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Posted by 0nce 6 hours ago

How to burst the AI bubble: Strike at its roots(arstechnica.com)
57 points | 46 comments
cryo32 5 hours ago|
Just wait for the economics to catch up and eat the marketing. No effort required.
tim333 1 hour ago||
But what about the damage along the way? Misallocation of capital? Too many data centers and not enough jobs? CO2? Expensive RAM? Endless articles on HN about AI saying there are too many articles on HN about AI?
NoGravitas 2 hours ago|||
https://theonion.com/fbi-uncovers-al-qaeda-plot-to-just-sit-...
sph 3 hours ago|||
With everybody investing on index funds, directly or indirectly through their 401k, does economics ever have a time to catch up? Being out of the market during the crazy hype means losing out on "easy" gains, so basically it keeps going up and up, these companies get even more hyped, and I wonder what's the end game.

I keep hearing that retail investors are just small fry and have no power to affect any stock's valuation, but certainly the hype spreads to big money as well.

Even if I'm way off the mark, I would love to read about what happens to the economy in the mathematically plausible case that people keep buying and no one ever sells enough to mitigate the hype.

nh23423fefe 42 minutes ago||
The endgame is owning equity assets which represent ownership in companies that make profits? I hold these valuable assets and then sell them in the future. What else could it be?

The assets are valuable because they represent ownership of the most productive companies on the planet?

dgellow 4 hours ago||
Though, the larger the bubble becomes the more damaging the pop will be
jgalt212 4 hours ago||
That's my real fear, that I have massive indirect AI bubble exposure while having zero direct exposure. Similar to how relatively few Americans had liar loans, but we all got burned by the subprime crisis. And then there were those bad actors that made the crisis work for them, and we got burned again during the uneven recovery.
tim333 1 hour ago||
Ironically I had a job figuring out what he meant by strike at its roots so I asked an LLM. Gemini seems to think he means labour bargaining/strikes, attacking the stock bubble with better accounting regulations and open source.

I'm not sure any of those will make much difference beyond what's already happening?

alansaber 4 hours ago||
I've been enjoying the industrial revolution parallels. Have the economics of bespoke products changed? Not really. But is it now easier to get a crude, but functional, approximation of an idea? Yes. The main issue appears to be users conflating B for A (and not realising their AI creation is fundamentally a mess).
tim333 1 hour ago|
I find the industrial revolution parallels interesting too. I figure we're in the steam age and this is a bit like the railway bubble. Or maybe a bit before that - I'm not sure current AI is as useful as railways.
cedws 5 hours ago||
The “reverse centaur” is a natural product of capitalism wanting workers to be as replaceable as possible in order to drive down wages. An ordinary “centaur” is counter to companies’ goals, they don’t want workers empowered.
RealityVoid 4 hours ago||
If that is true, they are incredibly stupid. Empowered workers create better, more effective companies.
ramon156 4 hours ago|||
But they also create workers that can hop off the ship. If they're on a sinking one, they have no choice but to work hard to get back to shore.
RealityVoid 4 hours ago||
> But they also create workers that can hop off the ship.

Sounds to me like a win for the workers, a win for the employer(in that they get better companies) and a win for society at large.

watwut 4 hours ago|||
I don't think CEO class want better, more effective companies. They have nothing to gain by that. They want monopoly situation for themselves, locked customers and helpless dependent employees.
alansaber 4 hours ago||
It depends but obviously they want both, both control and value.
deltoidmaximus 3 hours ago||
Enough control will create value for them anyway, it just might be at the expense of everyone else.
jgalt212 4 hours ago||
As a business owner I assure you I am not overly obsessed with labor costs. I obsess on all costs, and all revenues. VC funded and public companies may or may not take a similarly holistic view.
gsky 4 hours ago||
AI spending is all what keeping american economy afloat or else a big recession
vkou 5 hours ago||
> “The bubble doesn’t want cheap useful things,” Doctorow said. “It wants expensive ‘disruptive’ things

That about sums it up. I challenge anyone to name five things that have gotten cheaper or better in their life thanks to AI.

I can't think of anything that I consume that has gotten better, and the only thing that has gotten cheaper is the value of your skills to your employer, as it wants you to offload more of your work to a machine they own or rent. But perhaps someone here can find some tangible improvement.

samvher 4 hours ago||
Interesting challenge.

1 - I worked abroad and wasn't really familiar with the systems there. Gemini made me aware of a kind of pension account that I could withdraw from when I left the country netting me a few thousand dollars.

2 - Working as a tech contractor, charging by deliverable, Codex/Claude Code speed me up and it doesn't seem to have significantly dropped rates in the market.

3 - Also contractor related: I had Claude do a quick legal sanity check of my contracts, and it warned me of some clauses that I'd be better off removing/changing/refining. I was not aware of these nuances and would not have paid a lawyer for this as the contract was too small, but the changes were accepted by the client and reduced my risk exposure meaningfully.

4 - Learning a foreign language, I use it to check my draft emails and messages. It corrects them but also serves a tutoring role providing feedback, improving both the accuracy of my communication and my rate of language acquisition.

5 - Gemini Deep Research helped me narrow down tent models that met my fairly specific set of requirements. Very happy with the tent I ended up buying, from a brand that was not on my radar before.

beej71 1 hour ago|||
It's allowed me to learn things more quickly. For example, I haven't written any C++ professionally for 20 years, and found myself in the position of needing to know it again. The existing material online for learning it is thick; sometimes I have a question that isn't answered directly or clearly in any way I can find with a standard search. I can grill the LLM much more quickly and pointedly.

However, this does not answer the usefulness-at-work question. Does anyone care if I know how the initializer list braces in constructor `Foo{1,2}` work? Today for hiring managers smitten with AI, seems like they don't.

Personally, I'm just trying to stay sharp on the off-chance that things crash out and people who know how to engineer *and* code become highly valuable. If not, I'll be doing something else, anyway.

watwut 3 hours ago||
I can name three:

- better speech to text, - better auto translation, - better image to text.

Other then that, I hate how AI is inserted into everything, how I cant tell anyone I did something without them telling me I could have use AI for it, the doom trolling , the AIG singularity bullshit as if it was new incoming god rather then a set of technologies.

mattbrewsbytes 3 hours ago||
Usually when talking about bubbles bursting its about a stock market bubble. P/E ratios now are approaching/passing the P/E ratios during the dot com boom/bust. Another reference point with high P/E ratios was around 1929-1930 (there are others too).

The dot com boom can be thought of as ecommerce which enabled investing in a lot of silly ideas at the time. A key technology that underpinned it all and won out was search. Every ecommerce site felt like they needed search, there were search engine companies, lots of competition across google, yahoo, etc.

An interesting lens to put on AI and the current stock market is that the software will be commoditized, its an eventuality. Its trending towards being able to run LLMs locally and get decent output. Decent is subjective but output similar to Q4 of 2025 models is when we started seeing more consistently usable output.

I believe that will a potential the inflection point for a bubble bursting the stock market: local or DIY LLMs producing "good enough" output and companies publicly backing away from enterprise contracts, lowering their AI spend if they can find cheaper ways to do it.

spwa4 4 hours ago||
"If that’s the case, AI will let them wire the toy steering wheel directly into the drivetrain. So you can have an amazing idea as a corporate visionary, and you don’t have to have any ego-shattering confrontations with people who know how to do things, who tell you you’re actually an idiot"

Just beautiful.

feverzsj 4 hours ago||
It's kinda too big to fail in US now. If it bursts, US will decline quickly.
nixon_why69 4 hours ago||
It's not, though. The banking system holds onto everyone's money in a fractional reserve system, if you let a run on the banks happen everyone's money is gone. That's "too big to fail".

If anthropic and openAI fail, the top 10% lose half their money in a stock sell-off. That's perfectly tolerable. Maybe congress bails them out anyways but they don't have to.

Avicebron 3 hours ago||
If they get bailed out with taxpayer dollers they better maje damn sure the taxpayers are getting immediate tangible benefits (as in cash or free mythos class AI every month at a minimum). Sama can go beg on the streets, we'll keep the tech.
nxm 3 hours ago||
So you’re going to be shorting AI stocks?
anksarora123 5 hours ago|
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