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Posted by loughnane 5 hours ago

The labor share of income in the US is at its lowest post-war level(libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org)
409 points | 426 commentspage 3
Karthick81 5 hours ago|
Could it be because the productivity is up?
ghastmaster 4 hours ago||
The most interesting takeaway I see in the labor share percentage graph is the trend that labor share increases into the recession. Post recession share trends down for a bit.

How much of the trend is due to employment trends vs. printing money for the wealthy to get their hands on it first(and profit) post recession?

chasing 4 hours ago||
By design, no?
torginus 4 hours ago|
Yes by design. Basically just by designating one part of the economy as non-productive consumption economy, and the other part as production economy, they create the justification for inflation - so that the government can have free money and take it from the stupid consumers by decreasing their wealth a little every year should they choose not to spend it, and give it (sorry, invest) to the nice productive entrepreneurial capitalist part of enconomy who will somehow reinvest it allegedly (read: mostly buy up shit the former half needs and sell it back to them at markup), the system has a direct wealth transfer mechanism that points from the poor to the rich, it couldn't be any more shameless and obvious if they tried.
ETH_start 4 hours ago||
I wonder if labor itself will become an anachronism in the age of AI. Perhaps the future economic landscape will be dominated by capital because everyone will own capital. You will command a small army of agents to do whatever you want. You will no longer need to work for someone. You own small businesses far more than you could possibly operate in the pre-AI era and they will mostly operate autonomously with minimal direction and some guidance from you.
lesam 4 hours ago||
Assuming your labour contribution to these agents is 'minimal':

Why would you own them, instead of some well capitalized billionaire?

To the extent that you do have capital, why do you assume that your 'minimal direction and guidance' would outcompete a full time specialist working for that billionaire?

ETH_start 2 hours ago|||
Assuming agent costs keep declining exponentially as they have over the last three years, why would everyone not own some agents? It's not like the number of agents is capped and the billionaires hoard all of them. I imagine it would be more like smartphones, where there were only 50 million smartphones after the iPhone was first released in 2007 and now there are something like three billion. They become more accessible and plentiful over time. Same thing should apply to agents.

And in this world of abundant agents, what advantage does the billionaire have exactly over the non-billionaire? Their employees are less motivated than owner-operators, and they no longer have the scale advantage that large corporations used to have. Each individual can effectively operate like a large corporation, because each individual can have their own large synthetic workforce at very low cost. The scarce resource here then becomes uniquely human insights and real motivation, which entrepreneurs are always going to have more of than employees.

logicchains 4 hours ago|||
It's basic economics; larger firms become progressively less efficient for the same reason that communist command economies are inefficient, because there's no internal price signals to guide resource allocation. So there's a natural cap on how big a firm can get (in information theoretic terms, there's a hard limit on the amount of information a centralized structure can process effectively).
torginus 3 hours ago|||
We live in a world with a severe housing crisis - not shortage, as there are usually enough units, people just can't afford them.

One would assume the difficulty of building housing has gone down with the general progress of technology - and if all else fails, you can just do what they did 50, 100 years ago where affordability was far less a struggle - people, who had less income in real terms spent proportionally less on it.

So did society devolve that an unit of industrial output has become more expensive? Or did money and resources just go into a parallel 'rich people economy', that has created a constant drain on the resources of average people?

ETH_start 2 hours ago||
Housing is exceptionally vulnerable to capture because it is immobile. AI on the otherhand should see its cost continue to plummet due to competition. Per token costs have already fallen exponentially over the last three years.

I'm not sure if this addresses the point you're trying to make though. If not, please clarify your argument for me.

globular-toast 1 hour ago||
Until you can eat an agent it's all worthless.
macinjosh 4 hours ago||
The longer I participate in the economy the more it starts to feel like the end stages of a game of monopoly. There is nothing left to own unless you already are wealthy and the only way to get ahead is luck.
luizfzs 3 minutes ago|
The 2 main differences between our economy and Monopoly is that 1) in ours, some people start with properties and more money in hand and 2) a Monopoly game takes less time to end.
mrtksn 5 hours ago||
And yet for some reason all the algorithmic pricing targets the laborers, when apps hunt for whales they target teenagers. Ridiculous.

There is a need for proper pricing for the rich, i.e. Elon can pay a million dollars per meal. Someone is leaving money on the table.

Kbelicius 2 hours ago||
Ha, you just reminded me of something that I read a long time ago. Some history book which relayed a story from some part of islamic world from centuries ago.

A king goes hunting but fails to catch anything. Hungry, he goes to a nearby village. He enters the inn and orders some quail eggs. After finishing the meal, he goes to pay. The innkeeper tells him that the meal costs ten gold coins.

"I did not know quail eggs were so rare in these parts," says the king.

"They are not," replies the innkeeper, "but kings are."

playorizaya 4 hours ago||
Love this.

Parking and speeding tickets should have income brackets, at least.

In the early Internet I saw this thing, no idea if it’s true but it sounds good (someone can math check it), goes something like:

A person pays $2 to play basketball on a public court.

Michael Jordan gets paid $2k to play on the same one.

A person pays $100 for basketball shoes.

Michael Jordan gets paid $100k to wear the same ones.

A person pays $40 to go see a basketball game.

Jordan gets paid $400k to attend the same game.

Michael Jordan makes about $5 per second.

If Michael Jordan saved all his money without spending a penny for 250 years…

He wouldn’t even have half as much as Bill Gates!

It made me think differently about money and consumer spending.

mrtksn 4 hours ago||
> Parking and speeding tickets should have income brackets, at least

AFAIK in some countries this exist but my case is more capitalist oriented. Rich people obviously can pay more since they keep accumulating wealth. It is an obvious sub optimal pricing since the low and even middle class rent/mortgage and other services quickly approaching the most they can pay so they can’t actually save and make wealth.

bendbro 4 hours ago||
We should break up monopolies, revoke the vast majority of work visas, end free trade, and unionize.

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk, please leave a downvote to indicate I caused you emotional distress.

jmye 3 hours ago|
> please leave a downvote to indicate I caused you emotional distress.

How deeply puerile.

nimbius 5 hours ago||
this is relatively unremarkable for those with an understanding of wage, labor, profit, price and capital.

capitalism will always seek to reduce labor cost. during the epoch of neoliberalism it achieved great strides in this by reducing labor power through union busting by both thatcher and reagan in the UK and US respectively. it has also effectively curtailed any increase in the minimum wage for nearly 20 years as well as reduced protections, regulation and prosecution for wage theft and overtime pay violations which it maintains as exclusively as civil matters while ensuring theft itself from a merchant in turn is always a criminal matter through the primacy of private property.

to learn more i recommend reading Marx's "Das Kapital," albeit its rather academic. Engels "wage labor" is also a good read to understand why housing is so persistently unaffortable but helps to understand why any other good or service slowly becomes so as well.

torginus 3 hours ago||
The problem is we are one step beyond capitalist exploitation as described by Marx - basically the surplus which fatcat industrialists extract from the laborer does not really exist - you have to compete in the market with others who do the same, and offer things at the lowest possible margins, and if you need to be big enough to get capital in, you have investors who demand their profits.

So basically you are squeezed between the public demanding lower prices and the investors demanding record returns. If you are not a monopoly, that is an impossible ask

Basically the only truly profitable businesses left out there is selling hopes and dreams to investors, and shovels to those who build them, which just about describes tech & AI, with companies who regularly manage to 10x their valuations (and P/E ratios)

aeternum 5 hours ago|||
Marx fails to imagine a world in which labor actually has little to no value.

His worldview is primarily that capitalists 'steal' the valuable labor. However it doesn't seem that that is actually the world we are in. Instead the intrinsic value of human labor seems to be slowly trending towards zero.

And it kind of makes sense, same has happened with oxen labor, horse labor, etc.

saghm 4 hours ago|||
> And it kind of makes sense, same has happened with oxen labor, horse labor, etc.

Sounds like we should start imagining a world where we don't treat people like literal livestock, and then figure out how to get there fast

wqaatwt 4 hours ago||||
Isn’t it the complete opposite? i.e. high automatization means that a single worker can create many times more value than before. However it reduces the demand for labor and worker bargaining power. So companies have no incentive to pair “fair” wages.
aeternum 3 hours ago||
That is true but likely only temporarily. Why is the single worker even needed?

We tend to have a pretty human-centric worldview so if there's a single human working to keep a hotel running, our default is to attribute all the generated value to them when it really isn't the case. You can imagine that hotel at some point in the near future goes from requiring 1 worker to keep it running to zero.

wqaatwt 1 hour ago||
> is the single worker even needed

Because he is? I do not expect for some sort of universal “AGI” to emerge within my lifetime which would supplant humans in every area (of course what do I know.. but still there is no real indication we are even remotely close to that currently)

> default is to attribute all the generated value to them when it really isn't the case

Certainly, you should attribute a significant proportion to the people who installed the automated system and even more to those who designed it.

aeternum 14 minutes ago||
>Certainly, you should attribute a significant proportion to the people who installed the automated system and even more to those who designed it.

Indeed, but what happens if/when they choose to sell the system and someone else buys it? Now the owner is who is generating the value. Even if he hires some maintenance worker to come by once and awhile and check up on it, it is the system (aka the capital), not the worker that is generating the vast majority of the value.

arthurptj 4 hours ago||||
Then why does every plumber I know own a yacht
cucumber3732842 4 hours ago||
Industry cartel.

If you landscaper had one like the plumbers do he'd have his own yacht.

Or he wouldn't exist because you'd buy about as much of his services as you do a plumber's.

anthonypasq 4 hours ago||||
low skilled human labor is going to zero. high skill approaches infinity.
torginus 3 hours ago||||
> Marx fails to imagine a world in which labor actually has little to no value.

Marxism was an idea formulated especially as a reaction against a world where labor has lost almost all of its value. Which is precisely the origin of capitalism - the idea that money itself can be productive, and thus people who have lots of money can be expected to get more of it.

This was an untrue idea for most of human history, outside of the circles of moneylending and banking.

AlotOfReading 4 hours ago|||
It doesn't seem like the value of human labor is going away. If you look at luxury goods, they're still "handmade". Telecoms still advertise human representatives. Nursing homes still charge massive amounts for personal service.

What's changing is how much of that surplus value is captured by the workers doing the labor.

simianwords 5 hours ago||
Unfortunate to see educated and smart people quote Marx. No serious economist takes him seriously.

Labour theory of value is useless. Falling rate of profit is not empirical. Capitalism didn’t go away as he predicted.

Workers enjoy highest living standards of any time in history.

abdullahkhalids 4 hours ago||
> Workers enjoy highest living standards of any time in history.

It's entirely possible for someone to be paid a lot in absolute terms, while at the same time paid very little relative to the value that they produce which is monetarily captured by their organization. The truth of the first does not invalidate the injustice of the second.

kevmo 5 hours ago|
This is clearly heading in a direction where the USA is going to elect a huge number of socialists, who in turn are going to enact massive taxes on billionaires and break up the monopolies.[1]

This is why I think the billionaire oligarchs are literally mentally ill. They've won the entire game. They control everything. They live like gods, they twitch a pinky and millions dance.

But their response to all of this power is to seek even more of it, destabilizing the very system that has them on top. You would think self-preservation would kick in. The fact that it is not and that their greed knows apparently no bounds is going to lead to their extinction.

For a long time I thought it was hyperbolic to say so, but no longer -- the billionaires are mentally ill.

[1] https://work.news/post/project-2031/

imightbebatman 4 hours ago||
I very much doubt that. There isn't enough class solidarity to pull it off.

There will be a few who brand themselves as such. But actually seizing the means of production and handing them over to the people? -- The oligarchs will burn this country to the ground before they permit that to happen.

wqaatwt 4 hours ago||
It would of course be lose-lose for everyone. But if a significant proportion of the population starts believing (rationally or not) that they have nothing left to lose it could be problematic.
nairboon 5 hours ago||
Remember Occupy Wall Street? Back then the oligarchs were somewhat scared.
deaux 3 hours ago||
I too don't believe that GP's dream is going to happen, but the current momentum is much stronger than in the OWS days. Maybe it's less visible to some because the world has moved into online algorithmic bubbles rather than people camping in front of Wall Street. If they were more scared back then than they are now, it's not because the current momentum is actually weaker.
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