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Posted by _____k 1 hour ago

Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing(www.businessinsider.com)
119 points | 149 comments
delichon 1 minute ago|
There is little new under the big fusion reactor in the sky. I just read a chapter in James Glieck's "The Information" about tokenmaxxing in the telegraphy industry. There used to be a big market for code books to reduce the per-character charges for sending telegraphs. Compression was cash in the pocket. The telegraph companies discouraged the practice but were forced to accept it. The telegraph code industry started with the initial commercialization of telegraphy and didn't end until the 1920s.
izanton 1 hour ago||
What if... we stop for a moment, and then, after thinking for a moment, we stop hammering nails with a microscope, and stop using token usage as a metric of productivity?

I know it's sounds stupid, but what if

symfoniq 37 minutes ago||
There is a complete lack of courage in the leadership of tech companies today, and top-down AI mandates are just another manifestation.

True visionaries think outside the box, but most tech executives are forcing their employees into black boxes, out of fear of not doing exactly what their competitors are doing.

We have lemmings for leaders, and that means that—much like the LLMs that are being shoehorned into everything—there isn’t room for original thinking. Everyone’s strategy looks exactly the same.

overfeed 12 minutes ago||
> Everyone’s strategy looks exactly the same.

If one is a CxO who's looking out for one's job security, herd-like behavior is the safest option, due to the (near universal) structure of "performance"-based executive remuneration.

Lalabadie 45 minutes ago|||
You're now in the last frame of the comic, getting thrown out the window.
swed420 28 minutes ago||
Maybe it's time we adopt/design an economic system that isn't so easily co-opted by counterproductive prisoner's dilemmas.
nradov 17 minutes ago||
What would such an economic system look like?
tekno45 55 minutes ago|||
Not very Billion Dollar Valuation of you.
99954bb63ccc 36 minutes ago|||
I feel like individually, if you sat down with literally any reasonable person on the planet they would arrive at and/or agree with the tenor here.

I'd be curious to hear from people well versed in group psychology/dynamics and/or just a lot of leadership/people experience: what leads people to this type of thinking once they get in a group setting? It just... seems endemic at this point.

Obviously nobody here is going to know what I do or don't know, but I'm just increasingly curious what I am not understanding about this type of thing. It seems so obvious, yet that makes me ever more suspect that I'm oversimplifying it, or just totally ignorant about the problem in general.

mike_hearn 19 minutes ago|||
It's because the average organization has lots of people who don't care about their own productivity and won't adopt new tools or processes unless forced to. This is true of most new tech - lots of workers had to be forced into using computers - but AI also has some other bumps to cross like lots of people who tried early models and then wrote them off, not realizing how fast they'd improve. And most orgs have no infrastructure or processes for allocating individuals token budgets, and most employees have no experience of properly deploying budgets.

Roll it all together and saying "just use it dammit" has some obvious advantages:

1. It's clear.

2. It's simple.

3. It eliminates all excuses employees might come up with for not using it.

The people at the top of these companies aren't stupid. They might have miscalculated how many tokens people can actually use, but that's very hard to calculate because usage is opaque and tools/processes change on a nearly weekly basis. They will eventually build out processes, tools, social conventions and performance metrics that take into account efficiency of token usage. But this is hard! Most managers aren't really assessed on the precise productivity of their teams, for instance, because productivity is often poorly defined.

turzmo 27 minutes ago|||
Won’t be canned for going with the herd. I think it’s that simple, even if the herd is running off a cliff.
stusmall 13 minutes ago|||
That was a fun thought experiment while I waited for my ralph wiggum to finish running. Now thinking is over and back to the vibe
blitzar 29 minutes ago|||
If there are any tech CEOs out there reading, I can offer my services. I will pointlessly burn unfathomable amounts of tokens, in parallel, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, all for you. Think big big big numbers of tokens, you know whats cooler than a trillion tokens, a quadrillion tokens.

Lets talk my bonus, I will open the bidding at $1 per token.

devin 54 minutes ago|||
The people who have ascended to leadership positions are deeply divorced from reality.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it." -Upton Sinclair

lorecore 52 minutes ago|||
The crazy thing is their salary does not actually benefit from riding these trends. Unless it's equally/even more clueless board level pressure with ulterior motives (i.e., lifting their other AI investments or the sector as a whole).
transitorykris 10 minutes ago|||
I deeply believe this but have no strong evidence. Revenue has always been a cure all remedy. This will keep model providers alive along with the very wide range of companies that are experiencing growth with them (from chips to backhoes), for a time anyway. If/when that house of cards starts going in the other direction there’s going to be widespread pain. By analogy the nonsense of the dotcoms and that crash had a very direct impact on their suppliers (e.g. telecoms). My only advice is to let the Microsoft’s and Meta’s do the tokenmaxxing, and don’t get suckered into the idea you (startup, individual, etc) should be playing that game.
repeekad 50 minutes ago|||
Every c suite in the country is panicking about being left behind, from their perspective it’s either token max or fade into obscurity, or at least that’s what they were sold
sandeepkd 4 minutes ago|||
its a herd mentality, its a lot easier to follow the louder voices than to spend time understanding how it impacts your own particular business. Because google does this way, or apple does this way is a common argument in lot of feature/business decisions
treis 44 minutes ago||||
Please. These are the same people that force their employees to use Microsoft teams because slack is $5 an employee a month. They're not going to sit idly by while employees burn thousands a month in tokens.
devin 34 minutes ago||
It depends on which people you're referring to. The allocation toward AI budget has been so massive that I think a lot of businesses are way behind on trying to assess value for dollar for the AI-related crud they're shelling out for.
treis 13 minutes ago||
Everyone is feeling it out but the vast majority of spend has been subscription based. Some outliers may have used a massive amount of tokens but companies didn't pay for that.

That VC funded gravy train is likely coming to an end. But fortunately there are also reasonably efficient models now so that the tokenmaxxers can still make the (much cheaper) tokens go brrrr.

lorecore 46 minutes ago|||
I don't think that's accurate. I think every C suite in the country is looking to do away with labor's leverage as much as possible. I think this is a cultural thing more than anything else, C suite + investors looking to get rid of those pesky humans required to prop up their lifestyles. AI is the most credible path toward that. Short, medium or long term returns be damned, this is a reconfiguration of society and they want to shed what they consider to be baggage.
devin 36 minutes ago||
Like anything it's a mixed bag. I am certainly working with people who I think truly believe the "max out on AI usage or become irrelevant" line. There are people who will privately let you know they're just working with the current meta the best way they can, but others who are drunk on kool aid.

Trying to operate as a rational, thinking person in a lot of environments right now feels impossible. Rational thought is being treated like AI skepticism.

pera 33 minutes ago|||
They get paid for saying whatever VCs want to hear and now that thing is "we have now become an AI-native company". The thing I'm still trying to understand is who is scamming whom
nradov 37 seconds ago||
Uber is publicly traded. They're not beholden to VCs any more.
zeroonetwothree 52 minutes ago||
Come on, don’t be crazy
FartyMcFarter 1 hour ago||
If any company announces that they use token consumption as an employee performance signal, for me that's close to a red flag to stay away from that company.

No company with good engineering leadership should act like this is remotely a good idea.

LaurensBER 1 hour ago||
Tokens are the new "lines of code per engineer". Easy to graph, easy to "manage".
mig39 28 minutes ago|||
The new TPS reports!
KellyCriterion 53 minutes ago|||
...and easier to bill! Back, then noboday had the idea to charge per "lines of code", but today it seems accepted to charge per words processed?
abvdasker 46 minutes ago|||
Meta does this. Guess what one of the criteria for their recent layoffs was.
loeg 13 minutes ago||
Meta tracks token consumption, but has explicitly stated that it is not a performance metric.
KaiserPro 43 seconds ago||
Indeed, they also said that previous time off for ill health wasn't a reason either.

but looking at the number of people who had taken leave, it suggests otherwise.

an0malous 50 minutes ago||
I worked at a YC company that was doing this and left last month. I wonder where this all started from, VCs and tech execs are such a monoculture
mrkeen 52 minutes ago||
I always used to wonder this about software stacks even prior to LLMs, but it seems more relevant now somehow:

When will Uber (or your favourite company) be 'done'? They've been writing software for 16 years.

They match drivers to passengers. More software isn't going to increase the chance that I seek them out instead of taking a bus or train.

Will their software be finished in 20 years? 80?

goldenarm 46 minutes ago||
Most of the codebase is custom integrations for local markets. You can systematize some of it but most of the complexity comes from there.
AlotOfReading 4 minutes ago|||
Sure, but custom integrations seem unlikely to explain the majority of Uber's technical headcount. Let's say they average a dedicated engineer for each of their 1000 largest markets/locations. Let's assume another 200 across the countless smaller markets. Let's assume 50% overhead atop this for things like infra, tools, and management. These all seem like exceedingly generous estimates to me.

They actually had 5,000 engineers in the tokenmaxxing blog post. Are the rest of Uber's engineers chasing down the long tail of other business aspects? Is that valuable?

SoftTalker 39 minutes ago|||
Can you provide an example? What is different about running Uber services in Chicago vs. Indianapolis?
tpolm 23 minutes ago|||
Vegas: ordering a tax "to a hotel" - hotels have different entrances, pickup / dropoff there during crazy times is hard. Uber UI for Vegas is unique / some features are designed to make it easier for driver and passanger to find each other

Airports: different regulations, different rules for pickup/dropoff. Also scammers who pretend to be in a car, walk with their phones around pick-up ares in airport and do bait-and-switch (saw that in Istanbul SAW and in Dubai Al Maktoum)

iLoveOncall 35 minutes ago||||
For example in Seattle you pay county fees, and then state fees, and then maybe special fees if you were picked up in the airport.

I took a ride from SEATAC to my hotel in downtown Seattle and besides the ride itself, there were 5 other items on the bill, 4 of which are specific to the place I used Uber.

Then I had the return trip from my hotel to SEATAC, on this one I got EIGHT items on the bill, on top of the ride fare. Some specific to Seattle itself, some specific to the road that the Uber took (a tunnel fee - which is different based on the direction you take it in), etc.

So the real question is what is NOT different between two locations. Less than 15% of the bill.

I also took Uber in India, where you have to share a one-time password with the driver for example, which I've never seen in any other country.

In some other countries the Uber app exists but Uber drivers are actually taxis, so you're actually ordering a taxi via the app.

Groxx 14 minutes ago|||
Uber has also been public transit: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jul/16/the-innisfil-...

Essentially every single airport in the world is custom UI and custom walking path guides and pickup instructions, and rules for where pickups/dropoffs/etc can occur can change multiple times in a day, much to everyone's enjoyment. They're almost all private property, and are so valuable that whatever they want is what they get.

And food. Most/~all? major brands get custom integrations.

Hundreds (iirc) of identity verification providers, most or all custom, and constantly weighed against cost and accuracy because it ain't cheap and it ain't good but it is far better than none (both legally and ethically).

No idea how many payment sources the accept, but it's definitely a lot more than anyone thinks.

And remember that this is all international. So scale is huge and law changes are constant and frequently conflicting. Darn near every useful feature is illegal somewhere, at some time, for both good and bad reasons.

---

This is not at all to say I think Uber is efficient, clearly it is not. Not by an enormous margin. But there is a legitimate need for truly absurd complexity, because the world is not consistent. You see similar things happen anywhere [thing] tightly interacts with humans.

zeroonetwothree 9 minutes ago||||
Use Link next time. Only $3
SoftTalker 33 minutes ago|||
Ah local regulations and fees. Not so much the core service algorithms. That makes sense.
MajorBee 14 minutes ago|||
There's an excellent HN thread that talks about this very question (that comes up on HN every now and then - what _does_ company X do that needs so many engineering resources?): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25375921

TL;DR: Managing a taxi service (that's what Uber is in my mind, not whatever "ride share" means) that spans cities and states, never mind countries, is extremely complicated. To their credit, Uber manages to make it look simple to the end user, prompting such comments as "meh it's just a few screens how hard could it be", which is triumph of product engineering as far as I am concerned.

Related: this blog from Uber talks about the problem of serving market-specific configuration data at scale: https://www.uber.com/us/en/blog/how-we-unified-configuration...

great_psy 43 minutes ago|||
I think you’re missing how complex international operations and optimization are.

Each country has their own laws around what uber is and isn’t allowed to do. This needs to be formalized in code. For example you actually call a taxi, though the uber app, and the amount you pay is per mile, not a fixed fare decided ahead of time. To add to this complexity, some cities will have their own laws. What happens if you take an uber from town a to b, where each one has different laws ? A lawyer probably has an answer but the app needs to adhere to that. On top of that laws change all the time.

Optimization, well you can always optimize something. speed, costs, paths etc. In a way this never ends.

I think the part we interact with as consumers is a tiny sliver of the complexity those services have to build and operate.

zeroonetwothree 12 minutes ago|||
Well there is a lot of ongoing maintenance cost. There is probably still some marginal gains possible on the matching side. There are new products to launch. So while one specific software can mostly be finished, the total software of a company is always changing.
bee_rider 45 minutes ago|||
Weren’t they trying to do their own self-driving thing?

I think this is partly a problem with companies that have had heavy investment. Uber’s value isn’t based on what they are doing, it is based on the idea that they are going to render ideas like owning your own car or taking public transit obsolete (I mean that’s an exaggeration but less of one than it ought to be).

SoftTalker 38 minutes ago||
AFAIK they gave up on doing self-driving themselves a while ago. I'm sure they are still hoping to be able to get rid of human drivers somehow.
trollbridge 12 minutes ago||
If they didn’t have human drivers, they’d have one less human to exploit per ride.
dag100 45 minutes ago|||
There are always newer technologies and techniques to be implemented. Better algorithms. Larger deployments. Better reliability. There are also almost always bugs to fix. So, so many bugs.
darepublic 30 minutes ago|||
shiny new tools but people only want to use them on the same old problems. how can we innovate the development of crud apps even more?! that was what plagued the web dev landscape for some time. Constantly seeking newer lazier means of producing the same old product. I admit it has an allure but if companies are no longer constrained by dev effort / labour then they can only ponder their own reflection as the source of their failures.
BonoboIO 19 minutes ago|||
There is always a rewriting around the corner
SpicyLemonZest 30 minutes ago|||
Uber is at a large enough scale that this analysis doesn't work. You and I do not care even a tiny bit about "Eats for the Way", one of their planned features this year (https://www.uber.com/us/en/newsroom/go-get-2026/) that lets Uber Black passengers specify that their car should arrive with their Starbucks coffee order. But if 0.01% of users order 1 additional ride a month because of this, that's about 200k rides a year, which may well be sufficient to justify the development costs.
strathmeyer 23 minutes ago||
[dead]
crorella 54 minutes ago||
Tokenmaxxing makes no sense, it is akin to write extremely inefficient SQL / Spark Jobs, full of cartesian joins, ultra skewed datasets, etc, just for the sake of using as much compute / memory / IO as possible.

This always happens when the metric becomes the goal, companies should nurture and foster an environment where AI is used in the most efficient way possible, first asking "do we really need an agent for this" and if so, what kind of agent is needed, what model, reasoning level, etc.

They should also promote projects that aim at saving tokens, increasing cache hits, codifying the information in ways such they use as less context as possible (graphs of knowledge are pretty good for this!)

InsideOutSanta 44 minutes ago||
It's toddler-level logic. "You can achieve positive outcomes by using X. Therefore, we need to use as much X as possible to maximize positive outcomes."

It's like trying to win a race by setting a gas station on fire.

SpicyLemonZest 43 minutes ago|||
The argument in favor of "tokenmaxxing" has always been that it's creating space for employees to freely explore the broad and novel space of AI-enabled workflows. I've seen a number of use cases where I'm skeptical any value is being produced, but a number of others where some team or another has finally solved a long-standing problem of theirs with an agentic workflow that would have been hard to justify to a cost review committee.

> They should also promote projects that aim at saving tokens, increasing cache hits, codifying the information in ways such they use as less context as possible (graphs of knowledge are pretty good for this!)

My understanding is that most big "tokenmaxxing" companies do have teams who are working on this in the background.

HDThoreaun 23 minutes ago||
Tokenmaxxing exists because executives think employees are resistant to change. Thats it, a way to incentivize/force every employee to experiment with a new technology. Obviously once they think everyone is utilizing AI the tokkenmaxxing stuff will end.
loeg 11 minutes ago||
Yes. Executives think, correctly, that employees are resistant to change.
matheusmoreira 2 minutes ago||
LLMs are great, I can understand using them in general. I can even understand chasing 100% weekly usage if you're using the gacha-like subscriptions since that's how you get the most value out of what you paid for.

These corporations are insane though. They're essentially ordering their employees to set money on fire or be fired themselves. Mind boggling.

mchusma 23 minutes ago||
I actually do think token maxing is good, but they should have limited it per user. I find it reallly hard to get people to max out the Claude $100 plan, let alone the $200 plan. I understand the enterprise plans are different and more expensive, which is how you get these kinds of issues. But encouraging people to try things with AI is very important, and some amount of token maxing is importsnt.
trollbridge 11 minutes ago||
Man, it sure isn’t hard for me to max it out.
SpicyLemonZest 3 minutes ago||
It's not hard for most people now. 6 months ago when agents first started getting big, I genuinely didn't know enough about AI tools to understand how it was possible to use so many tokens, and I don't think I would have bothered to find time to learn without a kick.
tquinn35 21 minutes ago||
Who’s it important for?
loeg 14 minutes ago||
The business. Employees are hesitant to learn new tools that are very different from what they are used to, so if your business believes that AI is a productivity multiplier, it behooves it to incentivize individual employees to learn to use the tool.
tquinn35 3 minutes ago||
I think the key word is “believes”. There is no proof that AI usage improves productivity. Token maxing is essentially customers paying to try and prove a business’s unsubstantiated claim. The AI companies should be proving their claims themselves not the other way around.

I do think AI has value and is useful but the idea of token maxing is ridiculous.

jhack 1 hour ago||
Maybe don't use the most expensive models on the planet? Maybe use AI like a tool and not this black box that grants wishes?
onlyrealcuzzo 54 minutes ago||
I think companies are reluctantly realizing that AI is not a magic genie in a bottle, and is instead a tool.

Still very valuable. They just need to have strategies that match what the tools are capable of - not strategies that involve "rub the magic lamp and increase profits 80%".

If the market is rewarding companies going after the "rub the lamp" strategy, they're going to say they're doing that to juice stock prices.

Maybe the market is finally realizing blindly spending billions on LLMs with almost no strategy is not a good strategy.

Who knows.

dgellow 54 minutes ago|||
Sounds like you want to be in the next round of layoffs?
mmastrac 16 minutes ago||
I am certain that the max sustainable boost from AI use -- with code review and otherwise all-in -- is approximately 20% with the appropriately skilled senior engineering talent, and the token budget for any engineer should not exceed that.

I do not believe that engineers who are tokenmaxxing are truely productive and I have not seen any evidence whatsoever (perhaps the opposite).

I've personally found that with the right flow and codebase knowledge, that's achievable with sustainable levels of effort.

bilater 47 minutes ago|
The black bill that is coming that nobody is prepared for is that the value of a token varies greatly depending on the human. Companies will quickly find out its much better to give your top 10% engineers a lot more tokens and lay off your average engineers. The 10x engineer will become the 1000x engineer.

Wrote about this and the impact of to jobs here: https://x.com/deepwhitman/status/2058324179506831372

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