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Posted by ianand 3 hours ago

Cognitive Mercantilism: AI panic resembles fears of early capitalism(contraptions.venkateshrao.com)
59 points | 55 comments
numpad0 44 seconds ago|
[delayed]
samrus 1 hour ago||
I think this analogy breaks down when considering that the agricultural revolution gave regular people more time to demand new things, but also more time to produce new things, and thus maintained or even increased their economic leverage

> My inability to produce food is economically almost irrelevant. What matters is that I can consume it, enjoy it, develop tastes for it, and devote my energies to other things.

What the author misses is that what mattered more was that people could now produce more things. People were free from manual labour to perform intellectual labour. But what do people do to produce things when intellectual labour is automated? And with emboddied AI, skilled manual labour too?

You need to produce things to be able to reap the fruits of economic progress. Thats what most working people did after the agricultural revolution. What will we produce in a post AI world? And if only the people who own AI will be able to produce things, then why would they give us any power or leverage in the economy?

reasonableklout 1 hour ago||
I suspect the author would respond with some form of "displaced people without capital will take on roles in the relational economy, or as human liability for the robots." I agree the material leverage of such jobs seems radically diminished.
dot42 56 minutes ago|||
> And if only the people who own AI will be able to produce things, then why would they give us any power or leverage in the economy?

Nailed it! It’s a too powerful resource to be privately held.

jongjong 21 minutes ago|||
Surely it will also free people up to apply their intelligence (or stupidity) towards other things.

It's concerning because there is already way too much 'intelligence' in this society and most of it is used to propagate falsehoods, irrationality and to manipulate others in counter-productive ways. I hope AI educates people and doesn't merely steer them down deeper into their echo-chambers. That said, I also really hope that AI doesn't just bring everyone into alignment and agreement about ideas which aren't true. There are significant threats with both extremes.

akanet 58 minutes ago|||
I think you did not read the post, or else missed its point entirely. VGR speaks directly to the induced demand of greater access to intelligence, namely, that people may redouble their efforts given that now so many more things are within reach with the aid of AI.
lynx97 44 minutes ago|||
Well, regarding manual labour. Putting aisde the "is working with AI drying out your brain" discussion... Quite frankly, even fast touch-typists like me will never outpace an LLM write a few obvious functions... Isn't that also more or less the same thing as being freed of manual labour. How much of the thinking/design process your outsource to your LLM is a totally different discussion. See vibe-coding vs "pair" programming. But all that aside, I very much feel like LLMs are pretty much saving me a lot of manual typing.
logicchains 1 hour ago|||
>But what do people do to produce things when intellectual labour is automated?

They do what AI can't do, entrepreneurialism, because AI doesn't have property rights. Like back to the 1800s when most Americans were self-employed, not working for large corporations, because corporate cog-in-the-machine work can be done better by AI. With AI it's far easier to run your own business than at any time in history.

chrystalkey 1 hour ago|||
Are you really arguing the singular benefit of being human that AI can't take away is a specific concept of law? And then say that running your business with AI is easier than ever? So if we are reduced to running our own business, and AI can do that pretty good, what do we do?
lioeters 1 hour ago||||
> back to the 1800s when most Americans were self-employed

They were mainly wage employees and factory workers by the end of that century due to industrialization. And "AI" is the industrialization of intellectual work.

chii 1 hour ago||||
> far easier to run your own business than at any time in history.

But let me play the devil's advocate and argue the point: who will the business sell to, if most people are not in a position with wealth to spare to buy from your business?

IndeanCondor 1 hour ago|||
... What do you believe 1800 America was like? Because it was govt backed credit sales, land grants and pre emption rights that gave the land to people. The "self employment" was subsistence agriculture on the granted land in the frontier. The land was granted by a mechanism very similar to the volkisch lebensraum.

Clearly a relevant and replicable analogy to AI making entrepreneurship easier /s

Your version of 1800s North America is a myth.

atleastoptimal 1 hour ago||
150IQ comment
zkmon 1 hour ago||
The analogy between farm work and intelligence work breaks down at their transition continuation, which the author missed, I believe.

When the people were were freed from farm labour, due to farm automation, people could find another economic activity which required the other capacity of humans - intelligence.

The transition from muscle-power work to mind-work was meaningful, as both muscle and mind were attributes of humans, creating demand for humans having mind power instead of muscle power.

But the continuation of that transition breaks down. Muscle power -> Mind power -> ???

Those 3 questions marks at the end are what's scaring people, and what is threatening the stability of the transition from mind work. If both muscle power and mond power are not things of value, how would the humanity progress to create value? Who buys it? Why do they buy it? Who hires whom? Why?

shoobiedoo 55 minutes ago||
Yes, if you look at the examples the author used such as Indian cotton or tobacco as drivers of increased voluntary labor, both of those carried immediate intangible value as status symbols or bragging rights on top of their material value. It further stratified society which led to more people wanting more stuff and... on and on. What is this cognitive surplus value going to bring? I don't get it.

I guess their point is that, for example-- instead of requiring heaps of study and a genius mind to learn to how to reverse engineer complex things over the course of years, their intelligence can go to something that... AI can't do yet?

zkmon 48 minutes ago||
The author declares that it is fully written by AI using a few prompts. So, not surprising that the whole article is so weak at the core.
aswegs8 35 minutes ago|||
Will power seems to have become the new differentiator.
pinkgolem 1 hour ago|||
I mean some argue the 3d is creativity.

But I am sure people had the same question marks back then, for what's comes next

decidu0us9034 44 minutes ago||
For many here the answer seems to be that everyone will be product manager or a capitalist (one suspects the people saying this are product managers and capitalists).
arisAlexis 1 minute ago||
Category error in thinking of this article
TheWrongGuy 18 minutes ago||
A nice article by bosses for bosses that tells a nice clean story that goes to great lengths to avoid any confrontations with any part of reality that might make them uncomfortable.
bozdemir 1 hour ago||
People need to think about the future now, it is more urgent than before, we have to decide what to do with our life when (assuming a positive future rather than skynet) AI does the stuff better than us in every category. We have to find a meaning. I know this comment isn't directly related to the AI trades, but every subject regarding AI keeps reminding me of the future we are not ready. I can't imagine what type of professions completely made unnecessary by AI in the following 5 years.
logicchains 1 hour ago|
>AI does the stuff better than us in every category

Current AI is never going to do better than us in every category, it can only do better in us in categories where it's possible to generate an infinite amount of verifiable synthetic data (math and programming). AI is still just as bad at sales, marketing, writing and anything involving human subjective appeal as it was a year ago. And it's fundamentally handicapped in being unable to acquire new domain knowledge that doesn't fit in a few hundred thousand tokens of context.

sgsjchs 21 minutes ago|||
> AI is still just as bad at sales, marketing, writing and anything involving human subjective appeal as it was a year ago.

All of these have objective metrics (units sold, clicks, likes, etc) and are thus verifiable in principle.

entropi 43 minutes ago|||
> Current AI is never going to do better than us in every category, it can only do better in us in categories where it's possible to generate an infinite amount of verifiable synthetic data (math and programming).

Even if this turns out to be true, I don't think it will necessarily matter.

So much money was already burned, by so powerful people in incestuous relationship with governments, that I don't think this is an important point anymore.

dot42 59 minutes ago||
The problem with AI if compared to capitalism is that we start where the same players that won capitalism starts as winners and the rest of us cannot enter the race.

AI is not a ”fair” resource. Normal people cannot compete. We can rent capacity of the ones owning the data centres. But we will never have access to the best models. Never be able to afford outbound data centres. We can at any moment lose access to the resource. And the ones controlling the resource will be in control of everything. And it will be privately held. Fantastic.

flufluflufluffy 27 minutes ago||
I’m gonna go eat my banana which was produced by an invisible matter producer that doesn’t require power, and think about what I could be thinking about.
lampe3 18 minutes ago||
Capitalism right now and always has worked as designed a few winners a lot of people in "jobs" that are bordering on being a slave. Just that now they have technology colonialist like the Spanish or brit's or later us did not have. An error is also that colonialism has never stopped. Just because we don't have boats. You can now call it neo colonialism with trade deals from big power full states with big armies forcing smaller countries on there trade deals.
eesmith 56 minutes ago|
> As international trade expanded, ordinary Britons began developing tastes for goods that had previously been luxuries reserved for the wealthy. Tobacco, tea, sugar, and colorful Indian cottons were among the commodities that helped create a new consumer culture. People began wanting things that were neither necessities of subsistence nor traditional markers of aristocratic status. And they were willing to voluntarily work harder to get them.

Well, look at that. An essay about the benefits of slave trade and colonialism, while making no mention of slave labor or oppressed people.

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