Posted by theanonymousone 8 hours ago
The US isn't without problems, but we're doing OK.
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
It's incredible that not a single person replying negatively has included a single piece of data.
Compare it to the Consumer Price Index:
If housing, healthcare and education are outpacing the topline inflation number, a lot of marginal families will be squeezed. The cheap LG TV doesn't really make up for it.
So the 1984 income is 60,420, if you calculate 60420 * (1.014)^40, which is assuming there's a 1.4% difference between the two disputed methodologies, you'd get about 105k. But the actual 2024 income is 83,730. Which I think means that if you take the non-CPI methodology to calculate real income growth, it's actually negative.
I'm not saying one method is more correct than the other (I don't know enough about economics to judge), but 1.4% annual difference matters a lot when you're talking about four decades.
I'm explaining why people are still squeezed despite the top line number saying they shouldn't be.
When data and anecdotes disagree, then double check the way you compile your data.
You assertion that CPI doesn't include housing is just wrong.
It's been like 5 years now of low consumer sentiment and increasing consumer debt while people who don't feel it are flabbergasted, the top line CPI number is fine, why aren't people happy?
You're missing the point, rest is included in that top line low inflation number.
> the top line CPI number is fine, why aren't people happy?
secular stagnation? Cultural malaise? Expectations formed by ZIRP.
I'd also point out that the US has seen better wage growth and less inflation in recent years than the rest of the OECD, by comparison we're doing OK-er than our peers.
I strongly dislike Donald Trump, and he has done some terrible things to our country. But my dislike of him also makes me more likely to notice the bad things happening around me.
It happens with conservatives too. Ask my conservative family about how frequently men pretend to be trans and go into women’s bathrooms to get a peek. Ask them how often non-citizens vote. Ask them how the current crime rate compares to when they grew up.
I have asked this question many times to the doomers, and honestly don’t think I’ve ever gotten a good answer: if you had to be born as a random human somewhere on earth, and the only thing you get to choose is the year in which you’re born, what year would you choose? You can’t choose your race, intelligence level, physical abilities, parents, socioeconomic status, country, gender, sexual orientation, etc. Only the year.
So doomers: if the world is completely fucked up and going down the tubes, when would you prefer to have been born? Huge bonus if you can actually give some data showing that the average human was better off during whatever time you choose.
M2 change is a much better measure in my opinion. Using M2 is literally comparing supply of item to supply of cash which could immediately buy it. When scaling SPX or GC1! by M2SL[0]/M2SL, you get a surprisingly flat time series over decades, which reads to me that the effects of the change in M2 are being filtered out of an otherwise exponential price curve.
You might argue that Americans are just less capable of supporting themselves but I reject that argument firmly. The situation really reads like systemic causes. And I think cherry picking numbers to convince ourselves otherwise does more harm than good.
Placing an arbitrary person on the curve at the right place will show their relative position on this.
There’s a reason a large amount of the complaints are things like “my DoorDash is so much more expensive” and “my insta cart bill is so much higher”.
In the ideal state for the text writing middle and upper middle class, the mostly video consuming lower classes make very little money and provide services for cheap.
One should expect that enriching the poor upsets those whose relative wealth/income is no longer as high as it used to be. I imagine we could test this by comparing p75, p90 to p10 and p50
For my part I am optimistic. So many things today are so much cheaper and better than they used to be. Looking forward to the future - with the one caveat that AI is the precipitous ridge we must walk.
Real income means inflation adjusted, so we actually see the median income outpacing inflation right now.
> More people outside employment than COVID or Great Recession
There's a lot going on here. One factor is that many people retired early during the pandemic and are going to skew this stat. It's also worth pointing out that the labor force participation rate is ~62% and peaked historically at 67%, so it's not that far off.
> Are you ignorant or propaganda peddler
This is needlessly inflammatory.
Only 5.3% of US workers have multiple jobs. The long term average is just above 5%. So it is false to claim more workers have multiple jobs according to BLS stats. This number was above 6% for most of the 1990s.
Yes. The FRED data includes informal employment. They do months and months of exhaustive surveys all of the country to put together their data.
> You quote unemployment numbers without admitting that people who have given up or simple failed to land a job are not included in those numbers.
No, I included data about labor force participation, which is only down a little.
> The numbers are gamed
Prove it.
My favorite way to gauge historical prices/data is to scale it with M2:
(TradingView): M2SL[0]/M2SL*TICKER
Replace M2SL[0] with the latest M2 value. 23.05 T should be 23.05*10^12.
Compare SPX, GC1!, SI1!, CL1!, or any other TICKER you can think of!
Another cool little model I like to look at which starkly shows the loss of power for us little guys:
(TradingView): 23.05*10^12/M2SL*A4102C1Q027SBEA/(USPOP*CIVPART/100)
Basically in 1960 the average worker earned 3x the purchasing power from their wages compared to today.
TL;DR: Ron Paul was right!
Life expectancy dipping for any develop country, even if temporary, is an embarrassing catastrophe.
There's also I2PSnark, Hyphanet, and others!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_v._United_States
On July 1, 2024, the Court ruled in a 6–3 decision that presidents have absolute immunity for acts committed as president within their core constitutional purview, at least presumptive immunity for official acts within the outer perimeter of their official responsibility, and no immunity for unofficial acts.[5][6][7][8] The court declined to rule on the scope of immunity for some acts alleged of Trump in his indictment, instead vacating the appellate decision and remanding the case to the district court for further proceedings.
Their inability to find a backbone helps them contort to whatever Trump babbles that day, even if privately they know something is idiotic or illegal.
If you want a prime example, look at how Thom Tillis suddenly finds the ability to speak out once he lost his primary.
What it would do is have an instant chilling effect across Corporate America, which is the goal.
Why? We already know Trump often acts without legal authority, and just as often without consequence. Those thoughtful questions have been asked and answered many times, why do we need to ask them again?