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Posted by kschaul 2 days ago

AI 2040: Plan A(ai-2040.com)
368 points | 476 commentspage 5
modeless 2 days ago|
This is dangerously naive and misguided. They claim to want to avoid centralization of control but propose a world police state of AI regulation. Governments exerting this much control will only end in war and tyranny.
icandoit 2 days ago||
If the production, and distribution of the tech is confined to one or two companies, then those two companies and the resulting power that comes to them, makes them the de facto world government. (Democratic choice may be a farce but it is a useful friction on net.)

If they own all the RAM, models, and the means to do any work, then you are at their mercy. They will buy all the RAM, leaving you none, then all the transport, then all the electricity. You will be as boxed out of the current economy as the Amish and it will get its plug pulled.

Gradual Disempowerment is the default plan right now. War and tyrrany are not remotely the worst case scenario. I'll take Butlerian Jihad over being turned into cattle any day.

Imagine solving for equilibrium with two classes of beings. One requires agricultural land and 20 years to become individually productive and barely maintains a healthy population in a entertainment saturated landscape. The second eats only electricity and is ready to work on day 1. Round 1 goes to the strongest gorilla for sure, round 100?

If LLMs had come to earth in spaceships would you have welcomed them into your work and your home?

BurningFrog 21 hours ago||
> If the production, and distribution of the tech is confined to one or two companies

We already have at least 5 companies only in the US. Your whole premise is false.

sometimelurker 20 hours ago||
> Governments exerting this much control will only end in war

elaborate. regulation -> war, how?

cyberpunk 2 days ago||
> Then, in the mid-2030s, they pause at AIs around the level of top human geniuses.

They being the US and China and by agreement.

It would be ideal, but there’s far too much money on the table to overcome human nature.

So my hope is we hit some kind of limits naturally.. Wishful thinking?

simonreiff 20 hours ago||
> Why exactly will AI never be able to do my job?

Because AI cannot retain memories or gain experience or insight based on the transformer/attention mechanism powering all modern AI models, it follows that AI lacks judgment and can never be trusted to handle truly critical decision-making responsibilities. Furthermore, AI agents lack any notion of an identity, so certainly are not capable of attaining legal personhood or being sued or fired, or owning property. I think slop burnout, cybersecurity, loss of privacy, even environment issues are far more concerning and real issues arising from AI than alignment or the prospect of mass labor displacement due to AI.

cyberax 20 hours ago|
> Because AI cannot retain memories or gain experience or insight based on the transformer/attention mechanism powering all modern AI models, it follows that AI lacks judgment and can never be trusted to handle truly critical decision-making responsibilities.

There are multiple teams working on adding long-term memory to AI. This is not a fundamental problem.

Fine-tuning to store memory in the weights is something that almost works right now, btw.

rarisma 19 hours ago||
I feel like we will end up with a future that equally disappoints everyone and is somehow not covered in any plan here.
armanckeser 7 hours ago||
I personally find AI doomsday preaching incredibly arrogant. You think that we will create super intelligence, something that will exponentially get smarter, and the thing it will do is... end humans? Why wouldn't it just find solutions to problems we struggle with? Also people don't live to work, its asinine to argue AI replacing jobs is the problem, obviously the problem is the gains being concentrated higher up. Another thing is, we argue AI needs to be maximally useful to everyone in the world, and the argument to do that is government control??? I would rather push for AI to be superintelligent faster than any one human can control it. Frankly human controlled superintelligence is likely a worse outcome then uncontrolled superintelligence, at the very least there is no guarantee one will be better than the other.
varispeed 5 hours ago||
Peak vibe code.
imsofuture 5 hours ago||
This is earnestly one of the stupidest things I've ever read.
blurbleblurble 16 hours ago||
Concentration of power is and was the problem
ReptileMan 6 hours ago||
One of the best comedies of the past decade got a sequel. That is all there is to say about that effort. The Europe 2031 also gets an honorable mention.
5701652400 2 hours ago|
so 2027 was supposed to be singulariy? lol
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