I agree that the computing power will replace not just softwares and also as many phycial work via robots. I am not smart enough to see further what else are disposable or replaceable

> the biggest one is - we will have to attain a baseline intelligence which is useful for everyone which is not true today

That's not the biggest assumption.

The biggest assumption I see is that the population will have the baseline understanding of how to operate in this new paradigm, which seems impossible given how useless many people still are with computers

Incidentally, this is also why I think Bitcoin is such a non-starter for most people

Does it have to be scarce for it to become a currency? It just needs to be regulated which I think it will be.

Their business models are actually kind of similar. Stripe is just passing money between financial institutions and taking a small cut. OpenRouter is basically the same thing. They might have shared ability on how to run an effective pass through business.

My read: The thesis is that token spend is going to be one of the larger input costs to a business in the future. They want token economics to happen on their platform so that the commission that comes out of all of this goes to them. It is not enough that openrouter uses stripe exclusively to interact with banks, since the transactions are expected to not just be tokens for dollars, but tokens for tokens or tokens for specific stablecoins tied to tokens. One of the value adds of stripe is their policy and monitoring layer. With tokens, the polices and monitoring will happen in token-land primarily, not in dollars-land. So if you want to continue demanding commission for those types of things, you have to be able to execute policies on tokens. Tokens can of course be variably priced - I am not claiming # tokens itself has the same value across providers.

The platform also has another value that is not mentioned often. People often mention the devex, which is consumer value. But one of the main things about open router is that they help model providers access a massive distribution channel with smooth demand, as with any aggregator. Similar to the value food delivery apps provide to restaurants. As such, this type of marketplace power has the potential to allow them to charge model providers commissions as well for various services in the future. You can already almost imagine an "auto mode" where they balance improvements to cx (say right sized models for tasks, saving u money) with "ad"/preferential treatment promises tomodel providers. Basically, all the typical middleman stuff.

One of the other companies in this space, ramp, has also started their own router at router.com. See https://x.com/tryramp/status/2090146780512227825

Quoting their rumored leaked investor letter dated Aug 19 26 below:

Zooming out, we see capital and intelligence are becoming the two digital flows undergirding every business. Up until now, every developer has needed a straightforward and reliable way to manage their revenue pipeline, and serving this need gave rise to Stripe. Going forward, however, every developer will also need a straightforward and reliable way to manage their intelligence pipeline. This observation first led us to OpenRouter. OpenRouter has built the world's largest and most trusted token routing engine, supporting all major models and providers, and beloved by its customers....We think that there are deeper reasons to pursue integration besides convenience. Our experience in working with our customers has led us to realize that intelligence is special: it is expensive, heterogeneous, and constantly changing. As with financial capital, businesses must reason about cost and return of every unit in a deliberate and granular way. How valuable is this task? With which models can it be best handled? Who will pay, and when, and what is the time-value of that delay? We have seen the parallels between managing intelligence and managing capital directly in our own products. Radar, for example, was initially designed to prevent financial fraud, but is proving extremely effective at guarding against token fraud at many of the world's largest A1 companies. Metronome (used by Anthropic, Nvidia, and other industry leaders) is showing that metered billing in an AI context is inseparable from token serving and consumption itself.