Posted by kristianp 3 days ago
That's newsworthy, but also not extremely unusual.
The more interesting detail than nasdaq overall is just what sectors are having bad days and how concentrated that is. Seems to be predominantly AI companies, which is very relevant to the HN crowd.
Stock volatility is typically clustered. So, we can't make this type of claim. Just like this statement is flawed: Chicago experiences below freezing weather 10% of the time, so every 10 days you see below freezing weather.
Markets move. Sometimes they move more than normal. This is one of those times.
Will it keep moving? Will it crash? Maybe! But what it has done right now is not that.
Although I didn't claim "twice every year like clockwork" in my top-level comment either. It's just a very basic statement of the base rate.
Make it eight-times every four years or sixteen-times every eight years. Or maybe "Four-times every other year, in a clustered fashion".
I don't think any of that really changes the point.
It's more noteworthy when it happens the more clustered it tends to be. If it were typical that we'd go ~7 years with none then have ~16 in a single year, it would be huge news when it happens.
A more interesting stat is the current CAPE.
https://www.thetrading.tools/shiller-cape
It is at levels only seen three times in the last century.
If those 147 4% drops actually happened every 100 days or so then it's not newsworthy or interesting, just an occasional correction.
If those 147 days happened all in a row that would mean the nasdaq dropped to 0.25% of its original value in about 4 months, which would be catastrophic.
The real answer is presumably somewhere in the middle, but the specifics are what determines if it's worth noting or not.
At the end of the day, everyone's retirement is tied to the SP500 and it will always go up.
Not when more retired boomers are pulling more money out than GenZ/Alphas are putting in.
That isn't where the money propping up the SP500 is coming from. It is a ponzi scheme, yes. It is held up by $40,000,000,000,000 in national debt. That can is getting kicked down the line to one or two generations that haven't been born yet.
You and I don't need to worry about it because we will be long gone by then.
All we know is that Elon isn't getting any more freshly minted currency.
June had two similar NASDAQ corrections, July had one as well. Sept was flat, but October was a straight downward trend. On the flip side, April to June was a constantly increasing.
The last time the NASDAQ was this low was all the way back in April 2026...
People seem to call it a "correction" to make themselves feel better but they're all just crashes to me, and crashes are normal
3 different pods are being liquidated that i've heard of. And the data center trade has been unwound in just 2 days is a pretty violent shock.
Lots of rumors about situational awareness also in alot of trouble. I feel for this guy a bit. He did really well to get a good slug of Anthropic shares that made his investors alot of money.
But since about July when it was clear that Anthropic was done going up like a rocket ship his investors have probably been hounding him about how he's going to make money outside of Anthropic.
his first foray into the public markets was a disaster and might set a record for fastest wipe out from start to finish that forced him to have to sell his public book escape a wind up.
But due to Anthropic taking a possible IPO valuation cut he's had to go back to the public markets at the worst time and if rumours going around today are correct, he's looking at how to liquidate his public portfolio for the second time in the quarter.
It's very very far from being unwound. If (or when) it does, many companies in the space will be down 90-100%. Definitely not today.
The grind-down has barely started. We were waiting for a catalyst and it was unexpected. The narrative has shifted to a widespread negative ai-vibe and is hard to counter with any amount of propaganda by the pro ai-crowd. Datacenter debt will be repriced and along with that capex-cuts. These take time and have barely started. The markets have smelt that these are around the corner.
Investors are not rationalists or effective altruists. They chase the money. If the fundamentals and DD does not math to allow data centers to be profitable, and governments honor the people's will, they will jump ship and quicker than you think. And if governments do not honor the people's will (which is firmly in opposition to the odious people behind this push) then we have far bigger problems to worry about.
Oh, yeah, sure. They'll get right on that. Patriot act is going away any day now. Climate change and healthcare and judicial / law enforcement reform going to be addressed any second.
Is this true? Coreweave is down ~66% over the last 6 months, with that decline occurring somewhat linearly over that period (i.e. not last 2 days). Very similar chart for Applied Digital.
Sources for what specifically?
If you meant for pods and funds blowing up:
https://x.com/SpecialSitsNews/status/2118415084280242230
Gives a decent list. Though most of the ones i know of are from contacts on the sell side who are assisting with wind downs.
And I don't think i mentioned reddit, you might be replying to the wrong thread?
Troluce and Axebrook had more than $1.5B pulled from them by Millennium.
Walleye is a $17B AUM fund.
> there are like a zillion of these pod shops and tiny firms. doesn't mean much. wake me up when a big fund fails
I get that not everyone knows the industry but consider this your wakeup call:)
This and Arini in the same year is pretty bad for credit managers.
I fully understand that very few people on hackernews actually are in the capital markets and i happen to be one so I'll always have a far better understanding than outsiders like your self.
I'm just trying to provide some colour to people regarding what's happening today and why fund closures are magnifying this.
I am not saying I know it will be fine or I know it will be terrible. I am saying I have lived through many 5%+ drops and they happen on the way up and down.
In the past 5 years the S&P 500 has dropped 5% 1 time. the Nasdaq has done it 3 times.
You are ofcourse welcome to your own definition of a big deal but to me something that happens that rarely is a big deal.
At worst you'd have to agree that hte language is defensible:)
Chips/Memory/data center everything AI has got absolutely destroyed this month.
Look at LITE, FLEX, FIX, TER, WDC, the Kospi.
What is there to feel for him? he took huge bets and lost , although he will still be wealthy no matter how much $ his clients lose. How he got so much attention and money is a mystery; just another example of mediocrity being rewarded. No wonder so many people think society is rigged or screwed. We see in Washington or on Wall Street . The same reckless people keep failing forward, keep being immune to the consequences of their actions and incompetence.
His wife is chief of staff to Dario isn't she? Not saying this guy isn't smart but let's call a spade a spade here.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/leopold-aschenbrenners-situa...
Yeah, but it's up 50% in the last 5 years. 4% drop puts us back where it was, oh, in July of this year.
A few days at > 10% and that's perfectly doable in a week. Unlikely I'll grant you but this is a large move at the top of a bull market amid huge concentration and weakening fundamentals. There are reasons to pay attention to it.
He's an overconfident dipshit who made a few large, successful bets that made heaps of money; but he didn't practice any sort of risk management with his portfolio, and kind of did the opposite.
And despite that failure, he made immense personal wealth and will definitely have the opportunity to run more money in the future.
I'd love to fail as badly as he did.
See https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/04/data-center-ballot-measures-...
A lot of people liked Trump's brash and swaggering personality but not to the point that they stopped caring about their pocketbook.
Trump (come January anyway) is a lame duck now, especially with a blue Congress. He won't get anything substantial through Congress and everyone's attention will will rapidly shift to who is running in 2028. Nobody on the R side will be seeking or hoping for his endorsement; his leverage over them has been neutralized; they will be working on new messaging to get their traditional voters back. That campaign started on Wednesday.
I'm concerned that this might rest too heavily on the presumption of regularity and legality.
There's a lot of (additional) illegal stuff Trump could do if 33 out of ~44 Republican senators are willing to pretend it's not "enough" to remove him from office.
There is no meaningful trend or change that happens after elections. Some sector see some weird shifts that correct generally within days
With all respect, that's ridiculous analysis. Even if that were true, the election was the day BEFORE yesterday! You're telling me that the entire world of trading and investment was unable to see the obvious news on their televisions and needed to wait an entire trading day before issuing the sell orders? No one was able to front run this?
That's just silly, sorry.
You had a good comment until this line.
Almost all of the interconnect backlog is renewables, so this helps renewables far more than it helps fossil interests, but some progressives want to sabotage the bill because it could theoretically help fossil fuel interests. Yet, there's no way a "better" bill would get past filibuster or Trump's veto.
We'll find out if Democrats let the perfect be the enemy of the good enough. Whether they're willing to compromise to get things done.
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/lutnick-defends-trumps-int...
https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/64069897/Paisner_v_...
socialize the losses
we truly have learned nothing :/
And why should it have? Ridiculous to pre-emptively talk about a bailout before a crash has even materialized. Who exactly was going to be bailed out?
Maybe you don't like the possibility of Wall Street planning on a bailout, but they are constantly doing that and they also plant stories / narratives in the media encouraging it and they likely whisper in the ears of their politicians that it will "help save the economy" or whatever the FUD of the day is.
https://democrats-financialservices.house.gov/news/documents...
I'm not going to comment on the AI bubble, nor if this bill would actually have an effect, but I think this certainly will have an effect on Wall Street's behavior.
It's interesting reading the panic then in the comments, and yet now the nasdaq is up 65% from those lows, even with today's drop.
China fosters it intensively at the national level through totalitarianism.
In this rapid social change, democratic procedures may now lose their competitiveness.
AI is not going anywhere and will only grow more and more.
It won't drop off by a cliff, migrating from existing tooling/vendor that works might just not be worth it, but it seems that there will be less and less money in the frontier
But if you look at where the money leaving tech stocks is going, it seems to be rotating into defensive stocks. If that momentum continues, we may have hit a local maxima for a while.
So, approximately how many of those investors are going to lose their jobs and their money for betting on data center buildout while also going about the data center buildout in the most obnoxious, exploitative, electorate-alienating way possible?