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Posted by bookofjoe 19 hours ago

Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives(spectrum.ieee.org)
366 points | 639 commentspage 5
erelong 12 hours ago|
idk if this was even part of the conversation tbh

The question was if they could remain secure

Also I saw people suggest rc cars as an alternative to autonomous vehicles which... is another consideration entirely as well

motoboi 15 hours ago||
Autonomous vehicles don’t drink and drive. That alone will save millions worldwide yearly.
ErroneousBosh 12 hours ago|
Most people don't drink and drive.

It's really only in the US where people still seem to think it's acceptable to drive drunk.

motoboi 10 hours ago||
2nd cause of deaths in cars in the world and in the US too. Top of the list is speeding.
ks2048 18 hours ago||
In the modern USA, "saving lives" is anti-correlated with policy, so let's see how this plays out.
whatever1 12 hours ago||
Taxis also save lives. The lives of those who drive drunk.
jmward01 15 hours ago||
It has been, from the start and even before FSD had any basis in reality and was just sci-fi stories, obvious that FSD would eventually get here. The only question has been when. We clearly aren't there yet but it is pretty obvious we aren't as far away as the naysayers make out.

I want FSD, but I want it on consumer terms. Safety is only one aspect and it is the one constantly brought up. It is important, but in the long term it will be solved and the more important things will remain. Concepts of privacy, ownership and access will be the real issues of the future and should be the most important discussions about FSD, and transportation in general, now. If we allow FSD to go the rout it appears it is going, car companies requiring you forfeit you privacy, subscriptions and not ownership and companies clearly demonstrating their first attempts at gating access by advertising where you should go and emphasizing where they don't want you to go, then the FSD future we are being led to is a dystopian mistake.

You may not believe FSD will ever get here but I think it is easy to see the direction car companies are pushing things. I am happy to see safety is being solved but I would rather see a major push towards a FSD future that is more like a 1950's space opera than a 2000's tech dystopia.

lelanthran 14 hours ago||
Agreed.

I didn't even take the insurance monitor they offered because the difference in cost turned out to be something stupidly low (like a saving of $1/month, or similar).

I don't want my car monitored, I don't want my movements monitored, and I certainly don't want my car reliant on the continuing goodwill of some upstream provider.

They need to sort out the software and privacy implications before I'm biting, especially as my personal accident history beats current SDV anyway: over a million kilometers with a single accident.

Gigachad 14 hours ago|||
Self driving can be safer even if it's less competent because it can just be programed to be more risk adverse, always keep safe stopping distances and slow down when the conditions are adverse. A human driver _might_ be more skilled in driving through a snow storm but the self driving car just slows down and ends up safer.

Most drivers take absurd risks that negate any possible skill advantage.

toasty228 14 hours ago||
We've done(ish) the first 80%: long straight roads and grid cities in south USA getting 350 days of sun per year.

The last 20% will be tough. There are 1.3b vehicules in the world, most of the aren't in the US, most places will need a complete infrastructure revamp before autonomous cars can even dream to drive there

bluecalm 8 hours ago||
People kill and hurt others in cars for many reasons but the main ones are:

-being dangerous on purpose (speeding, ignoring signs, tailgating etc.)

-being inattentive (phones, screens in general, being tired, being sleepy)

-road raging in many forms

As evidenced by comments in this thread and elsewhere people also have terrible judgement about reality on the roads - blaming cyclists, justifying speeding etc.

Self-driving cars remove all those from the equation. It would be shocking if they didn't save lives. We put too high a bar on them. It's a life saving tech and we should put them on the road yesterday and go from there.

n0us 19 hours ago||
Growing proof that PR for autonomous car companies has aligned on a strategy of painting you as a bad person if you want to drive your own car, and therefore you should pay them money to continue being a good person.
bko 19 hours ago||
Growing proof that comment sections from tech forums have been overrun with unhelpful negativity unrelated to the actual posts they're commenting on.
entropi 18 hours ago|||
You are dismissing this as "unhelpful negativity", but are not addressing in any way the obvious (and rather malicious, I would say) PR play that parent comment points out.

This is exactly the message, and I for one welcome the anti-cool-aid sentiments being very visible in public spaces.

jasode 18 hours ago|||
>the obvious (and rather malicious, I would say) PR play that parent comment points out.

The author Lawrence Ulrich references research from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Why would it be "obvious" that they are paid PR shills for Tesla/Waymo?

I'm jaded and cynical so I can accept that they may be secret PR mouthpieces but isn't it reasonable to expect a little evidence rather than just throwing out a random accusation?

cucumber3732842 18 hours ago||
IIHS works for the insurance industry who will happily throw you under the bus if it makes things more predictable on their side. Not better, not lower claims, more predictable.

The alignment between what is good for you and good for the interests they answer two is not all that much.

But of course, they work very hard to market themselves as peddlers purely of safety, after all only a barbarian would be against safety <mockingly clutches pearls>

This isn't to say that some people they don't care, but giving a crap isn't gonna change the incentives.

Apocryphon 16 hours ago|||
How do using autonomous vehicles benefit their claims-settling? Wouldn't it make it unpredictable- in an accident between two self-driving vehicles, who is liable? What if both vehicles are from the same company? Doesn't this lead to extreme variability?
throwaway198846 16 hours ago|||
Whould they? If things are too predictable they would be out of job.
SR2Z 18 hours ago||||
Can you actually define what the kool-aid is here? Because AV companies are saying "look at this new product, it objectively drives better and safer than a human, you don't have to deal with a human driver, it works 24/7, and in our experience most people prefer it to driving."

I have NEVER seen a single person accuse anyone of being a bad person for still preferring to drive a car manually. Not once, not even the usual one or two crazy people you can find to support almost any other crazy statement.

Where is the kool-aid from the robotaxi side that's so visible? Keep in mind that "kool-aid" implies that something is factually incorrect.

BoingBoomTschak 18 hours ago|||
> I have NEVER seen a single person accuse anyone of being a bad person for still preferring to drive a car manually

Just read further in this thread, will you?

SR2Z 15 hours ago||
Yeah I have. I still don't see it, I do see a lot of unwarranted cynicism and extremely sloppy arguments against these cars.
quadrifoliate 18 hours ago|||
> "look at this new product, it objectively drives better and safer than a human, you don't have to deal with a human driver, it works 24/7, and in our experience most people prefer it to driving."

A lot of these are true about other things like pedestrian-friendly streets, bike lanes, and mass rail transit. The kool-aid is that the robotaxi people act like they are the first one to solve this problem.

SR2Z 15 hours ago|||
No, dammit.

Pedestrian friendly streets are great! You can't walk that far, and I love walking places when I have time and energy.

Bike lanes are great! I bike to work. If I'm not careful I'll arrive sweaty, and that inherently limits when and where I bike.

Mass rail transit is great! It cannot get directly to every door or frequently even to within walking distance of every door (I take a train to the office when I don't wanna bike).

I really do understand that it's trendy to hate on cars. There are a lot of bad things that come with car dependence.

All of that is true AND YET cars make us more productive and allow us to do things that would be impossible otherwise.

Robotaxi companies are not trying to replace any of those things. That makes no sense because they don't need to do that to succeed.

So I will ask again: what is the kool-aid that I'm supposedly drinking?

thereisnospork 17 hours ago|||
"everyone" still drives -- the problem has very much not yet been solved.

Could it be solved in other ways? Sure, but it hasn't. Why it hasn't is an interesting question but that's out of scope.

bko 18 hours ago|||
Saying an article is just PR, without addressing the specific article is not helpful.

Argue how the author was funded by such and such a group with ties to this other group. Say something about the methodology used. Say literally anything about the actual post.

This would be the equivalent of me just calling you a "shill" with no other context. The burden of proof is on you since you're making the claim that this is misleading PR.

ThrowawayTestr 19 hours ago|||
[flagged]
anonymars 15 hours ago||
Always has been

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#:~:text=Ple...

CM30 19 hours ago|||
Yeah, and it should not be understated how bad only having autonomous cars would be for privacy and security conscious folk.

A lot of the time you don't own them, so they're operating on the terms provided by the companies and government, even when it's directly against your own interests. The idea of a car that can't drive certain places, be used at a certain time or be used by certain people feels like a terrifying inevitability, and one which society should refuse at all costs.

If you drive your own vehicle, it goes where you want it to go. If you don't drive your own vehicle, it goes where a company or government wants it to go.

nwah1 15 hours ago|||
Given the state of cybersecurity, the car goes wherever anyone with sufficient motivation wants it to go. Including into pedestrians. And, such a scenario could happen at the scale of a botnet swarm. In other words, hundreds of thousands of vehicles could be simultaneously hijacked.
tqi 18 hours ago||||
"If you drive your own vehicle, it goes where you want it to go"

I think privacy conscious folks like yourself consistently overrate how much purchase this argument has. I am perfectly happy to forgo this in exchange for a sufficient increase in convenience / safety (for myself and others). This is not because I have been brainwashed by autonomous vehicle company propaganda, it is because I have different values and concerns.

SR2Z 18 hours ago|||
So you mean to tell me that when I called a Waymo a few weeks ago at 1AM because I was drunk at a bar and wanted to go home, it was actually because my government and Google wanted me to go home?

Woah! This conspiracy goes deeper than I thought! Next you'll tell me that a taxi ride requires mutual consent between me, the taxi driver, and the dispatch company!

atleastoptimal 19 hours ago|||
You cannot deny the evidence though, driverless cars are safer per-mile than human drivers on average. 1/100 deaths in the United States are due to car accidents, even shaving off 10% of those would save ~4000 people per year.
foobarian 19 hours ago|||
But.. what if it's true? It's like not wearing a seat belt, or smoking, or drinking while driving. If AV are widely available it becomes similarly opt-in high risk behavior.
entropi 18 hours ago||
Using SUVs are definitely worse for safety as well, and it does not require a huge overhaul of the transportation infrastructure, a few new technologies to be invented, replacing ~all the existing cars, etc. etc. But no-one takes the comparatively basically free steps to remove/reduce SUVs.

Lets not forget that its all about the profits, and if we truly want to save lives there are more cost-efficient ways than what some tech sales-people peddle.

Kiro 18 hours ago|||
Your us vs them mentality regarding cars is really strange. You've previously said you think bicyclists are the "worst people".
tikhonj 18 hours ago|||
If driving is dangerous and carries a bunch of negative externalities, shouldn't we expect "good people" to look for alternatives? Not self-driving cars, necessarily, but maybe transit and walking and biking.

And, of course, to support the policy choices that reduce how much we subsidize driving and improve infrastructure for those alternatives.

sp1nningaway 17 hours ago|||
I hadn't thought about it like this, but I think I want the grassroots version of the PR campaign. Society was finally able to rein in smoking when we collectively realized how dangerous secondhand smoke is. People who smoked indoors and exposed loved ones to an early death weren't bad people, but creating societal pressure to feel bad about doing that has saved a lot of lives.

You are more likely to kill someone driving your huge SUV than you are taking a Waymo. Driving your own car certainly doesn't make you a bad person, but I hope self-driving cars will be ubiquitous and safe in the future. When that happens, choosing to drive yourself will be a selfish act, just like exposing people to secondhand smoke is now.

structural 15 hours ago||
At a systems level, transportation is something we have to be very, very careful about, because if you get it wrong, you start excluding entire groups of people from being a functional part of your society just because they are different from you in where and how they live.

"When that happens, choosing to drive yourself will be a selfish act, just like exposing people to secondhand smoke is now." Really? I drive on logging roads a few times a month to get to some property. This is pretty sketchy even in good conditions and there's always the chance of getting stuck and having to hike a mile or two the rest of the way up to go get the tractor and sort it out. I'm probably not buying a self-driving car any time soon, if ever.

Now, is having self driving taxis a fantastic idea in a very dense city? Of course. There's huge benefits in keeping the average car as safe, efficient in both energy and pollution, and highly utilized as possible. Are these also a good retrofit to dense-ish suburbs where a bus/rail network isn't quite enough (and the costs to build it in already-developed land are unpalatable)? Also yes. But that's not ubiquitous, that's just part of a larger system that needs to be able to serve all users.

And if your point is that "move out of the mountains and into a city because that's the less-selfish option"... that's a certain kind of political statement, I guess.

parapsychic 19 hours ago|||
Reminds me of that scene from I Robot where Will Smith was not supposed to drive his car himself.
4d4m 18 hours ago||
Didn't this just happen in an internet company's self driving car with couple kidnappings in the past month? (They were done according to the companies terms of service is what the internet company says if I remember reading correctly)
jjordan 19 hours ago|||
There should be laws put in place to ensure drivers will always be able to drive their cars, if they choose, and also prevent insurance companies from skyrocketing your rates for doing so. This is IMO past due.
jedberg 19 hours ago|||
Why? Insurance companies use detailed risk data. If they discover that letting you drive your own car is a much higher risk than an auto-drive, why should they not be allowed to account for that?

Insurance companies aren't political -- they charge for whatever costs more.

jjordan 18 hours ago|||
Yes, I definitely trust insurance companies to do the right thing here.
jedberg 18 hours ago||
Car insurance companies have their problems, but pricing risk is not one of them.

We saw this before -- they used to charge people who lived in high crime areas more money. They had to stop because it turned out that those high crime areas also had a lot of poor people, so the government stepped in and stopped allowing pricing by zip code.

But the insurance companies weren't wrong about the risk -- those customers cost them more. So instead they had to raise everyone's rates to account for the fact that they (rightly) could not discriminate.

I suspect the same would happen here. That poorer people could not afford self driving, and they same anti-discrimination rules would apply.

tredre3 12 hours ago||
> Car insurance companies have their problems, but pricing risk is not one of them.

If pricing risk was an exact science, you'd get the same quote from all providers (given similar coverage). Yet if you try that, you'll find that the quotes could vary as much as 2-3x. Therefore no, we shouldn't blindly trust "the algorithm".

salawat 18 hours ago|||
>Insurance companies aren't political -- they charge for whatever costs more.

Insurance companies you are required to interact with by law are absolutely political.

jedberg 15 hours ago||
I meant they aren't political in their pricing. They don't charge less or more for something because it is considered liberal or conservative.
intrasight 19 hours ago||||
I agree with your first statement but certainly not with the second. Rates for human drivers should and will skyrocket. Individual states may try to push back with regulation but it won't succeed in the long-term
lefra 19 hours ago|||
Rates for human drivers are currently at the correct level for insurance companies to pay for damage and make some profit.

If autonomous cars result in less damage than humans, their insurance price will be cheaper than human drivers, but there's no reason to raise the human rate at the same time, their accident rate should stay the same.

lelanthran 15 hours ago|||
> If autonomous cars result in less damage than humans, their insurance price will be cheaper than human drivers, but there's no reason to raise the human rate at the same time, their accident rate should stay the same.

Wouldn't the accident rate for humans go down as well as the percentage of SDV increase? After all, the humans won't be exclusively having accidents with each other.

intrasight 17 hours ago||||
I don't think you're seeing the future trajectory. Autonomous cars and trucks will be able to do their thing with a much smaller margin for error - because they don't make errors. So for example instead of two seconds distance to the car in front of you it will be 0.1 second. The vast majority of humans would have an accident as soon as they got on the road.

We need that increase volume and reduced accident count in order to grow without having to build more roads.

structural 15 hours ago||
Great, so when a deer jumps into the middle of the highway the size of the ensuing pileup is twenty times larger. I don't particularly think we should use technology to push efficiency to the point where a mechanical failure, a material failure, or an unexpected object cause much larger scale catastrophes than exist today.

Why not aim for the same distance between cars and twenty times more safety instead?

intrasight 14 hours ago||
Because traffic volume.

Autonomous cars won't panic and cause pileups.

structural 14 hours ago||
The way to prevent pileups is not to assume that everything will work correctly, including every system on every car.

It's to assume that every single thing that could break, will break, and design enough resiliency in that you have to stack up as many failures as possible before things truly go off the rails.

So to do this without killing people, you add the new systems with the same safety thresholds, then gather quite a few years of statistics, then, slowly let things become more efficient if that's both warranted by data and also warranted by simulation of events that you do not yet have data for.

Skipping steps in this because you want to put more cars on the road immediately is foolish and dangerous.

intrasight 11 hours ago||
I agree with all that. Robot cars will take time and we shouldn't skip steps. Tort lawyers will continue to keep companies inline.
mossTechnician 18 hours ago|||
They have a reason: profit.
FeloniousHam 17 hours ago||
This is testable. The profits of car insurance companies should rise (let’s say substantially) in real dollars as accident payouts decrease as a result of the inevitable dominance of autonomous vehicles.
jjordan 18 hours ago||||
Why should they skyrocket? As more autonomous vehicles appear on the roads, incidents with non-autonomous vehicles will go down. Driving will become inherently safer.
alecbz 18 hours ago|||
In the long-long-term, self-driving will get good enough and people will be relying on it so thoroughly that allowing people to drive on their own, with barely any practice, will probably be more risky than it's worth. In say, idk, 100 years (probably sooner), I doubt people will be able to drive their own cars in the way they do today.
SR2Z 15 hours ago||
The overwhelming majority of bad driving is caused by alcohol and other drugs, drowsiness, and inattentive driving.

Sober, well-rested human beings who pay full attention to the road are surprisingly good drivers, to the point where I'm not actually sure that robotaxis can reliably beat them yet.

Yeah, a hundred years from now fewer people will drive themselves, but considering how many people DESPISE driving and only do it because it's required of them, that isn't bad.

raincole 19 hours ago||||
There should be laws taxing people who insist on driving themselves. And the money should be used to subsidize people who switch to self-driving or install automatic assisted systems on their old cars. That'd partially mitigate the externality generated by human drivers.
bluGill 18 hours ago||
How about prison for attempted murder?

I've lost enough friends to drivers who made a mistake. If self driving is better in just that, but worse every other way: I'm for it.

That might be a big if above, but of true them I support it. Drive on a private track or a video game if you must. Leave the real world to safe.

linkregister 19 hours ago||||
Incumbent rent-seekers want regulatory capture to insulate them from externalities. Dog bites man.
iknowstuff 19 hours ago||||
No there should not. Human drivers kill a million people every year. WW1 killed 15-22M.
pessimizer 19 hours ago||||
The law put into place would be that the people who put autonomous cars on the road would risk their freedom and safety just as much as a driver if that car causes an accident through their neglect.

This will never happen, because the entire purpose of the corporate structure is to avoid responsibility.

matchbok3 19 hours ago|||
How selfish. Why should I, someone who wants a safer AV, subsidize those who are riskier drivers?

Extremely selfish.

uuddlrlrbaba 18 hours ago|||
Is this your first introduction to an insurance pool?
matchbok3 11 hours ago||
Not the same at all.
gottorf 19 hours ago|||
This happens in insurance all the time. Healthy people who eat right and exercise subsidize people with poor habits.

It appears to some degree that we as a society do not want risk priced optimally to each individual.

linkregister 19 hours ago||
It is understandable that you think this is the case as someone who is not above the age of 50. You will see that health and life insurance premiums rise precipitously once you reach certain milestones. Once you reach 90 years old, you will find that car insurance companies will discontinue your policy based on a single traffic ticket.

We replaced preexisting condition coverage with age-based tiered pricing. If you doubt me it's trivial to validate this using your state's ACA marketplace.

4d4m 18 hours ago|||
Thanks for clearly stating the danger - your point is reasonable
twobitshifter 16 hours ago|||
Many boomers hated antilock brakes, but insurers gave discounts for having them on your car anyway. I think it’s likely going to be a similar thing with self driving.

Even today, I don’t like the intrusiveness of the insurance monitors you can install on your car today and I am willing to forgo that discount to keep my privacy.

WillPostForFood 19 hours ago|||
<posted from phone while driving through red light>
dzhiurgis 18 hours ago|||
Tesla did something sneaky just few days ago. They added crash avoidance even when FSD is not enabled, but purchased. So in future if they add pay-per-mile option (great for road trips) you'll likely still keep paying for monthly since it offers additional protection even if you prefer driving yourself (which is lol).
vagrantJin 19 hours ago|||
Thats too much of an honest assessment. An age old playbook. I'd like the tech do actually do things that are hard for me, like taking control of the car in a high stress situation. Sub-milisecond reactions to correct for a mistake. Something, anything more useful than a fancier cruise control.
dmurray 18 hours ago||
Your car does that already. It has a superhuman braking system that saves a lot more lives than cruise control, though not quite sub-millisecond in its reaction time.
matchbok3 19 hours ago||
The knee-jerk conspiratorial reactions to new technology is depressing to see on HN. Do better.
nancyminusone 18 hours ago|||
If your knee is just now jerking, you've got a problem with your reflexes. Discussions like this have been happened for 15+ years.
devilsdata 15 hours ago||||
The promise of tech has been that if we let it rip, we'll have a better democracy and living conditions for all. That promise has failed to materialise, for a variety of reasons. There is increased surveillance, enshittification, huge subscription fees, and upward pressure on climate change (directly linked to bitcoin mining then AI data centres). Then you get Musk lobbying against a city's plans to build a public transport network, so he can build an unsafe single-car tunnel for the rich.

I think people are quite justified in being skeptical of new technology, especially when the track record has shown that the promised societal benefits often never actually materialise. Worse, still, the money earned from selling the new technology is used to make conditions worse for most people. Big tech has a lot to answer for.

I'd be less skeptical if the values of tech capitalism shifted to become more pro-human. They really haven't, and they probably won't. So for now, consider me bearish on new tech.

matchbok3 11 hours ago||
Sorry, "tech" is not some catch-all for all the new things. "Tech" has given us wonderful new medicine and safer cars and faster internet.

Subscription fees? So "tech" should make producing a film ... free now? What exactly is your point?

Who exactly promised all these so-called benefits you keep saying you were lied about? The companies make products and services. Many, many people buy those things. Both sides are happy, transaction over. What "greater good" are you complaining about, exactly and who promised it to whom?

BoingBoomTschak 18 hours ago|||
Yeah, it's just "new technology". Like those Flock cameras, I guess.
SR2Z 15 hours ago|||
Do you care to elaborate further or would you like to just join the nebulous cynicism club and keep on making irrelevant comparisons?
matchbok3 11 hours ago|||
Well, Flock is great and has caught many murderers. What's your point?
MelonArmiger 13 hours ago|
It doesn't really matter whether autonomous cars crash less than human drivers. A computer can never be punished, so a computer must never be allowed to kill any humans.
willmarch 13 hours ago||
How does punishing someone make crashes better? I would rather have fewer crashes because of a system that can't be punished than more crashes with punishment.

Being able to punish someone doesn't change the fact that a crash happened and it doesn't change the fact that someone died. There is a difference between punishment and justice, there is rarely ever perfect justice in life.

The best we can do is mitigate harms as much as possible, and it seems self-driving might be the best mitigation of traffic accidents compared to human drivers.

strbean 13 hours ago|||
Suppose human drivers were killing 1 person every 100 miles driven, and software was killing 1 person every 10 billion miles driven. We should just accept that the human population will be decimated each day for accountability reasons?
abeppu 12 hours ago|||
I do think that currently we're at the stage where Waymo is trying to convince most of the world of the _quality_ of its offering, so for the moment, things are well aligned.

But in 5 years if there are multiple self-driving offerings competing on things like price, door-to-door time, OPEX (e.g. does a camera-only system with no moving parts need less skilled maintenance?), then someone may try to be the cheap but good enough self-driving service that cuts corners -- and we should want some execs to actually go to prison rather than just some cost-of-doing-business fines.

bretthoerner 12 hours ago|||
Where do you live that humans are punished for "accidents"? You can run someone over in America and it's basically an "oopsie, do better next time!"
Svoka 13 hours ago||
* 12 deaths per 100,000 per year, but 4 people go to jail for it

* 2 deaths per 100,000 per year, but no one goes to jail

Because apparently going to jail is important for some reason?

Honestly, choosing jail is somewhat dystopian IMO

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