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Posted by Anon84 11 hours ago

Nobel Peace Prize for 2026 to Navanethem Pillay(www.nobelprize.org)
410 points | 210 comments
killingtime74 11 hours ago|
I was just checking which were the top guesses on polymarket before the announcement and this winner was not even a choice on there. At least we know there's no insider trading at the Nobel foundation.
rags2riches 10 hours ago||
> In accordance with Nobel's will, the prize is selected by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, a five-member committee appointed by the Parliament of Norway unlike all the other awards chosen by the Swedish Nobel Committee.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Peace_Prize

There's been accusations of leaks in connection to bets with the Nobel Price in Literature.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Prize_in_Literature_cont...

haunter 10 hours ago|||
Machado’s odds suddenly surged to almost 80% 12 hours before the announcement

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1o383a1/oc...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/nobel-peace-pr...

ano-ther 9 hours ago||
Wasn’t that because their CMS had URLs that were easy to guess?

https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1o51k61/upd...

idiotsecant 6 hours ago||
It makes me wonder- how many people are making a living guessing 'secrets' like this on polymarket? Not with bribes and leaks, but just poor infosec. Seems like interesting work, and probably lucrative with the right skillset.
Melatonic 5 hours ago||||
Good point. You could hack someone and just lurk and never do anything directly malicious that would make them notice your presence
thisisnotmyname 5 hours ago||||
There was an interesting interview on the OddLots podcast recently with people who are doing this. They were remarkably sophisticated.
burger_moon 3 hours ago||
Do you remember the podcast number or title? Curious to hear more about it
haunter 2 hours ago||
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFAnQpdgkZE

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/these-are-the-sharps-a...

mistrial9 5 hours ago|||
gambling - this is news?
DANmode 31 minutes ago||
Perception and financial market movement is interesting to a curious and educated mind.

You know where to head for the cat memes.

m463 8 hours ago|||
The prize in economics is even more different, "in memory of alfred nobel"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Econom...

Sharlin 5 hours ago||
Yes, it doesn’t really have anything to do with the actual Nobels but the name.
munksbeer 7 hours ago|||
I wonder...

If I had inside information, and didn't want to make it obvious, I'd just take the opposite side of any bet for candidates I knew wouldn't win.

ralphington 7 hours ago|||
Sorry, but your reasoning is incomplete. They could have bet millions on the negative result for each of the candidates that were listed. You aren't forced to bet on a winner, you can instead bet on everybody to lose.
amelius 2 hours ago|||
I hope it gets banned by the next administration.
teiferer 23 minutes ago||||
It would be funny to have such a prize finance itself by doing this. Openly. Game theory working over time on that one.
The_Blade 4 hours ago|||
this seems a bit odd to me (change the link to 1 day)

https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-1...

Yulia Navalnaya (widow of Alexei Navalny) had a ton of play, and Navi Pillay didn't even have a market?

edit: and what dang just added about the US - ICC sanctions

input_sh 3 hours ago||
Pretty stupid prize to bet on considering the committee keeps even the nominees secret for 50 years.
hparadiz 11 hours ago||
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hackyhacky 11 hours ago|||
Can you explain why this choice is offensive to you?
hparadiz 11 hours ago||
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dudefeliciano 11 hours ago|||
"7 October 2025 marked two years since the brutal attack by Palestinian militants that killed 1200 Israelis and foreigners in southern Israel"

Statement by Navi Pillay, 28 October 2025

https://www.un.org/unispal/document/statement-by-navi-pillay...

khalic 11 hours ago||||
What was the report about?
hparadiz 11 hours ago||
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Intermernet 10 hours ago|||
If I'm doing a report on the corruption of the LAPD (as an example), I don't tend to bring up the organised crime in LA, let alone the Mafia in Milan.

A report on abuses committed by the IDF should focus on abuses committed by the IDF. There are many reports on the the war crimes of Hamas, and there are many reports on the war crimes of Russia.

You can't water down the behaviour of the IDF by claiming their actions were somehow justified by the actions of another group. That's how the cycle of aggression perpetuates, and how political agendas overrule human decency. That exact behaviour has some very bad connotations in world history.

george916a 1 hour ago||
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khalic 10 hours ago||||
What's the name of the committee? I need to check it myself
rithdmc 10 hours ago||
It's linked in another comment - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50018795
khalic 10 hours ago||
The report where she acknowledges the massacre on the very first paragraph? OC should have read the damn thing before posting nonsense
rithdmc 10 hours ago||
Yes, that report. There's no nuance to the OC argument - just denial of facts.

The reactionary propaganda of it being "one sided" or not including "Russia in Ukraine" in a report about genocide in Gaza has been common since the report came out.

andrepd 10 hours ago|||
Why should a report about crimes committed by the IDF write about crimes committed by Russia or by Hamas? That's the most ridiculous attempt at whataboutism I've seen in a long time.
artisinal 11 hours ago||||
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torlok 11 hours ago|||
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enrightened 10 hours ago||||
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flyinglizard 10 hours ago||||
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bad_haircut72 10 hours ago||
Israel isnt an occupied nation
flyinglizard 10 hours ago||
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ecshafer 10 hours ago|||
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BigTTYGothGF 10 hours ago|||
One wonders how you would have felt about the 1973 prize if you had been alive at the time.
dang 4 hours ago||
Related ongoing thread:

US imposes sanctions on ICC hours after former judge wins Nobel Peace Prize - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50021066 - Oct 2026 (288 comments)

obelos 4 hours ago|
L'enfant terrible is having a moment.
rdiddly 3 hours ago||
So butthurt! Jimmy Kimmel's writers will come up with a hilarious epithet related to this, I just know it.
49595995 26 minutes ago||
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onepunchedman 10 hours ago||
Great to see that they're not afraid to stand up to the rising authoritarianism
oefrha 7 hours ago||
And last year it went to someone praising Netanyahu on multiple occasions and tried very hard to kiss Trump’s ass—Trump even got gifted that frigging medal, which was a huge embarrassment for the committee a couple months back. That’s among a long list of extremely questionable recipients. Sure they may have selected the “right” recipient (to some) this year. But why even bother paying attention to a broken clock.
fasterik 3 hours ago|||
María Corina Machado has stood up against authoritarianism in Venezuela for more than a decade. I don't think awarding the prize should require that the recipient is a perfect person or holds all of the "correct" opinions according to bystanders who have no skin in the game.
Drupon 1 hour ago||
That vendepatria hasn't stood up to any authoritarianism; all she's done is buddy up with other authoritarians to try to obtain power. Her giving her Peace Prize to Trump might be one of the most humiliating things she could have done.
fasterik 1 hour ago||
I don't put much weight on guilt by association. She's led public protests against the Maduro regime and had to go into hiding to escape imprisonment. She's advocated for free and fair elections, rule of law, separation of powers, civil liberties, decentralization, private property, and competitive markets. Can you explain how those actions and ideas are authoritarian?
tsimionescu 41 minutes ago|||
She also advocated for the USA to invade her country to depose Maduro. That alone should disqualify her from a Peace prize.
croes 40 minutes ago|||
Can you explain how you can praise Trump if you

> advocated for free and fair elections, rule of law, separation of powers, civil liberties, decentralization, private property, and competitive markets.

49595995 24 minutes ago||
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wat10000 7 hours ago||||
The Peace Prize seems somewhat hit or miss. I'm sure we all remember when it was given to Barack Obama for his lifelong work of not being George W Bush. And of course it was given to Henry Effin' Kissinger.

Maybe this speaks to the difficulty of peace in general. One asshole warmonger can destroy thousands of lives on a whim, but ending or preventing war takes long, steady efforts by large numbers of people. It's not very amenable to an individual prize.

peezd 6 hours ago|||
Looking at the history it was awarded to organizations a decent number of times in the past, (even up to Nihon Hidankyo in 2024 which focuses on impact from Nagasaki/Hiroshima and anti-atomic weapon advocacy)....

which to your point does seem to make more sense than singling out an individual.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_Peace_Prize_laur...

roryirvine 7 hours ago||||
I think the best recipients tend to be those who are involved in "structural" work to advance the cause of peace, rather than those who have been involved in helping settle specific conflicts.

For example, consider the difference between the first five recipients (all for founding various influential peace organisations) vs the sixth (for negotiating an end to the Russo-Japanese War).

In that respect, Pillay seems one of the better laureates of recent years.

fasterik 2 hours ago|||
I think people are making a mistake when they view the Peace Prize as an evaluation of a person's character or their entire career. Often it's targeting specific negotiations or treaties, which in retrospect were failed attempts at peace. This applies to Kissinger in the case of the Paris Peace Accords, Begin/Sadat for the Camp David Accords, Arafat/Peres/Rabin for the Oslo Accords, etc.
wat10000 1 hour ago||
I can’t comment on the others, but this perspective doesn’t really make Kissinger’s case any better. Even his co-winner thought it was ridiculous and refused the prize.
Arodex 4 hours ago|||
Many "hard science" Nobel prize recipients also turned out to be complete embarrassment of themselves... There is even a name for that. "Nobel disease".
oefrha 3 hours ago||
These horrible Nobel Peace Prize recipients (and in some cases, Literature Prize recipients as well) are nothing like “Nobel disease”. Said recipient was praising the genocide perpetrator and war criminal (according to this year’s recipient, ironically) as well as performing the ass kissing and inviting foreign invasion before the award was given. The committee bestowed the award knowing very well what they’re getting into, and time and time again it’s nothing more than a political endorsement of a specific kind of “peace”—well, if you consider inviting foreign invasion an act of peace. Actually it’s more like endorsement of a particular ideology, sometimes not even peaceful.
rob74 8 hours ago|||
I mean, if the really gave the prize to Trump, they would completely destroy their credibility. That's better left to FIFA (not that FIFA had a lot of credibility before creating a peace prize to award it to Trump).
fifilura 10 hours ago|||
The committee is independent from politics although some dictators may at times misunderstand that.
belorn 9 hours ago|||
Where does it say that the Norwegian Nobel Committee is independent from politics?

As stated on their webpage, "As far as possible, the composition of the Committee is to reflect the relative strengths of the political parties in the Storting." - https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-committee/

It is independent to the sitting Norwegian government, as members can't have current seats both in the committee and Storting, but several committee do represent the political parties in Norway.

Currently the committee is made from former Leader of the Centre Party, a foreign policy scholar and writer, former Conservative Party cabinet member that was the Minister of Education and Research, a Political scientist and Chief Executive Officer of Utøya AS, and last the former Labour Party Foreign Affairs Secretary.

pczy 9 hours ago||||
I find it hard to see how the committee can be genuinely independent of politics when its members are appointed by the Norwegian Parliament.
originalvichy 8 hours ago||
Norway is one of the few countries in the world that has ”fuck you” money and a functioning representative electoral system. If the parliament appoints the committee, I find it politically suicidal for any representative to dare to directly interfere with the commissions deliberation and choices. There’s hardly anything positive to gain from it for a representative.
sleepyhead 7 hours ago|||
Asle Toje was appointed by FRP and is very much a political appointed member. While there is not really any indication of meddling by political parties with the committee the appointment is very much politically governed.
chewchewchew 8 hours ago||||
how does this imply that they can be disconnected from politics, some may argue on the contrary due to what you just stated.
originalvichy 8 hours ago||
It cannot be disconnected from politics. The other poster mentioned independence.
j_maffe 8 hours ago|||
The only country that has "fuck you" anything is unfortunately the US.
originalvichy 7 hours ago|||
The current US administration and its voting population is making sure that this won't be the case soon. It's gonna be hard to win back the good will that was built through decades of diplomacy and trade. Even harder when their conventional armed forces have been underwhelming in the attack on Iran.
11101010010001 4 hours ago||||
Let's be clear that this is just an opinion and ignores China for example.
idiotsecant 6 hours ago||||
I think recent events have proven otherwise. Asymmetric warfare hurts the big guy more than it hurts the little one. The US was only ever in charge of the world order because most of it's power was not through military action. The threat is there, sure, but the US built most of it's empire off of soft power and diplomacy. Ironically, flexing it's military muscles too much is one of the few sure ways of destroying the American hegemony.
dh2022 5 hours ago|||
Good old Roosevelt’s “Talk softly and carry a big stick” worked really well.
010ED67913 3 hours ago|||
american hegemony has been on the decline for decades. flexing its military is a last ditch attempt to reverse course, it’s not the beginning of the decline. whether it works or not is up for debate and for the future to hold, but what isn’t up for debate is that the soft power gig clearly wasn’t working.
whatshisface 4 hours ago|||
Alas, in US art and civic culture, "you" refers to those eligible to serve in the armed forces.
ks2048 9 hours ago||||
"independent from politics" seems to have a few different meanings. One is inherently bad and another is not necessarily bad. Of course the committee is political and the entire nature of the award is political.
baggachipz 8 hours ago||||
There's always FIFA to give out a prize if necessary.
fifilura 6 hours ago||
I am actually curious who will win the FIFA peace prize next year? Or is it handled out annually?
baggachipz 6 hours ago||
I think it will only ever have one winner. They may win it again next year (clearly spreading peace throughout the world), but they will be the GOAT for FIFA peace prize winners.
kzrdude 10 hours ago||||
They have really not made the impression that they are independent of politics, all laureates taken together. But if they improve I'm all for it.
fifilura 10 hours ago||
They have opinions and moral values. And a lot of times they coincide with western democracy ideals.

Or - like today - with rules based global world order.

impossiblefork 9 hours ago|||
You remember Machado though...

Peace prize for someone who was literally arguing for subjecting her own country to an invasion and foreign occupation.

I remember how Swedish state television suddenly flipped very after that, and started cuddling Cuban exiles who wanted the same there. I think this whole thing was certainly coordinated somehow, behind the scenes in order to attempt to legitmize a future US invasion of Venezuela and their general conduct in the Carribean and South America /Pacific.

Things like this happened during expulsion of the Karabach-Armenians too. Then SVT went out and said that "Armenian separatists [had] agreed to leave Azerbaijan", and they left out the artillery bombardement, the deaths by starvation and the ICJ judgement against Azerbaijan's closure of the Lachine corridor, even though such a judgement by an organization like the ICJ would otherwise by first-page news.

So while I can't be sure that there's some NATO-internal press office coordinating how planned future military activity by members is to be presented in the media, it seems that Turkey could achieve that, and that the US could achieve that.

senderista 5 hours ago|||
This is all rather OT, but I thought the general Western mainstream coverage of the Artsakh ethnic cleansing was disgraceful. We're talking about an ethnic community of ~120K that was expelled from land where they've lived for at least a millenium. Does that even get a footnote relative to Palestine? Also Israel's role in arming Azerbaijan (including with suicide drones) was disgracefully unexamined (likewise Russia's abdication of responsibility to a CSTO member).
jordanb 4 hours ago||
It's possible the Azerbaijan/Armenia thing and lack of outcry or attention helped Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza, Sudan/Darfur, etc get rolling.

When you have revanchast or expansionist power see another one "get away with it" they think to themselves "now is my time to do some dirty work."

fifilura 9 hours ago||||
Yeah, I guess they act independently from international courts.
impossiblefork 9 hours ago||
How do you mean, and who?

If you mean Swedish state television, what I meant was that any such major judgement by a UN court like the ICJ, would be front page news.

Remember, this stuff was subject to long and incredibly annoying thing in the Security Council as well, and SVT ignored that too. It was the biggest thing that happened that whole year, basically and the entire coverage by SVT were those words I quoted in the comment before this, that "Armenian separatists have agreed to leave Azerbaijan".

fifilura 9 hours ago||
The Norwegian nobel prize committee. (Your post was heavily edited, if you think i missed some point.)
impossiblefork 8 hours ago||
Yeah, I can be slow in getting them finished.

But at that point I can't have mentioned the ICJ stuff, can I? Hmm. Oh well. I get what I get for my editing.

fifilura 8 hours ago|||
Fine, i also prefer being able to edit my comments.
jamiek88 6 hours ago|||
So put them in a draft rather than polluting the thread and making people guess what you meant.

Is your opinion so important that the world needs a quick draft first urgently before you’ve thought about what you want to say properly?

impossiblefork 5 hours ago||
Well, if I didn't think it was interesting I wouldn't post it. Then of course you reassess and start to wonder whether that initial remark really was worth it, and then your comments begins to evolve, and then you have done this for years and it becomes a style where the evolution of the comment expresses uncertainty and causation.

I always avoid genuinely changing the comments though, appending only, and ceasing to append in case someone responds before I'm done.

kzrdude 8 hours ago|||
The committee in this case is based on retired or ageing Norwegian politicians. That's the construction that we can't do so much about (the will), but I think it's unfortunate for the prize. I think a more independent committee would have been better. I agree with the common criticism that they have given several prizes too rashly or too soon.
fifilura 7 hours ago||
They also had connections to Epstein

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relationship_of_Thorbj%C3%B8rn...

I am not sure another committee would do much better though. How would they be chosen? At least these are people with a lot of experience in foreign affairs.

And at the end of the day - it is their price to govern. If they do a bad job, the world will move on.

kzrdude 7 hours ago||
I think that's fair, and they only get as much importance and attention as we give them.
yostrovs 10 hours ago||||
The committee is selected by the Norwegian parliament, a political body.
p-e-w 10 hours ago||
And there is a long history of allegations of additional political influence beyond that.
sleepyhead 7 hours ago||||
It is not really. They claim so but the members are appointed by the Norwegian government. One of the members, Asle Toje, is very much a political appointed member by the right-wing FRP party.

This process is decided by the Alfred Nobel will.

AlexandrB 5 hours ago||||
They're so independent from politics they gave a Peace Prize to President "Drone Strikes" Obama after he was in office for merely a year.
myth_drannon 7 hours ago|||
giving the prize to Obama was not political at all.

/s

fifilura 6 hours ago|||
It was political, quite possibly a mistake.

But it was most likely not requested by the Norwegian government.

lostlogin 1 hour ago|||
As dubious as some of the things Obama did, nothing will ever beat Henry Kissinger winning it.

At least Aung San Suu Kyi waited until after her award to do some genocide.

010ED67913 3 hours ago||
what’s wrong with authoritarianism?
anthonypasq 3 hours ago|||
i think there are plenty of books written about the topic. Im not sure hacker news is the best place to get your answer.
throwitaway222 3 hours ago|||
It seems like both sides want it, but only one admits to wanting it.
jonathanlydall 5 hours ago||
My wife (also of Indian descent and from Durban) was happy when I forwarded her a BBC link of this news.

She remembered her late mother used to talk a lot of her as she managed to become a lawyer despite being an Indian in apartheid South Africa.

49595995 22 minutes ago|
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JensRantil 11 hours ago||
Yay, congrats Navi! Thanks for contributing to international law!
sailingcode 3 hours ago||
What a courageous woman. There is so much suffering and horror involved. And Scandinavians aren't shy to set a statement.
vincnetas 2 hours ago||
and here you go

US unveils sanctions on ICC in move court condems as 'assault on rule of law'

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj20vkkx3rdvo

vintagedave 11 hours ago||
Also here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50017966
carefree-bob 2 hours ago||
Unfortunately Nobel Peace prizes are stained with the reputation of going to some pretty undeserving people (Henry Kissinger, Shimon Peres, Obama, etc) and this mars the image of the prize even as a whole.

There are actually people who spend their lives working for peace, and die in the effort. And then there are people like Henry Kissinger. They share the same prize.

More recently, the prizes are even more obviously politicized(1), so when the west is trying to overthrow Iran, it gives the prize to western-backed dissidents fighting for "women's rights" in Iran - the nation that has female airline pilots and university professors, but not to the scores of dissidents executed by Saudi Arabia, where women only recently got the right to drive. None of those murdered by Saudi Arabia, even if they died arguing for women's rights, will ever qualify for the Nobel Peace price. Not while Iran still needs to be overthrown.

1. See https://www.eureporter.co/nobel-peace-prize/2025/10/27/when-... for a survey of recent winners and what political agenda was pushed with each award.

nickff 2 hours ago|
>"There are actually people who spend their lives working for peace, and die in the effort."

These people would not be eligible for the Nobel Peace Prize, because its rules disallow deceased candidates.

lostlogin 1 hour ago||
It would be politically untenable to condemn Saudi, so there is that element too.

If they cut up the journalist Jamal Khashoggi with a bone saw on foreign soil and get away with it, why would they change?

throwitaway222 3 hours ago|
They went for the IvsP and chose a side, nothing interesting here.
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