Posted by willcarkner 4 hours ago
The US produced 30% of PCBs globally in 2000, now they produce 4%. Chinese manufacturers have completely dominated this space at 55% of global production.
Now, the need for a domestic PCB supply chain is higher than ever before, yet the infrastructure has been dissolving over the last 2 decades. What is left is mostly small family run manufacturers (CMs) that have been operating in largely the same, labor intensive way since the early 2000’s.
When you place an order through a CM it typically takes several days to receive a quote and complete design for manufacture review, and then you have to source all of the components (the hardest part) and bare boards yourself, then wait anywhere from a few days to several weeks for the assembly and testing of those boards.
We started off assembling circuit boards out of a garage with prosumer grade equipment (NeoDen YY1, Glenbrook X-ray, solder paste stencils, and manual rework stations). We believed that by owning the manufacturing process, we could turn all the front of house automations inwards. But here’s the thing… manufacturing circuit boards with prosumer grade equipment out of a garage takes a huge amount of time. Suddenly we were spending 90% of our time assembling circuit boards instead of growing the business. We were completely capacity constrained, with fancy software automations that are not the binding constraint at low volumes.
Then we got our heads out of the weeds, took a step back, and realized that we were trying to solve the wrong bottlenecks.
These manufacturers are good at manufacturing and terrible at the front of house (quoting, DFM review, and part procurement). When you look at the full process, you realize that assembly is not the bottleneck. So we stopped trying to solve the problem that we can’t solve at this stage.
We measured the bottlenecks and nailed down the ones that we are best positioned to solve right now.
When a customer wants a domestically manufactured circuit board, it is not a straight forward process. We are making that process easy through front of house automation. A customer gives us their design files, and we automatically procure components, and co-ordinate bare board fabs and assembly houses to get quotes, design review, and manufacturing completed in a very tight loop.
How we solve part procurement (you can’t assemble boards with no parts!): When a user places an order with us, our system automatically sources their bill of materials across US and overseas distributors. However, when we work with customers during the design process, our plug-ins interact with KiCAD and Altium, sending the BOM to our ordering platform, which allows us to automatically procure components before layout is finalized.
KiCAD plugin: (https://github.com/proven-metal/provenmetal-kicad)
Altium plugin: (https://github.com/proven-metal/provenmetal-altium)
This enables us to order long lead time parts in advance, suggest alternatives if parts are out of stock, and solve the biggest bottleneck in the process. We store parts in our hq in SF, and then kit the boards and route them through our network. We also do long term storage of parts for long lead time items.
How we solve endless emails: Every manufacturer wants the same information in a different shape. There’s usually a few days of back and forth emailing to achieve clarity. We’re building a profile per manufacturer and sending the order to fit their requirements. This may sound trivial but it removes a multi-day round trip on most orders, which on a quick-turn build is a meaningful share of the time.
How to solve design review: Each manufacturer has individual capability sheets, and so we have a heuristic harness that Fable 5 uses to check the board for DFM issues. We’re building a streamlined process for end-to-end pcb manufacturing, but is that enough to solve the supply chain? Not a chance. Capacity is the problem, and no amount of smart software will solve it. We’re extracting real slack from the system today, that slack is finite, and at some volume the only remaining move is adding physical capacity. We think that’s where this goes.
We charge a simple margin on the order value depending on order complexity with fully transparent quote breakdowns. We took our first paying order in less than a week and we’ve done roughly $70k across 11 orders in 6 weeks.
We are very interested in your opinion. We’re working in a problem space that has problems everywhere, we’re constantly pulled in wild directions regarding which problems we solve and how we go about solving them. What do you know that we can learn from?
Quick turn in the US is 2 to 4 days.[1] That's expensive but available.
[1] https://www.surfacemountsolutions.com/services/quick-turn-pc...
I’ve been making hardware for 20 years. My highest-volume product was Flybrix, a LEGO drone kit manufactured by Seeed and UniPrecision in China and by Sparqtron in Fremont, California. I’d be happy to work with you on a v2 reboot: Flybrix Swarmz, because every American high school needs a drone swarm.
Beyond that, I’ve worked with many domestic suppliers and built ITAR-controlled products as well. Even without owning the production capacity, if you can offer Net 90 on fabrication and extend credit for components--beyond existing DigiKey, Arrow, Mouser, and vendor credit lines--then I can build products and get paid without putting all the capital at risk upfront.
Factoring is expensive, especially against a purchase order rather than an invoice, and I don’t know of anyone offering working-capital credit based solely on an SBIR award.
Credit is what makes the spice flow.
1. Line of credit - we are not billed until we take delivery of tested product. 2. Willingness to handle high mix, low volume products. One product line example: a dozen SKUs with 95-98% parts in common on 2 PCBs, a single set of parts (that we aren't billed for up front) and quoting to build 20 of SKU 1, 50 of SKU 2, 10 of SKU 3, etc. without charging 2-3x the price.
We manufacture in the research / test equipment / defense space and I've heard similar things from other small hardware companies that are like us.
I recently priced out getting a PCB done in China and its insanely cheap. My design isnt complicated, a few ICs, a few connectors, an a dozen or so passives. PCB manufacturing, parts, and soldering/assembly is on the order of $10-20 total per board and that is with zero volume discounts. The parts alone would cost that much in the US, and I suspect the sort of companies that you contract out to also aren't really interested in tiny orders so they would probably quote huge setup fees (looks like your average order so far is ~$7000).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berry_Amendment
More specifically there are a number of new wide-spanning bans on import of mainland china made drone components such as flight controller boards, ESCs, power distribution boards, motors.
The definition of "Blue UAS" pre-dates recent more aggressive changes made by the current US executive branch of the government, but is still relevant:
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=blue+UAS+...
One example I could offer is APD, the ESC manufacturer in Australia. They sell ESCs used both in the commercial cinema/filming industry (big quads and coaxial octos carrying RED Komodo size cameras), but also for defense...
2) What they already are good at they'll continue to improve at, because of domain knowledge & ecosystem
3) The reason they are ahead in the first place is labor cost & the QOL workers will tolerate (and intentional government investment)
4) The only way around this is for the US to invest into robotics (labor) & subsidize american manufacturing (ecosystem)
That hasn't been accurate in a decade. Chinese labor costs have been higher than Mexico since before Covid. They have more efficient firms, business processes and so much more. The parenthesized "(and intentional government investment)" is related to how they developed nimbler systems, but ignores the totality of industrial policy.
We have two options, give up and allow China to control all production, or start the hard battle to improve manufacturing here.
But to (very slightly!) paraphase you, you think it's important to focus on drones/defense and other nationalist areas where the future is canted toward you, and while that is not an area I'd enjoy working in myself (no personal judgement on you, but I'd rather spend my life doing things other than conflict and war), that is clearly what you know to be your first-rank business chance.
Also, I did mention back in 2020 that drones are the only practical type of robotics compared to others, although I meant for good purposes not how they are used right now.
If they had a fast production run in they could extend to 24 hours operation and triple base capacity.
They did a fair bit of TH though which was manually stuffed and wave soldered which could slow stuff down considerably.
It’s not like PCB boards in the defense industry are somehow special, though they probably should be.
I would disagree? Look at Helsing, the german manufacturer of loitering munitions, and its direct competitors who are trying hard to get per-unit costs way down. Without even mentioning the myriad of Ukrainian manufacturers who are building cheap and cheerful things under $10,000 per unit (or even under $2500 per unit). There is a very real push within all NATO militaries now to basically copy many of the capabilities the Ukrainians have built in the last 4-5 years.
Not saying that we won't still have lots of huge dollar items and massive programs like the AGM-158 JASSM, but there's a reason why the US paid a company to basically clone the Shahed-136 as the LUCAS at under $50k per unit.
The bottleneck in assembling a PCB is usually component sourcing. My product was not the most complicated, and even then, to assemble in Shenzhen, China, it often took a few weeks to get all the components.
The core issue here is that latency is determined by the outliers. Assembly can't start until you have all units, and the hardest to source one is the bottleneck!
To me, the core innovation here is to plug into the design software to source these long tail items ahead of time.
It's pretty interesting that usually when the PCB is being designed, the designer has no awareness of supply chain. They'll bake in a chip that has a 4 week lead time without even realizing it, when a similar component might be one cent more expensive with much faster lead time.
Currently there's a wall between the designer and the manufacturer, which hurts lead times massively, we're aiming to bring that down.
> When you look at the full process, you realize that assembly is not the bottleneck.
I’m confused, which one is it?
I assume the growth story isn’t great when you factor in the non-automatable tasks and big capital outlays, so your product leaves that to existing CMs and scales the software stack instead?
Do you see this product as being beneficial to subcontractors (presumably still doing the 90% manual work), or does this legitimately reduce the actual workload/costs at the production level?
This is something that takes real expertise though, kind of a moonshot for an inexperienced team unfortunately. Would be cool if had mission driven backers otherwise will just end up being hobbyist material. Relying on defense (bubble?) gives at least some breathing room as not actually competing against china for better prices.
We believe starting with defense will give us capabilities that we can then bring to other verticals, and will help us make optimizations that bring the cost down. It's impossible to beat china off the bat though.
When my pal’s raw PCB company went out of business, you could buy a finished PCB from China for less than the cost of FR4, which also came from China. How do you intend to address this supply chain risk? Once China raises your cost of raw PCBs your price argument no longer works.
Also, are you sourcing components from US sources or using China? Recently I stopped purchasing from Digikey and Mouser because their services are much slower than they used to be, and I now get components much faster and for lower cost in China.
> How do you intend to address this supply chain risk?
Haven't yet figured it out. Options are opening bare board fabs or partnering with US fabs and panelizing orders.