[dead]
bobthepanda 3 hours ago|||
Robots can be optimized for tasks and if they are, their benefits are greater. When cars replaced the horse, it was because they didn’t poop, and because a car designed only for transport would not suddenly have a heart attack and stop working.
tintor 2 minutes ago|||
Cars can stop working suddenly in many many ways, for many reasons.
tomtomistaken 48 minutes ago|||
Funnily enough, cars have their own way of pooping and dying of a heart attack.
chihuahua 5 hours ago|||
A friend who works at Amazon made the same point: "We don't really need robots in the FCs urgently [other than the Kivas], because it turns out you can just pay people $17/hour"
gizajob 30 minutes ago|||
I was thinking this week that AI token costs are probably going to get so expensive soon that bright spark CEOs are going to realise “why am I paying for such expensive coding agents when I can pay people from the third world to code!?!” and announce outsourcing like it’s some kind of stunning and innovative revelation.
nine_k 5 hours ago||||
That's the point of the test condition. When running a robot becomes more economical than paying full-scale humans $17/h, something important about robot abilities will have changed.
WillAdams 4 hours ago||
I dunno, I worked in an Amazon Warehouse for a year part-time (and a couple of weeks full-time when in-between jobs) --- on one occasion, I pulled up to a bin full of non-descript cardboard boxes near where a group of trainees were working their way through, grabbed one box, spun it around for the six-sided box check, scanned it, confirming it was the right one, and before I could move on to my next pick, a trainee asked, "How did you know that was the right box?", which required a several minute explanation of how the item description and the slight differentiations of the boxes led to that conclusion.

The big win would be training the folks doing stowing to not create such situations and to put markedly different things in each rainbow bin.

pear01 3 hours ago|||
This would be a more convincing take if reasoning LLMs didn't already exist. Given the growth in capability over the last few years alone nothing about your description "several minute explanation of how the item description and the slight differentiations of the boxes" seems beyond an artificial intelligence to solve by the time humanoid robots would be ready to physically traverse a warehouse.

Your last point is also interesting given perhaps a robot is more amenable to such instruction, thus creating cascading savings. Each human has to be trained, and could be individually a failure. Robot can essentially copy its "brain" to its others.

Or likely more accurately, download the latest brain trained from all the robot's aggregate experiences from the amazon hivemind hq

ghshephard 1 hour ago|||
The "Markedly Different things" in each bin was a big Amazon Warehouse advance in warehousing. Traditionally - things that were "alike" were put on shelves/bins - but (according to Amazon) it was far more efficient for pickers (at least back in the day - may have changed since then) to have random things on shelves located near each other to allow for equal access to popular items by pickers.
Animats 3 hours ago|||
Mechanical picking has been too slow. It's not a problem with the robot mechanics. Here's 300 picks/minute from 2012.[1] The parts are all the same, so the vision problem is simple.

But picking arbitrary objects from fulfillment bins is still running at a few picks per minute.[2] As the speed picks up, humans become less necessary.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RKXVefE98w

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2X4CU3jmw-g

NalNezumi 6 hours ago||
I have high respect of Tuomas and his work around SAC for RL in robotics.

But this is slightly unconvincing, most because of the author

>They spend thousands of computer hours practicing movements inside simulated worlds and inventing their own solutions.

This is exactly what almost every other picking startups have been doing for the last couple of years.

I can think of at least a dozens, some even making their custom gripper hardware. It still relies on sim2real transfer and then there's a bottleneck of things such as representing deformable objects. And that's still just scratching the surface of it.

I can definitely see that they have the right team. But the claim made by this author is far removed from the actual demo he describes. I've seen same demo for years, last one was in CoRL by Google (Gemini) and even then you could see clever robotics guy (some Boston dynamics engineers) that came by and gave it a clever task it failed on.

theteapot 2 hours ago||
> But the claim made by this author is far removed from the actual demo he describes. I've seen same demo for years

The article describes multiple demos. Are you referring to the chicken nuggets one? That sounded pretty impressive to me. Is there publicly available videos of this?

Joel_Mckay 2 hours ago||
Universal Robots ( https://www.universal-robots.com/ ) force sensing collaborative platforms were very advanced years ago, but like most bot firms small market demand made retail consumer pricing unsustainable.

>I can think of at least a dozens, some even making their custom gripper hardware.

The simplest solution sometimes is more robust in practice:

https://news.uchicago.edu/story/balloon-filled-ground-coffee...

Too many edge-case failure modes in an uncontrolled setting. Building platforms that could seriously harm people by just falling over is an inherent design risk. =3

arjie 6 hours ago||
All my life I've loved robotics, so I was very eager to get things in the house, but my primary problem with humanoid robots is that they're very different from my Roomba-successor Dreame vacuum in a crucial way: they can fall. The Dreame can occupy the same space as my toddler, but the more industrial grade robotics machines cannot. The Unitree Sun Wukong is unbelievably impressive and I could completely imagine a world where it replaces humans in existing dangerous spaces without requiring the spaces themselves retooled. But in my house, perhaps the future will be like what these guys say and I'll have an Eka Claw on my kitchen counter and another by my washing machine, and so on.

In the classic example of old-guy-gets-surprised-by-new-tech, I bet people will find a way around the problem: but the thing has to be powerful to be fast, and if it's powerful it can hurt.

Who can tell. It was just prior to the pandemic when I was showing my wife talktotransformer.com and thinking about how much needs to be solved before it's useful. More fool am I HAHA!

stein1946 3 hours ago||
All I want is a machine that I can drop ingredients in it and it can give me a delicious meal

And another that I can just drop all my clothes in, and have them washed and ironed for me.

Doesn't have to be a humanoid.

tikotus 51 minutes ago||
If you like smoothies, I think I've got something for you!
ehnto 53 minutes ago|||
I think the focus has been on lowering mass so that they can move quickly with low kinetic energy.
dmix 6 hours ago|||
> in a crucial way: they can fall.

The question is do they fall and can't get back up

The main issue is how heavy duty they are, because they operate on lithium batteries you can't make them too heavy otherwise it burns battery. So these humanoid robots durability will be closely aligned with innovation in lithium battery tech, or having larger and expensive robots with lots of battery.

nealabq 6 hours ago||
I think he meant it can fall onto his toddler, causing injury.
GCUMstlyHarmls 5 hours ago|||
Could we not simply encase the weaker unit some kind of armored robotic shell?
m463 5 hours ago|||
Then we would need better baby-gates. But that might lead to escalating scenarios.
SV_BubbleTime 5 hours ago||
Tragedy of the commons toddler armor. Can you guys fucking not? It’s best to death. I’d rather have a Ford vs Chevy vs Ram conversation again.
SturgeonsLaw 5 hours ago|||
Might as well put an AI chip in the toddler's exosuit and get another bot
nradov 4 hours ago|||
Meanwhile the Roomba-successor robots that I've tried still get tangled up on our laptop charger cables and wedged under the coffee table.
Gigachad 4 hours ago||
I got given a Huawei one for free which I found useful while I had a housemate with a cat since the place needed a vacuum almost twice a day. But after he moved out I just went back to vacuuming manually since it’s easier than having to scan the floor for every cable or throw rug it might get jammed on.

I don’t want to say home robotics will never happen since it seems likely eventually it will. But I think the deployment will be much much slower than entirely software based products like ChatGPT.

ezconnect 4 hours ago|||
I don't see a future with humanoid robots inside the house. We probably will have specialized robots for certain task like the roombas.
p1esk 3 hours ago||
I fully expect to buy one within the next three years. Probably Optimus 4, depending on the price.
dyauspitr 4 hours ago||
You won’t have an eka claw. You will have a humanoid. It’s a no brainer. You will get used to the “danger” just like we got used to the danger involved in driving a car or ceiling fans or propane home heating. Every year you’ll have a handful of injuries/deaths but eventually because of how useful they are no one will care and rightfully so.
RajT88 2 hours ago|||
Well, except we have 5 decades of cautionary tales in film that show plausible ways this goes sideways when everything is connected to the internet.
Markoff 2 hours ago|||
what's the danger involved with ceiling fans (unless you are Korean)?

now that I think about it I can only remember videos of people doing really stupid things with them, then being surprised by really bad results, but never heard about any of them endangering anyone during normal operation

dyauspitr 1 hour ago||
In rooms with low ceilings people can sometimes get hit if they’re standing on their beds. Basically the point I’m trying to make is you have something with metal blades spinning really fast only a few feet above your head.
xp84 8 hours ago||
“Eka, open claw!!!!”

“I’m sorry, OpenClaw is not approved for an account on your subscription tier.”

suffocates from being choked by robotic claw

handfuloflight 47 minutes ago||
Masterpiece.
SpyCoder77 6 hours ago||
This comment is not going unappreciated
notatoad 8 hours ago||
It seems silly to be talking about a “ChatGPT moment” for a piece of industrial hardware that no regular person will ever have any cause to consider buying.

The ChatGPT moment was when they launched a product that was generally useful to the average person. Something that isn’t a consumer product at all is very unlikely to achieve success in the consumer market.

yakbarber 8 hours ago||
In less than 10 years there’s going to be millions of bipedal robots everywhere, doing all sorts of chores for us. They’re going to need hands.
analog31 5 hours ago|||
I'd consider hands to be more important than bipedal mobility.

I work in R&D, supporting a high-tech factory. The factory has already been laid out so that the entire place is accessible for materials being moved around on carts. The worker could be replaced by a cart with hands. If we could solve the hands problem right now, we'd be buying robots by the dozens.

Also, lots of things could be done right now by stationary robots. But at the present level of technology, what we really lack are programmers. Naturally what I'm saying could be overturned tomorrow by AI, so I'm talking in terms of how things work today. I'm actually one of the few people at the site with experience at industrial automation, but it's not part of my job at present.

In a sense, the hands we lack are hands on keyboards.

FourierEnvy 4 hours ago||
Yes, thats your current perspective. But by the time you get programmers, the whole company will be automated
nkrisc 8 hours ago||||
That’s an incredibly optimistic timeline.
pedalpete 7 hours ago|||
Slowly, then all at once.

Computers were nowhere for ever, then everyone had them. The internet was tiny, then everywhere. Smartphones were a teensy market, then everyone had them. GLP1s were for a small group of diabetics, now a significant portion of the population take them.

This is how things playout time and time again.

Does it mean the commentors 10 years is correct? No. But it also doesn't need to be incredibly optimistic. All it takes is getting the robots right, and there are multiple companies who seem very close.

marcosdumay 7 hours ago|||
It took almost 20 years from computers that nobody brought on electronics and photography stores to computers in everybody's desk.

Robots will probably be slower, because there is way less room for optimizing their cost.

Gigachad 3 hours ago|||
We have had more than 10 years of robotic vacuums and yet they are still a fairly niche product.
jcelerier 7 hours ago||||
robots have existed for more than 20 years though. Boston Dynamic's dog is 22 years old, Atlas 15-ish
somewhatgoated 5 hours ago||
What can I as a normal person use these robots for?
Gigachad 3 hours ago||
Nothing. They were designed for the military.
dmix 7 hours ago|||
Mostly just the cost, yeah. It will be like buying a car. The economics will have to make sense for regular people, while it starts popping up in tons of places and become a status symbol.
bigyabai 7 hours ago|||
Digital computers existed for ~10-20 years before hitting the consumer market. It took almost a half-century for the microprocessor to become a ubiquitous appliance.
SequoiaHope 7 hours ago||||
We’re already seeing huge progress in humanoids coming from china. The big problem is software and world understanding, but the data collection from today’s humanoids and the rush to capitalize on their potential now that manufacturing their form is largely solved (save for hands) will see these problems overcome.

I expect it will be common to see them make deliveries in five years. Regular people don’t have to buy them for them to see widespread use.

0xbadcafebee 6 hours ago|||
So, after they work out all the mechanical kinks (there are quite a few!), and after they work out all the software issues (again, many of them), the last problem is the biggest: production. Anyone can make a half dozen robots by hand. A hundred thousand is a completely different challenge. If they can't be made efficiently, their cost makes them more of a toy than a tool.
SequoiaHope 8 minutes ago|||
Have you seen the mass produced humanoids from China? They’re incredibly capable (again, save for hands which is a huge mechanical and software problem) and cheap.

https://youtu.be/mUmlv814aJo https://youtu.be/GzX1qOIO1bE

nine_k 5 hours ago|||
One of the Tesla's factories is winding down car production in a plan to convert to producing humanoid robots.
0xbadcafebee 3 hours ago||
I can buy China doing it, but not Tesla. They have a terrible track record of production, nothing even close to China's capability. In the past they've "developed" factories by taking huge government incentives and then basically doing nothing with them and pocketing the cash.
fontain 6 hours ago|||
Deliveries use hands because humans have hands, not because hands are a prerequisite for deliveries. Last mile is already “solved” with the little robots that drive around cities, no need for hands. Humans are useful because of our brains, because we can adapt to almost any situation for very little cost. Humanoid robots will remain a novelty until the cost is reduced far beyond what is plausible.

How do we define common? I’ll bet that in 5 years, the average person, even in somewhere like SF, will not see a humanoid robot during their every day life.

nradov 4 hours ago|||
I predict that we'll see limited combat use of the latest Chinese bipedal robots within two years. They'll sell to both Russia and Ukraine.
0xbadcafebee 7 hours ago||||
The bipedal robot thing is interesting, but there's only two places their cost makes sense: industry and war. After war makes them cheap to mass-produce (because an army of robots needs to be sustainable), then they'll be affordable. But they'll still be highly regulated, mostly as a political reaction to "losing jobs". It will probably take 30+ years for us to get to that point, because wars big enough to invest that much expense and manpower aren't common.
nine_k 5 hours ago|||
Also medical / elderly care. A large market.
Mars008 6 hours ago|||
Chinese Unitree already makes humanoids for $5K. Cheap enough for average american family to afford if it's useful. Several batteries and automatic replacement station will make it run 24/7 non-stop.

So, it terms of cheap capable hardware we are close. The problem is software and computing power.

0xbadcafebee 3 hours ago||
That is interesting, but it looks like the ones used for practical work are $30k. Still, they're targeting 20k units this year, which is a lot more production and a lower price than I imagined they'd be at by now.
walrus01 8 hours ago||||
I remember a certain public personality who is very big on bipedal humanoid robots these days also promising us that we'd have truly autonomous self driving cars from his company by 2022, or 2023. It's now 2026.
Gravey 7 hours ago||
We can debate the meaning of “truly autonomous”, but the Tesla-owning friends and acquaintances of mine have all, without any uncertainty, recently commented to me that the top-tier self-driving plan in the modern Teslas is just that.

One frequently uses it to drive from his house in LA to San Jose, another from Philly to Boston, another from Kamloops to Vancouver (Canada). I personally have never experienced it, but I trust their word and experiences enough to believe that it is at an extremely high level of capability.

boc 6 hours ago|||
Highway driving is a bit different from complex city conditions. Just look at the difference between the telsa robotaxi performance vs Waymo. Only one of them is truly FSD.
Gravey 6 hours ago||
> Highway driving is a bit different from complex city conditions

Fair and valid, but worth noting that these drives are door-to-door, not just advanced highway cruise control.

Any idea where one might find a trusted source for data on the robotaxi performance? Especially curious about the latest self-driving models, rather than historical performance.

chihuahua 4 hours ago|||
Today, Tesla's so-called full self-driving system is legally classified as SAE Level 2 driver assistance [1]. The human driver must continuously monitor the system, be ready to take over instantly at any time, and is legally responsible for the the car. Tesla is careful to avoid any liability for this by stating this somewhere, perhaps in a 3-point font.

Even if techbros loudly insist that they can take a nap in the back seat, that doesn't change the legal facts. Just like a drunk driver confidently shouting that he's totally fine to drive.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot

Gigachad 3 hours ago||
I hate how they are able to avoid liability like this. No human can sit in a car doing literally nothing but being alert ready to take over in an instant. Thats not how brains work. This is obvious but they use this excuse to divert any blame from the automated system to the occupant.
tamimio 5 hours ago||||
As someone in the robotics, I can tell you that’s never gonna happen, even if you see a fully functional demo of a robot (not just the typical money grab 3D renders), assume the real life performance are 10x worse.. there’s so much monkey business in robotics, plenty of over promising, so much empty hypes, that been going on for years, the only successful breeds are cobotics (like roomba and industrial manipulators) or recently drones, although still very limited due to endurance.
LastTrain 7 hours ago|||
Why bipedal?
p-e-w 6 hours ago||
Because the human world is built for bipedal beings and everything else will encounter obstacles somewhere.
Mars008 6 hours ago||
Dogs and cats don't complain. Gorillas and chimpanzee should be fine too.

Bipedal robots suck right now, but superhuman stability is achievable in near future.

AngryData 1 hour ago||
Yeah, I think 4+ legged bots should be more common than 2 leg variants. 2 legs is neat, but takes far more work and processing to control and balanced. It also requires much more powerful legs, a spider bot has more legs which makes it more "complex" in some ways, but individual legs don't need to hold and maneuver its entire body weight alone and it can hold 3 points of ground contact at all times, even when moving around, making it exceptionally stable. A bipedal robot has to be able to hold like twice its own body weight or more in order to balance and maneuver on a single foot in order to walk around and navigate obstacles.
roenxi 5 hours ago|||
Launched a product that, as I recall, was free. No real foreshadowing of what was about to come. Opened up an entirely new product category and started a process of reshaping at least the economy and probably society over the course of less than 5 years so far.

Yeah. I don't see how this is going to be a ChatGPT moment. Robot arms aren't a crazy new product. It might be big news regardless.

boxed 6 hours ago|||
This might age badly heh. Kinda like "we only need 2 MAYBE 3 computers for Sweden" (real thing people said back in the day).
nullsanity 7 hours ago||
[dead]
ofjcihen 4 hours ago||
I don’t know when this ridiculous melodramatic style of writing started to pervade all of tech but it needs to go away. It’s resurrecting the pain of around 2016 when everyone presented like they were giving their own TED Talk.
Morromist 1 hour ago|
Problem is talking in a simple, rational way doesn't get people to frantically cram huge wads of money down your pants. Was the same back in the day men in striped suits roamed the land selling curative tonics that were just alcohol and some smelly herbs.

I don't understand these frantic money people, but I do understand if you can figure out how to not be the greater fool you can make a lot of money. Seems kinda dumb this is how innovation is funded.

vjvjvjvjghv 3 hours ago||
I am waiting for a robot that can dust my shelves even when there are things on them. That would improve my life a lot.
everyone 23 minutes ago||
"a ChatGPT moment" doesnt seem very momentous. ChatGPT was surprisingly good compared to previous smaller models. But since then the LLM scene has just been insane amounts of hype and bullshit and financial skulduggery. Their actual utility is pretty niche imo.
gurjeet 5 hours ago||
A couple of minutes of video (presumably by the author):

https://www.wired.com/video/watch/this-company-is-building-s...

HNisCIS 1 hour ago|
I'm not sure I grasp the hype here. It's a few dynamixels screwed together. They're not even particularly good servos.
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