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Posted by kschaul 2 days ago

AI 2040: Plan A(ai-2040.com)
350 points | 413 commentspage 2
tfirst 2 days ago|
If carbon taxes are already a lethal policy for an political campaign, it's absurd to think that fears of ASI will create any real movement around pausing AI.

If there is any movement to pause AI development, it will come from the general public's dislike of these companies. Not from the AI safety angle.

arjie 1 day ago|
If that is true and one cares about a moratorium on progress in the US then it seems like the number one way is to meet people where they are: so water use misinformation, degrowth, power supply constraints. That does place all the people who push for these things in a different light. They may well be attempting to do what the AI safety labs are ostensibly trying to do.

As an AI safetyist, one’s closest ally (in a distributed coordinated way) is the populist misinformer. Fascinating.

Alpha3031 3 hours ago|||
It's possible the general public wouldn't care enough one way or the other such that elected representatives could just do it without any change to their electoral fortunes.
tfirst 1 day ago||||
If there's going to be any pause, I'm sure it will come from a populist movement. I just can't imagine misplaced worries about AI water use will translate into the kinds of policy the authors want to see.
arjie 1 day ago||
Yeah it’s like shoving the top of a double pendulum. You will get some movement in one direction, but where it will precisely land is hard to predict. The water-use argument is already earning refinement by differentiating “AI datacenters” from “normal datacenters” in an effort to control the movement.

I imagine any populism movement will require rampant fearmongering to get a result. Considering the rough present alignments, presumably blue tribe focused propaganda will involve climate and inequality focused fear and red tribe focused propaganda will involve job loss. Grey tribe positioning is the P(doom) meme where everyone is rewarded for a high-P(doom) estimate.

karahime 18 hours ago|||
You should consider why the best ally to your position is misinformation.
ajyoon 12 hours ago||
This is not the gotcha you think it is. Misinformation plays to all manner of political issues and sides.
karahime 8 hours ago||
I don't think it's a gotcha at all, they openly said it and were pondering how that might help them. Misinformation plays more to sides that are wrong about more things, and I don't consider misinformation my ally in anything.
Animats 13 hours ago||
This criticism, like most criticisms of AI, addresses the wrong part of the problem. The problem is harm to other parties. Typically customers and employees of corporations.

A solution is strict legal liability. Corporations must be strictly liable for harms. That liability should be higher when AI is involved. Such liability may not be waived by contract, forced into arbitration, or devolved upon a third party service.

Then we let the plaintiff's bar and the insurance adjusters price that risk.

Something like this turns on in the EU in October 2026.[1]

[1] https://cybernews.com/security/eu-will-hold-tech-companies-l...

throwawayk7h 13 hours ago||
No, nobody can be held liable for the extinction of humanity, for there is nobody left to pay up. If your objection is that you think AIs won't cause human extinction, you should say that instead, as that would be where you disagree with the authors.
vivzkestrel 11 hours ago||
- whenever i read this, why does it always read like some first world country guy born in a bathtub who has never been outside his bubble, never seen what the rest of the 90% world looks and works like actually sat and wrote a work of fiction

- have you seen the actual problems in other countries outside america?

- have you been to any country outside USA and the countries in europe?

- have you taken a trip to any developing country and stayed there for a month?

- have you seen what sort of daily struggles, political systems, bureaucracy and work exists in developing countries?

dash2 11 hours ago|
I think you need to explain why the problems of developing countries are related to the issues of the article.
vivzkestrel 8 hours ago||
the article makes a lot of predictions and every single one of em is based on how things work in the USA
dash2 6 hours ago||
What would be different in developing countries?
vivzkestrel 6 hours ago||
untracked economy at scale. like a tonne of work, occupation, money is not documented or doesnt enter the system channels
wronex 8 hours ago||
Remember people. We didn’t die form the 2k bug. We didn’t die when the Maya calendar ran out. We didn’t die from that asteroid or the other. Spreading fear is a very old pastime. How is to say AI won’t hit a wall in 6 months and we’re left with barley passable code parrots forever?
sajithdilshan 7 hours ago|
Exactly, this article is fear mongering at its best for click baits. I’m pretty sure they will publish another one next summer for AI 2028 with same narrative
kev009 10 hours ago||
More like AI psychosis 2040. There is zero chance of the 2031 doomer timeline presented, and I would stake a large sum of money on it.
Smaug123 6 hours ago|
That bet isn't one anyone will take the other side of, surely - how is your counterparty supposed to collect if they win? I guess you'd propose effectively supplying a loan with a massive interest rate?
dmix 18 hours ago||
NYT reported today that Russia and China are funding anti-datacenter and anti-ai hysteria on western social media.

Always easier to boost something already existing on social media than manufacture it themselves, then wildly blow it out of proportion to make it seem urgent and important.

coffeefirst 17 hours ago||
These campaigns have historically amplified conflict. They do not care what the conflict is about.

But unlike some of the others, I’m hearing anti-AI sentiment from a wide range of people who don’t even use social media.

dmix 17 hours ago|||
All news is influenced by what’s popular social media these days. And that becomes part of what people talk about through the grapevine.

But no doubt there’s plenty of organic NIMBYism, anti tech growth stuff, and run of the mill fear of change and loss of control as society grows more abstract/centralized.

computably 17 hours ago|||
Applying the term NIMBYism to anti-AI and anti-DC sentiment is a gross abuse of terminology. Datacenters don't need to be in anybody's residential neighborhood.
dmix 15 hours ago||
These developments are always facing local resistance. I previously lived in a place where they were building a quarry 30min outside of town and tons of houses had anti-quarry signs on their lawns. It was a big deal to appear anti-quarry even though it had little to do with their neighbourhood specifically (except maybe increased highway trucking traffic).

Most industrial development face local protests like this and it's often has large crossover with those NIMBY who resist stuff like housing developments, and show up at town/city councils.

magicalist 14 hours ago|||
Seems like you ignored the GPs point to tell a NIMBY anecdote? They're questioning your premise, not asking what "NIMBY" means.
CamperBob2 12 hours ago|||
Living anywhere near a quarry is no joke. There will be a lot more heavy trucks on the road, with drivers who care very little about covering and securing their loads and even less about your windshield.
munificent 16 hours ago||||
Everyone lives in a world deeply affected by social media. Even if you've never looked at a screen your entire life, you have spent thousands of hours talking to and being informed by people who did.
coffeefirst 7 minutes ago||
World, yes, as people around you including politicians and businessmen have had their brains pickled.

But I doubt the influence. I’ve been free for years, and I can always spot who’s spends a lot of time in TikTok/Twitter/Instagram—it’s like talking to someone from another planet. It mostly sounds weird and sad, more apt to annoy and alienate their friends than inform or influence them.

hn_throwaway_99 15 hours ago|||
Which then gives more ammunition to folks like Kevin O'Leary et al to pretend any objections to data centers or AI are Chinese plots, or "hysteria" as you put it.

While I can admit some of the anti-data center arguments are overblown, many are more than valid in my opinion. Data centers are fundamentally extractive technologies. They are enormous, windowless boxes that take resources from one location to make someone else in a far off location enormously rich and powerful, with extremely few benefits to the local community.

Plus, as another commenter mentioned, it's not exactly like the Chinese and Russians have been fanning the flames that AI is going to take all of our jobs - it's the leaders of the frontier AI companies in the US saying that. Remind me again why I think putting up a giant data center in my state, that was proposed to use more electricity than my state already currently uses, is a good thing for the average joe where I live??

Honestly, I feel like many commenters here are in their own bubble and don't understand how much AI and tech generally is widely viewed as a net negative for society by huge swaths of the the population, and I don't really think it's an unwarranted perception.

dmix 14 hours ago||
Most of the issues with datacenters could be solved by a) investing in energy b) ramping up RAM and chip production, and c) enforcing already long established rules around industrial water management.

These tech companies are already investing heavily into solar, natural gas, and nuclear https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/30/data-centers-love-solar-he... this would be normal stuff in China where they spend the last decade investing heavily in solar and are bringing something like 60 nuclear reactors online.

These datacenters aren't particularly consumptive of water compared to most other industries in that regard and we've already seen states enforce rules against Meta who immediately paused their datacenter when water issues were detected (following mandatory monitoring).

Chip production is lagging but most projections I've seen is it will normalize in about 5yrs. Not to mention there will be further demand for robotics and self driving cars, so ramping up chips should be a normal thing like ramping up green/nuclear energy. Delaying it won't solve any current issues.

WarmWash 18 hours ago|||
There are 22 golf courses within a 30 minute drive from me, and people here a losing their minds over datacenter water usage...
swatcoder 17 hours ago|||
People have a dozen reasons to refuse data centers being built in their communities and zero reasons to encourage it. They're little more than post-industrial mines that take limited resources (power, land, water, quiet) from a community, sell them for profit as compute, and siphon those profits away onto the books of far-flung megacorps with no community reward.

Meanwhile, golf courses are a traditional green space where people in a community gather for both work and leisure. They're not ideal themselves, but they at least provide some benefit against which their negatives can be weighed.

If all you hear from critics of data center building is water use complaints, that's strictly because you've chosen not to listen to people.

anuramat 17 hours ago|||
> data centers being built in their communities

> golf courses are a traditional green space where people in a community

I have a feeling those two sets of communities are disjoint

ekelsen 16 hours ago||||
How is this different from farming?

It takes the limited resources of land and water from a community and sells the result for profit as food or fuel. The vast majority of profit is made downstream and outside the community.

Golf courses being a traditional green place where people gather seems a bit far fetched to me when most of them are elite private clubs.

trollbridge 16 hours ago|||
Most golf courses around me are open and anyone can go play for a cheap greens fee. The clubhouse has normal low end restaurant prices for a hot dog or a burger.
ekelsen 16 hours ago||
If the clubhouse is your idea of the valuable public good we can provide without 18 holes of grass.
trollbridge 15 hours ago||
As far as "valuable", the golf course is private property that the owners presumably bought and can do with as they see fit. If you want to develop it into something else, make an offer to them?

The golf courses are a business like any other (although we do have some publicly-owned golf courses around here too). The cost to play 9 holes on a weekday is $10 at one of them. I'm not really sure what you're asking for here.

ekelsen 14 hours ago||
Data centers have negative externalities which is why people don't think anyone should just be able to buy land and turn it into one.

Once of those negative externalities is water usage. The parent was commenting on the also high water usage of golf courses.

Perhaps that's the connection you've missed.

trollbridge 13 hours ago||
That's highly dependent on the area it's in. Where I live, golf courses use no more water than anyone else and aren't irrigated.

The proper answer would be to simply charge appropriate prices for large scale uses of water from the water utility, or else this is a discussion about riparian rights and law and possible changes needed to that.

yosame 11 hours ago||||
People are more lenient on farming because humans need agriculture to survive. Obviously not all agriculture is necessary for survival, but it's something that in some way provides real tangible benefits for everyone.

On the other hand, if AI data centres all disappeared today, humanity would continue on completely fine.

ekelsen 2 hours ago||
The test of "if it disappeared today, we'd all be fine", would eliminate most of the economy.
shermantanktop 16 hours ago||||
I associate golf with WASP-y business types who hobnob with their boss in an electric cart to get ahead, and can't stop talking about their hobby of chasing a little white ball.

Is that fair? Probably not. But I don't think golf is a particularly inclusive sport, unless you live in a golf course gated community... in which case everyone is included.

mrdomino- 16 hours ago|||
In farming, the result is food that can be eaten.
ekelsen 16 hours ago|||
Golf courses don't do that either...
Aurornis 11 hours ago||||
> People have a dozen reasons to refuse data centers being built in their communities and zero reasons to encourage it.

This is, ironically, the NIMBYism that so many people hate.

People generally don't want anything built in their surroundings unless it directly benefits them and has no downsides, however low the impact.

marcosdumay 17 hours ago|||
When mines pay a sizeable share of their profits as local taxes, and obey environmental regulations, people suddenly start to like them.
swatcoder 17 hours ago||
Can you point to some examples of where that's happening?

These data centers are specifically being scouted for communities whose governance is too weak to negotiate for some "sizeable share of their profits" and too ill-prepared to have suitable environmental regulations on the books already. The Ivy League sharks planning these buildout initiatives are sharp people who are looking out for the interests of their employers and know how to pick locations where they have the best opportunity to exploit locals unprepared for their kind of esoteric deal-making, political lobbying, and lawfare. They'd be failing at their job if they did what you're suggesting, and that's why we don't really see that happen.

For any benefit to national or global society AI data centers might provide to someone, the buildout looks a lot like the dirty and exploitative stories of rail expansion in the 19th century. That rail infrastructure proved a good thing for the US, but that doesn't mean the process of making it happen was honest or good for the people immediately affected.

trollbridge 16 hours ago|||
This may sound crazy, but I’m glad the data centre being built near me (the new us-east-3) is being built by Amazon who pays lip service to local government and the community, as opposed to cartoon villain levels of saving a few pennies by forcing noise pollution on everyone else and everything else undesirable the other builders are doing.

Never thought I’d say that.

marcosdumay 16 hours ago||||
> Can you point to some examples of where that's happening?

You mean the AI datacenters doing it? No, they are not doing it.

They seem to be doing the opposite. They being loud is really hard to accept, decorrelating the fans cooling them would probably pay for itself in less than an year. It's like it's some Capitan Planet villain building those things.

swatcoder 16 hours ago||
Got it. I misunderstood you. Agreed.
WarmWash 16 hours ago|||
States give the tax incentives, local municipalities are cheap to buy out, that's why all these towns quickly pass approval. $30 million annually is pennies for a datacenter and a windfall for a town.
supern0va 17 hours ago||||
People are scared about the personal impact from AI, then backfill in justifications without even realizing they're doing it.

If the equivalent numbers for electricity and water usage were being being used for streaming video, I seriously doubt people would be demanding no more Netflix data centers. The news story would immediately die.

trollbridge 16 hours ago||
Nobody wants their electric rates to go up, the local water utility to have to raise rates to build a bigger plant, all in exchange for also losing good white collar jobs. That’s currently what AI data centre builders are selling.
supern0va 16 hours ago||
Not exactly. There are some data centers being built in places that don't have the power and water to support them, and obviously it's rational for the locals to oppose them.

But I live in a place where we have plenty of water and relatively cheap power (lots of renewables). There's not much risk to data center construction, but people are opposing it here, too. Because for most people, it's not actually about that.

trollbridge 15 hours ago||
An obvious question is if the cheap power is going to stay cheap after a large power-user comes in who has a proven track record of trying to make everything cheap for themselves with no regard for anyone else.

Or another question to ask is - how does this data centre benefit the people who live there? If it doesn't, there's no reason they should want one to be built. Rubbish tips are necessary. I still don't want one built next to my house and would fight such a thing tooth and nail.

supern0va 13 hours ago||
Here's a better question: as we've had nearly as large of a data center build-out happen between 2005 and 2020 for non-AI purposes, with similarly high electricity and water demands...where has the concern been? Why is it only in the last 2-3 years that people are suddenly up in arms, as a very specific application is being deployed?
trollbridge 12 hours ago||
The amount of data-centre construction is far more than it was 2-3 years ago.

There seems to be an alarmingly high amount of questionable data centre construction going on, such as projects being built in places with no access to power with an assumption they can somehow force the utility to provide it later. These buildouts seem to be being done for financial reasons (they are not Meta, Amazon, Azure, etc. facilities) with the hope to lease them out or sell them half-completed in the future. People rightfully don't want that kind of thing in their back yard.

To give a feel for the scale involved, this one (the new Amazon east DC) in my podunk area of the state is 250 MW (the existing us-east-2 in Columbus is 200 MW, although I'm not clear if this will be a new region or is just an additional availability zone). But that's small potatoes compared to the speculative project in Piketon, which amongst more absurd things is planned to be:

- 10 gigawatts (equal to 50% of current power consumption statewide) - "Modular" nuclear reactors built on site - 35,000 construction workers needed to build it (in a county with a total population less than that) - $30-$40 billion for the data centre, plus another $33 billion to build the 9 gigawatt natural gas electric plant - Meta agreeing to build an additional 1.2 GW nuclear plant on site - OpenAI in negotiations to lease the facility

This is a really big project, of the scale of "nothing like this has ever been done before". Nobody has ever built that much power generation at a single site before, nor has a datacentre this large ever been constructed. There is a very real risk of the project getting halfway done and then being unable to be completed. The prospect of a state literally doubling its electric generation is a bit ambitious, too (doing such means basically a complete revamp of the power distribution grid, or else some very novel designs to only use the power locally). For example, the normal type of shutoffs data centres have to prevent eg an incoming have are unacceptable in this situation because the grid cannot cope with 20 GW of demand suddenly disappearing.

dirtbag__dad 17 hours ago||||
Golf courses don’t have backup generators running 24/7, with humming you can hear from a meaningful distance away. They also don’t pollute the air.

This is a poor comparison, but I do get what you’re attempting here. It’s also absurd that we are leveling land everywhere around me to build warehouses. No one is really complaining about that, either.

lordgilman 14 hours ago||
A backup generator wouldn’t be running 24/7?
bluefirebrand 17 hours ago|||
People can care about more than one thing

Personally I would happily close down all golf courses and put them to better use as literally anything else.

Even just making them public parks would be great

mysterydip 17 hours ago|||
Coming in for a landing on a flight recently, I was amazed at the contrast I saw between a housing development of 50+ homes and a golf course across the road that took up the same amount of space.
trollbridge 16 hours ago||||
I attended an auction of a golf course a few years ago. It went for a few thousand an acre. You could have shown up and bid on it.

The winner ended up just choosing to keep the current employees and keep operating it. Nobody, I mean nobody, wanted the land for development. It was in an era with basically no zoning either.

viccis 15 hours ago||
No, in fact, most of us could not have just shown up and bid on it with any expectation of a meaningful outcome.
trollbridge 13 hours ago||
I'm saying that if you don't like how a golf course is being used, then attend an auction of one, because they are rapidly going out of business and the assets being auctioned off.

America is not suffering from too many golf courses being constructed. They are, rather, going extinct, and I don't really think the mass loss of green spaces and third spaces is necessarily a good thing, even though I'm not someone who enjoys playing golf and don't really spend any time at golf courses.

bluefirebrand 12 hours ago||
> I don't really think the mass loss of green spaces and third spaces is necessarily a good thing

Maybe we could make them public green spaces and third spaces, instead of exclusive clubs?

Many golf courses are really expensive. Golf itself is dying like you said, because it's a very expensive sport

Idk. There's something like 35 golf courses where I live in Calgary and it's a city of less than 2 million people. That seems super unnecessary to me and they don't seem to be going extinct here

trollbridge 4 hours ago||
There are also 132 Tim Horton's, which aren't "necessary" either, but people like having leisure activities. One golf course per 55,000 people doesn't seem that excessive either.
bluefirebrand 2 hours ago||
If you'll indulge me some armchair research and math

According to google AI, the average square footage of a Tim Hortons generally between 1000-2300 square feet, with some older locations taking up 2500 or more.

So let's assume every one of the 132 is an older location taking up 2500 square feet. That's 330,000 square feet, or 7.57 acres

According to the same AI, the smallest golf course in Calgary is:

Lakeview Golf Course: The city's smallest 9-hole executive course covers approximately 60 acres and features mostly par-3 and par-4 holes

60 acres!

Unless my numbers or math are wrong, Literally all of the Tim Hortons in the city can fit into the footprint of the city's SMALLEST golf course

These things aren't equivalent. Come on. We can use the space for golf courses for better things. :/

Edit: That's not even accounting for the fact that a single tim hortons probably serves more people in a couple of hours than many golf courses do in the course of an entire day.

akudha 16 hours ago||||
I don’t get the appeal of golf. Hitting a ball into a hole with a crooked stick? But hey, that is just my personal preference. People can play whatever sport they want, or do whatever they want and call it a sport.

That said, it would be nice if the so called sport didn’t take so much land, water etc. Especially in prime locations

throwup238 17 hours ago|||
People can pretend to care about more than one thing.

Whether they actually actively oppose those things to the point of impacting building permits, that's a completely different matter. It really doesn't take much legislation to make golf courses economically unviable and force them to close, especially if you've got enough population within 30 minutes to support 22 of them (I speak from experience, I helped write a water reclamation ordinance that shut down at least one in my SoCal city)

If anyone actually bothered to talk to their local reps instead of posting internet comments about how much they "care", they'd get something done. If they don't, their care is just a fart in the wind for all the good it will do.

trollbridge 16 hours ago|||
Russia and China aren’t the ones constantly telling us AI will put us all out of a job, here’s why that’s a good thing, and why the government should dedicate billions of dollars to incumbent AI providers.
headsman771 14 hours ago|||
Nothing makes me dismiss and distrust a person or organization faster than hearing them say "russia/china are funding {controversial_thing}"

Its boogeyman thinking.

sometimelurker 16 hours ago|||
source needed. I'm not saying ur wrong, but source needed
mangogogo 16 hours ago|||
Source or link?
sublinear 16 hours ago|||
What choice does that rag have? Of course they're going to backpedal and try to launder blame.
morpheos137 16 hours ago|||
Surprisingly enough the us constitution specifies a right to free speech. Meanwhile who is funding the past two decades of pie in the sky bullshit from silicon valley in the media? Is promoting and unpopular opinion illegal? Since when do we judge the merits of an argument based on who articulates it?
5701652400 4 hours ago||
"just get divident from govenment"

almost nothing about how wealth is distributed. hard to believe richest, greediest, most corrupt people will just gave away money to everyone.

start by opening borders. see how that goes.

not gonna happen.

captainmuon 7 hours ago||
Most AI alarmism benefits big tech itself. Either they want to create awe and thus demand for their products (see the recent dance around Mythos), or they want to create regulatory capture and increase the moat around AI.

Interestingly , we as a species already created an overreaching "cybernetic" system that controls our global society and that the individual is powerless against - it is not AI, but capitalism. Thus the current danger is not that AI becomes superintelligent and enslaves us, not that it makes a regime ultra-powerful, but that it increases economic inequality and concentrates economic power in the hands of even fewer people.

The irony is that new technology could allow us to live a life of abundance and leisure, but instead people are laid off, made unable to participate in the economy, etc.. The technology is (as so often) chafing against the bounds of society. I sometimes wonder what the superintelligent AI would say about this, and if it would come up with a completely novel political theory - "silly humans, why don't you just organise your affairs like this, you'd be much happier, and we could coexist much better: ...".

mattwiese 2 hours ago||
Ironically, the origin of "cognitive dissonance" as a concept is attributable to Leon Festinger who (with others) studied a UFO cult called The Seekers in the 1950s who believed in imminent apocalypse. As other commenters have noted, pushing the date back was inevitable. Time is a flat circle and we repeat the mistakes of our ancestors just with different coats of paint...
owenthejumper 4 hours ago|
The whole thing is unreadable, and laughable, just like AI2027 previously. It's really really hard to read someone suggesting that in the United States we will soon have a universal basic income of $1m / year for all people in the country, when you just look at the state of current politics...

I'd rather read something a little bit more realistic.

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