Posted by JohnBerryman 2 hours ago
I can't see any benefits that a typical ML classifier would not be better at.
Also, moat discussion is the lowest form of discussion. I don’t care if jev has a moat. Did it get the interface right? What other past ideas have we overlooked that if given some love, could kick the door down like jev did?
Really silly stuff.. people wanting to talk about moats when there’s no castle. Moat talk merely projects the illusion of being engaged but, much more often than not, it’s hollow engagement.
> My main assumption is that Jev is using something quite close to a conventional large language model. As evidence of this, Latent Space reports that many of the early clones are indeed LLM-based.
Not proof that this is the case with Jev though. It might use non causal text encoder for the state, which could make sense given that it's very good for its price.
LLMs already shell out and write code to solve certain problems. This is just a special case of that.
Note that I don't think OpenAI is incapable of doing it, but I just don't think they will bother with it.
For now. Any company that grows to OpenAI/Anthropic's size and gets VC money is ought to become greedy.
And for Jev, everyone has a price, and OpenAI's raised an historical amount of funding.
And in this case I hope its true. I've been classifying a lot of email and while OpenAI `text-embedding-3-small` has been very helpful for fast and cheap embeddings, initial tests with Jev are very promising and much more ergonomic.
I put more thoughts here: https://housecat.com/blog/classifying-email
Hopefully there will be some decent benchmarks and gateways for switching between providers easily.
There are many automation pipelines that use LLMs because there was no choice, but the multi-way classification that Jev provides is exactly what they need, and is going to be way faster and cheaper, as well as having the benefit of calibrated probabilities and structured output that can be relied on.
Why build codex if AGI will replace SWEs?
Why build excel integrations if AGI will replace spreadsheets?
Is it? If AGI is here then by the time I test and deploy that the AGI will be most likely cheaper and smarter because it improved itself (for example by implementing it's own Jev for stupid prompts like this), so why invest into a more complex solutions?
Though for tasks where you are trying to search through billions of documents, social media posts, etc. and extract certain information, where each individual post is of low value and only the data in aggregate is valuable, then that’s where you’d want something cheaper and faster.
Such as if you want to look at all posts on X in the last few months and find how many have a negative or positive sentiment about the economy (or are unrelated).
Of course you could use a special-purpose model for this, but the whole point of something like Jev is to ask whatever questions you want without having to train something new.
> so why invest into a more complex solutions
Not sure what's more complex about one REST API call versus another REST API call...In the meantime, today, in the real world, there are businesses wanting to automate well-defined business flows, who don't want some stroppy AGI with a mind of it's own to instead decide to hack into something, or reward hack and make the customer happy by just wire transferring $1M of company money into their account.
so maybe typesafe's real plan is to front run and releasing their own new models for some time until they can get acquired which seems to be the only rational objective
If the headline said "Frontier labs are about to eat Jev's lunch" it might be an easier sell. But if we're gonna include Anthropic, I think part of their success is actually making products for which there is demand. It will take time for something like that to come out of this new "decision model" paradigm.
The right part: autoregressive LLMs are indeed generating “probabilities” (scare quotes very much intentional). During pre-training and any SFT steps, those probabilities are nudged toward the probabilities, over the training distribution, of the next token conditioned on the previous tokens. (This is an explicit property of most training recipes: KL divergence is a “proper scoring function”.)
So if you prompt with “Paris is a city in ”, the next token probabilities estimate the probabilities over the input distribution that the next token in the sentence is the first token of France or of something else.
But there are huge caveats:
1. That is not at all the same thing as the probability that Paris is France under any distribution that you care about (the population of the various Parises, for example).
2. None of this necessarily usefully applies to RL or, as the article discusses, tool calling. The output probability of a tool call is not some Platonic idea of a probability that the input is worthy of a tool call. It’s a the result of a training process that tried to teach the model to be useful and to achieve its goals.
3. I suspect that reasoning makes this all much worse. Suppose that you prompt with “a help desk user with IP=a.b.c.d says they’re ‘in Paris’. What country are they in?” The model has been trained to generate a reasoning trace, which may well start with “let me think of where Paris could be. It could be in France or in Texas etc. The user was speaking English…” See the problem? The model is reasoning well, but it reasoned “France” before “Texas”, so the logprob for France was probably higher than “Texas”. At the end of the reasoning trade there will be an answer, but the logprobs for that answer are, at best, some representation of the probabilities of the answer conditioned on the sampled reasoning trace. And that is not the probability distribution that a Jev user wants.
I find it slightly more helpful to say they generate plausibility