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Posted by speckx 1 day ago

Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI(www.tomshardware.com)
293 points | 340 commentspage 2
quantified 1 day ago|
When photosynthesis first appeared, the oxygen it produced poisoned the existing life. Sulfur-breathers basically disappeared. In the geologic record the oxygen shows up as massive layers of iron oxide which we mine and turn into steel now. New things can radically shake up the existing environment, the degree of shakeup is the measure of how radical it is.
Waterluvian 1 day ago||
It’s the ultimate NIMBYism. The idea is fine but nobody actually wants it when they’re the sulphur breather.

If you really want to see a radical shakeup that would have some very exciting effects, could I interest you in a little Total Atomic Anihilation?

ahoy 1 day ago|||
Great analogy! Unfortunately we are the sulfur breathers.
gosub100 1 day ago||
Let's shake up AI by taxing it's profits to ensure nobody in our country goes homeless.
TheGRS 1 day ago||
I'm thinking about how I jumped on getting a new PC a little over a year ago anticipating tariffs would balloon prices. Turns out I made the right choice but for the wrong reasons (not like the tariffs are helping either, but just wasn't as big of a factor).
asdfasgasdgasdg 1 day ago||
I'm sure the AI shortages are hurting, but also I'm still using my same motherboard from 2020 and I see no reason why I should have to upgrade in the next 2-3 years (whenever I buy my RTX 7070Ti, it might be time, but maybe not even then).
dghughes 1 day ago||
I guess my hasty purchase meant as only a temporary, times were tight, placeholder Dell Inspiron in 2015 has to do me for another ten years.
hnav 1 day ago|
hope you're handy with a soldering iron (reflow station?) because eventually the passive components are going to start failing and I don't imagine you'll be able to plug off the shelf components into a Dell
LeoPanthera 1 day ago||
No point in buying motherboards if you can't afford to put any RAM in it.
arian_ 1 day ago||
AI is simultaneously the reason you can't buy a motherboard and the reason you don't need to build a PC anymore. The industry is eating itself from both ends.
PowerElectronix 1 day ago||
Why don't I need to build a PC? I wanna run some stuff in it.
estimator7292 1 day ago||
[flagged]
wao0uuno 1 day ago||
AI is exactly the reason why I would like to build a high end PC. I'm interested in this technology but I don't want to have anything to do with AI subscriptions and big tech in general.
dabedee 1 day ago||
Progress, in any meaningful sense, has to mean we are more capable of sustaining ourselves than we were before. Burning down the commons to train and serve a mythomaniac chatbot is not that. The consumer markets that still worked will shrink, and some will die.
himata4113 1 day ago||
I was looking into self-hosting deekseek v4 pro since frankly cache reads are an absolute scam and they're 90% of the cost, but then I looked at the ROI and it will never pay off fast enough because the hardware will become obsolete faster even if you were running 10 token generation streams 24/7.

The napkin math resulted that renting is around 27 times cheaper than owning (not including power). I think we're really screwed when it comes to having owned access to AI unless intel comes out swinging with a c series card that has 128gb vram so we can run them in a 4x128gb configuration, but seems unlikely since nvidia has a large share in them.

This was calculated expecting around 30tok/s, of course you can get 2-5tok/s much much cheaper, but it's unusable for my workflow.

kingstnap 1 day ago||
Ironically the few people not scamming you for cache reads are Deepseek.

Everyone else charges a ridiculous amount but Deepseeks API is $0.003625 / M tok.

I'm surprised no one talks about this because of how significant it is. GPT 5.5 for example costs a ridiculous $0.50 / M tok cached. It's literally almost 140 times cheaper which matters a lot for tool calls.

himata4113 1 day ago||
it's a temporary promo, deepseek will return to only 10x cheaper after.
kingstnap 1 day ago||
Yes Deepseek V4 pro is currently on discount.

> The deepseek-v4-pro model is currently offered at a 75% discount, extended until 2026/05/31 15:59 UTC.

However even when the discount ends its still very cheap. It will go back to $0.0145 / M cache hit. That's still 34x cheaper than GPT 5.5.

himata4113 1 day ago||
doesn't matter when subscriptions get cache reads for free, it is only really worth it if it's x340 cheaper otherwise I'd be paying $120 a day, 90% of the cost being cache reads for any top level opensource model.
dist-epoch 1 day ago|||
The only way to profitable serve AI is to have large batch sizes - run 500 requests at the same time.

If you serve a single user you'll never get your electricity price back, nevermind hardware costs.

varispeed 1 day ago||
Would you mind sharing the napkin maths?
mordae 1 day ago||
Not OP, but basically take GiB/s and divide by 30. You need at least 128GiB to hold the model, too. It's expensive to get 200 GiB/s, very expensive to get 400 GiB/s and above that you are looking at DC-grade GPUs. Multiple, in fact.
overgard 1 day ago||
I know it's going to be extremely painful, but the sooner this ridiculous unsustainable AI bubble pops the better off we'll be. The more it inflates the more collateral damage it will cause, and we're probably already looking at 2008 levels of financial chaos.
rkozik1989 1 day ago||
There are probably multiple goals of AI investment. It's entirely possible that they are deliberately killing the affordability of how personal electronics like home computers are made and will instead replace them with terminals that stream everything to the cloud. You can make a lot more money off consumers if you can turn their entire computing experience into a utility.
andrekandre 1 day ago||

  > replace them with terminals that stream everything to the cloud
they've been trying for a looong time on that one. i still remember those junky "net appliance"s from the early 2000s [0] and oracle and sun making big statements about them...

[0] https://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/sonys-evilla-joins-audr...

jeremyjh 1 day ago||
What’s the feedback loop that leads to a total financial collapse? This looks much more like dotcom bubble. Everyone knows where the exposure is.
overgard 1 day ago||
I think it comes down to scale (there's like 2 trillion invested so far by very large institutions) and also AI hollowing out foolish companies that decided to go "AI native" and downsize and lose institutional knowledge. When the rug pull inevitably comes and the AI subsidies are gone, the entire idea of "efficiency gains" in a lot of places is going to look pretty bad as soon as they look at their bill.
andrekandre 1 day ago||
if that happens, its going to be one hell of a mess of dominoes to clean up...
voxleone 1 day ago|
Weren't we supposed to be living in the post-scarcity era?
fanatic2pope 1 day ago|
We are, it's just very unevenly distributed.
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