Top
Best
New

Posted by surprisetalk 1 hour ago

Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC(www.anthropic.com)
199 points | 133 comments
cmiles8 1 hour ago|
There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.
roadside_picnic 1 hour ago||
It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs.

The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026.

The plan is to rapidly drive these prices up in the first 15 days, get the companies listed in the NASDAQ so funds are forced to purchase them at higher prices, then leave retirement accounts holding the bag.

throw0101c 1 minute ago|||
> The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading.

Official justification, and other changes besides timeframe, e.g.:

> First, eligibility and company size. As multi‑class share structures have become more common, we now consider both listed and unlisted shares when determining eligibility and ranking. This allows the index to reflect a company's full economic size, while index weighting remains based solely on listed shares. This change affects who qualifies for inclusion, not how constituents are weighted.

* https://www.nasdaq.com/newsroom/nasdaq100-index-methodology-...

BoggleOhYeah 24 minutes ago||||
This has been a thing in the CRSP indexes (ie. the benchmark for Vanguard’s VTI) forever. As long as it meets float and cap requirements, it’s inserted into the indexes five days after trading begins.

It makes sense. They intend to track the market as it is.

Though, you can definitely make the case that the popularization of index funds has allowed their holders to essentially become patsies to hype IPOs.

exabrial 28 minutes ago||||
>The plan is to rapidly drive these prices up in the first 15 days, get the companies listed in the NASDAQ so funds are forced to purchase them at higher prices, then leave retirement accounts holding the bag.

Dumb question: why couldn't retirement accounts simply not purchase these?

QuotedForTruth 23 minutes ago|||
These funds don’t invest actively (picking individual stocks). Instead they invest in indexes that track larger portions of the market. So they’ll automatically buy once the company is listed on the NASDAQ.
Avicebron 13 minutes ago||
Why do I imagine that no one whose retirement account is about to get smoked is in place to make decisions about whether or not this is a good investment
moregrist 16 minutes ago|||
Seems like there should be a market for a no-Elon/OpenAI/Anthropic ETF out there.

Or one that just imposes a reasonable waiting period on adding newly-IPO’d listings.

noelsusman 1 hour ago||||
Very few 401ks offer the NASDAQ 100 as an investment option. Last I checked it was <1%.
nostrademons 5 minutes ago|||
Apparently the rule change also affects CRSP, which is the index behind Vanguard's Total Stock Market (VTI) index funds.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-ipo...

VTI in turn is the primary holding of most of Vanguard's Target Date retirement funds, which are widely held in 401ks.

alemanek 30 minutes ago|||
Total market indexes and target date funds will include this and SpaceX on float adjusted basis I believe. The blast radius is much larger than funds that track the NASDAQ directly.
chinathrow 1 hour ago||||
How do these people sleep at night coming up with schemes like that?
adastra22 9 minutes ago|||
On a big pile of money surrounded by beautiful women.
cryo32 35 minutes ago||||
The use of people suggests they are human. I wonder sometimes.

Edit: oh looky did I inflame the PE simians?

ReptileMan 18 minutes ago|||
They don't. They work all night to invent them.
findjashua 32 minutes ago||||
almost all 401k plans offer funds based on s&p 500, not nasdaq/russell others. s&p has also halved their trading days requirement from 1 yr to 6 months, but that's still sufficient to be past the post-ipo lock-up period.
anonymid 14 minutes ago||
I don't think the S&P has actually made a decision yet. It is in progress, though: "The S&P Index Consultation on MegaCap IPOs" is the search term
giarc 1 hour ago||||
I get the sentiment that this is unscrupulous, however, isn't 15 days enough time to find the right price? Or will that not really happen until first quarterly earnings report, which will not occur within that 15 day window?
collinmcnulty 44 minutes ago|||
The fact that you know there’s a large pool of price insensitive buyers only 15 days away has to have some price impact.
iTokio 51 minutes ago||||
No, IPO pops, and honey moon periods are common.

And there are plenty of ways to manipulate the price, such as issuing a low float to a hyper hyped stock..

FireBeyond 51 minutes ago|||
I mean the goal is that you have multiple earnings report to show sustainability.

Meanwhile some of these companies are also lobbying to be able to only have to submit annual or biannual earnings reports, too.

Everyone is looking for multiple ways to leave the dumb money holding the bag.

FireBeyond 56 minutes ago||||
Very true. Anthropic just raised money at the end of last week.

There's no way they could have done that without telling those investors the S-1 was prepared and awaiting their signature on the round before they hit Submit, so to speak.

cdelsolar 1 hour ago|||
If you believe this is going to happen you can change the allocations of your retirement plans.
xboxnolifes 1 minute ago|||
Many individuals can, but good luck reaching out and convincing the entire country that they should look into making changes to their retirement fund allocations without sounding like a kook.

There's maybe, at best, 1% of the country even aware that this might be a problem.

bittercynic 54 minutes ago||||
You can protect yourself, but many won't be aware of the situation until it's too late, and institutionally managed funds won't be able to change their rules in time to avoid holding these as part of the index funds they hold.
yeswecatan 37 minutes ago|||
What should we be looking for?
atleastoptimal 11 minutes ago|||
what is going to cause the market to “sneeze”?
aspenmartin 2 minutes ago||
Exactly. Incredibly hard to understand what hard, non-headline-quoting, steel man arguments there are about how exactly the market will hiccup. And as if all of the AI companies somehow know this and are looking to IPO themselves out when anthropic revenue is growing > 10x per year for multiple years. Feels like a massive disconnect between “this will all implode” people and any real numbers.
gonzalohm 1 hour ago||
And oh boy do they make sure everyone knows that they are doing an IPO
neovive 1 hour ago||
If OpenAI and Anthropic eventually become public companies with trillion-dollar valuations, it will be interesting to see if their company ethos remains the same. With that much purchasing power, it's very tempting to gobble up competitors and raise prices.
johnQdeveloper 1 hour ago||
They already do both.

The real competition is coming out of China right now and I doubt the Chinese government is going to let them buy out their "fast follower" AI companies that are consistently 6-12 months behind in terms of quality. That said, I'm factoring quality as in Opus 4.5/Sonnet 4.5/GPT-5.5 as break points since I haven't really seen an improvement since that point when using AI.

satvikpendem 19 minutes ago|||
They'll just lobby to ban Chinese models as they're already doing.
fieldcny 57 minutes ago|||
You speak so authoritatively about quality and performance of these models, yet there are no quantitative metrics that correlate to real world outcomes that indicate that the quality and performance of these models is anything but subjective noise and classic benchmark nonsense.

A company consumed half a billion dollars worth of tokens in a month and nobody noticed anything until the bill came due.

Tha $500m dollars is roughly equivalent to 2000 people working for a year or 500 people working for four years, they can and would accomplish a lot if they worked in companies that add value to the economy by solving real problems.

4ffdd 37 minutes ago||
Indeed Its irrelevant. Each firm will make its own cost-benefit analysis, especially since the frontier labs are raising prices.

Marketing only takes you so far in creating noise.

Its weird seeing this focus on bench marks again - PC's did this for quite some time. But in the end it came down to - what does all this additional horsepower let you do? Oh create interesting apps, multi-tasking etc. Which was really the value-add.

herpdyderp 1 hour ago|||
The question is not "if" they will lose their ethos but "how long will it take".
pton_xd 1 hour ago||
If "Open AI" was their ethos, it was lost immediately. I'm not sure what the ethos of Anthropic is.
Arubis 1 hour ago|||
I gather most of the ethos behind Anthropic is "we don't want to work with Sam".
mirekrusin 57 minutes ago|||
Go public so everybody can benefit?
daseiner1 1 hour ago|||
corporate pursuit of monopoly is as sure a phenomenon as gravity
CompoundEyes 1 hour ago|||
I’m curious which will start producing hardware be it robotics, consumer or commercial devices, chips, energy infrastructure or transforming shipping crates into housing for jobless humans. Maybe even tanks of gel with arrays of humans in suspended animation reading our biometrics, thoughts, pumping in nutrients and training on the data. O_o
blmarket 1 hour ago|||
IPO won't lose their ethos. Competition out from their duopoly will.
seanp2k2 1 hour ago||
Who else right now is making competing models that are roughly as capable? Now factor in hardware availability / future delivery contracts and capital requirements for building datacenters and running new training. If you're trying to compete and lease all that with VC money or loans, good luck actually competing.
2OEH8eoCRo0 1 hour ago|||
There is significant first-mover advantage for torching your ethos.
pqtyw 1 hour ago|||
> if their company ethos remains the same.

What? In what way would the change? They are already raising prices..

ozgrakkurt 1 hour ago||
what is their company ethos? They are some of the most despicable tech companies in my opinion.
thomascountz 1 hour ago||
SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1]

[1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...

onlyrealcuzzo 1 hour ago||
Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first?
FuckButtons 1 hour ago|||
They all know it’s coming, if it pops before they ipo then they don’t get their billion dollar payday, they have every incentive to move quickly.
boringg 45 minutes ago||
FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.
alemanek 22 minutes ago|||
S-1 isn’t public yet. Source on the lockup period? SpaceX for example filed with accelerated release of insider/investor shares so I don’t think we can know if this is the case until the filing documents become public.
kingleopold 26 minutes ago||||
I'm sure they can get private loads or similiar way to "hedge" those? also dark markets and other tricks exist. Fin. eng. level goes way higher for them, just contact inv. banker or their lower class friends. They will find a way.
sandeepkd 26 minutes ago|||
It cant be that simple, I am sure that they will find some way to make money before that
roadside_picnic 1 hour ago|||
As you likely know, rules have recently been changed that basically force many 401k funds to invest in these IPOs while simultaneously having a relatively small number of the initial IPO to be sold to the public forcing the funds to by at inflated prices.

The bubble won't pop until these retirement accounts of have been raided.

s1artibartfast 44 minutes ago||
What are the 401k rule changes? I am aware that indexes changed their rules
xdennis 15 minutes ago||
I'm pretty sure that's the change GP is referring to. But pension funds can choose to specifically exclude such companies. The Danish pension fund has already excluded SpaceX, which owns xAI. (This also probably relates to American threats of annexation of Danish territories, not just AI stuff.)
root-parent 51 minutes ago|||
And as suspected, the Anthropic deal is not recurring revenue, its just a think they can cancel anytime with 90 days notice...Release the bad news slowly and when people are looking somewhere else...

SpaceX AI segment lost about $2.5B from operations in Q1 2026 on $818M revenue...they are burning dollars. Musk controls about 85% of voting power through supervoting shares, and cannot be fired...go IPO buyers...nothing like economic exposure without control....

jbkkd 37 minutes ago||
What changed?
40acres 1 hour ago||
After years of companies refusing to go public (looking at you Stripe), it's almost refreshing to see a hyped tech go actually IPO.
parthdesai 1 hour ago||
Is it actually refreshing? It's actually refreshing to see Stripe staying private for so long. That means, they have a sustainable business model, and can take on projects that might benefit users in the long term despite negative short term consequences instead of focus on growing at all cost for the most part.
mcast 50 minutes ago||
Stripe seems to be doing fairly well as a private company. They continually offer liquidity events for employees to cash out, while also retaining less pressure for hypergrowth from outside activists and investors.
freediddy 1 hour ago||
This is the first time I've seen a Public, Confidential S-1 filing.
Maxatar 1 hour ago||
It's the contents of the submission that are confidential, not the fact that they are submitting.

The contents themselves contain a lot of detailed information about the internals of the company including financials, revenue, ownership details etc... those details are what's confidential until the SEC gives its approval, at which point the public can then review the document.

outside1234 1 hour ago||
What this means it that it won't survive scrutiny, so better hide it so that there is only a small amount of time to do it.
jmtulloss 1 hour ago||
Why do you think this? Confidential filings before an IPO are standard practice.
Sol- 1 hour ago|||
I suppose they announced it because the fact that they submitted it would leak anyway.
root-parent 42 minutes ago|||
I like your sense of humor
iLoveOncall 1 hour ago||
That's how you know it's purely marketing and they're not actually going public.
0123456789ABCDE 1 hour ago|||
excuse me. what am i being sold, in this so called marketing?
iLoveOncall 1 hour ago||
You? Nothing. Private investors? The dream of an IPO.
0123456789ABCDE 55 minutes ago||
they closed series h, last thursday†. what are you on about?

† https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h

sh34r 1 hour ago|||
Given how often these get leaked (see Palantir + SpaceX) and the cost of preparation, why would you ever file an S-1 unless you were serious?
iLoveOncall 1 hour ago||
Because you want another funding round but you will get it only if investors think they're going to get their money back soon.
throwaw12 17 minutes ago||
I know market will buy it, but where would it find the money to fund the stock purchase?

Would it crash other company stocks so that investors start selling and purchasing Anthropic shares, or how does it work?

sschueller 1 hour ago||
Where will it be listed? I am considering selling all my index ETFs in those markets until the this blows over.
PUSH_AX 1 hour ago||
Time in market > timing the market.
rottencupcakes 1 hour ago||
It's this sort of mentality and the prolitferation of passive investing that gives these companies the opportunity to pass the bag.
PUSH_AX 1 hour ago||
“Passive investing” is not the same as “buying anything at any price”. Index funds follow transparent rules and weights. If the company is overvalued, that overvaluation is set by the wider market, not just passive investors.
barbazoo 1 hour ago||
I've heard of the changes to the NASDAQ rules and I somewhat get how they make it so these stocks are included in index funds earlier than before. As far as I know, NYSE and others haven't done the same change so index funds there are "safe", i.e. will include the stocks only after a longer period, implying that it will have settled in value by then. Is that true at all? I'm sure the situation is much more complicated, but I do wonder how to figure out how much I'm affected.
lbrandy 51 minutes ago||
There is a huge amount of misinformation on this topic, including in this thread, at the minute.

Some index funds have a very long horizon before they include them (e.g. a year). Others are "fast-tracked" (e.g. notably VTI). Most of those, however, are float-adjusted, so only the stock available for trade is considered part of the marketcap. So e.g. VTI / VTSAX will buy spacex relatively quickly after the IPO but at the float-adjusted weight of ~$75B because that's the % of stock available.

If you care alot about this, now is the time to understand how your index fund treats IPOs wrt to delays + float adjustment.

avensec 42 minutes ago||
Do you have any suggested reading references?

Specifically, I do a typical 3FP and own VTSAX, but I don't read bogleheads or anything. True set-it-and-forget-it, but I do want to read more if things are shifting.

lbrandy 31 minutes ago||
You should not trust me, but here's my understanding. I wish there was a really good writeup somewhere to explain this authoritatively but I'm not sure there is one. Would also love to see one. Frankly vanguard should do it.

VTSAX (and VTI) follow the CRSP index. This is float-adjusted but they likely will be fast tracked (these are two separate rules in how this index chooses to weight things and participate in new stocks). At ~5% float, these companies will be in the 50-100B range. So under all those assumptions, they'll be bought quickly but represent less than 1% of VTSAX (until they float more shares on the public market).

eamag 1 hour ago||
why did they raise 3 days ago? What's the benefit of doing this instead of going public right away? If it's just cash to pay for GPUs, can't they issue bonds or something?
Maxatar 1 hour ago||
You pretty much always do a late-stage private round shortly before an IPO, that is the standard. The goal of the late-stage funding round is to give a better idea of how much capital can be raised by the IPO. It helps reduce uncertainty about expectations of what the company is worth before going public.
44df 1 hour ago|||
Pump up the valuation baby.

Price setting.

gedy 1 hour ago||
IPO isn't really about "raising money for the company" any longer, unless one means raising the money in their wallets so they can take the money and run.
ch4s3 1 hour ago||
I'm curious to know if they generated this with Claude and what the prompt looked like.
ssgodderidge 1 hour ago|
Can someone help me understand how its "confidential" if they blog about it? Perhaps they simply mean the details of the S-1 are confidential for now?
kylecazar 1 hour ago||
The contents are confidential. They are just announcing they submitted it.
ConnorBoyd 1 hour ago|||
The S-1 itself isn't made public in a confidential filing.
general_reveal 1 hour ago||
[flagged]
tonyoconnell 1 hour ago||
so we shouldn't talk to humans when an ai can give an answer?
general_reveal 1 hour ago|||
If you have access to a Xeon processor, I don’t see why humans should be the first thing you interface with.
cdrnsf 1 hour ago||||
We should always talk to humans.
More comments...